Lost Forest After Dark

Wow. Most thought that Obama would sweep the primary states of Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. But to win by nearly 30 points in Virginia and Marland, 50 points in DC? Only the most wild-eyed Obama supporter would have suggested that. Clinton is clearly on the ropes and needs something to quickly change the dynamic of this race.

What has to get the Hillary supporters nervous is that in Virginia and Maryland Obama won constituencies that previously belonged to Clinton, including those making less than $50,000, older people, and Latinos. I read something interesting last night that suggested that lower income and lesser educated voters tend to process election information much later than highly educated, higher income people. Therefore, the lower income people, who have been the backbone of Clinton’s support, first voted for Clinton but as they become better acquainted with Obama, his share of that vote will go up. Not sure if this is true or not but if it is, Clinton is in big trouble. The Wisconsin results next Tuesday will be another test of this theory.

Also in Obama’s speech last night he turned his focus to John McCain as if Obama was the presumptive nominee and is looking ahead to the November election. Of course there is always the danger of looking too far ahead but a Obama-McCain back-and-forth could shunt Clinton to the sidelines. However, the McCain people couldn’t have been too pleased when the news channels went from Obama’s speech to McCain’s. Obama was animated, inspiring, the crowd behind him was a mix of young and old, black and white, men and women. McCain’s speech was somnambular and behind him were a bunch of old white fossils, including Senator John Warner who looked like they just picked up from the morgue. Talk about the future v. the past.

Finally I know it’s not valid to compare primary vote counts to general election vote counts but Tuesday’s results once again shows a definite “enthusiasm gap� between the democrats and republicans. Democrats received twice as many votes as republicans in a bedrock (but changing) red state like Virginia. Obama received more votes than all the republican votes combined and Clinton received a 100,000 more votes than McCain. If the Democrats can keep their supporters this charged up, we are looking at some big wins come November.