If I was a true blogger, I would have had my analysis of the Super Tuesday results posted bright and early Wednesday morning. Alas Thursday lunch is the best I can do. With Mitt Romney dropping out today, it’s more than apparent that McCain is going to be the Republican nominee. Careful what you wish for Republicans… you just might get it.
Also obviously the democratic results were a mixed bag with the vote and delegate totals fractions of a percentage apart from each other. Obama won more states, Clinton won bigger states. What this means is that the two candidates are basically tied. However Obama has the perceived momentum as not even a month ago Clinton was ahead everywhere. That’s not the case now. Also the February states favors Obama. We should see a slow but steady pulling away from Clinton between now and early March. Finally there are a couple of really big, important states at the tail end of this process: Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Right now Clinton looks like she is ahead in those states. I think Obama has to show that he can win a big state in order to close the deal.
I also wanted to point out vote totals and party enthusiasm. In Minnesota, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 3-1 in caucus participation. If you don’t think that scares the bejesus out of Senator Coleman, you’re not paying attention. What’s real interesting is that D’s outvoted R’s in almost every state on Tuesday, including some staunchly red states like Tennessee (100,000 more D’s than R’s), Georgia and even Oklahoma! Obama got 75,000 more votes than Huckabee in Alabama and Obama got more votes than McCain in Oklahoma. Republican strategists looked at these numbers and just cringe. Explains why we are seeing so many retirements on that side of the aisle.
I think Obama v. McCain would be a landslide of epic proportions. I also think Clinton would beat McCain but with a little more blood, sweat, and tears shed along the way. Don’t get caught up in the number crunching that Obama doesn’t do as well with Latinos as Clinton; Clinton doesn’t do as well with white men as Obama, etc. For the most part Democrats are happy with either candidate and will gladly and enthusiastically vote for either candidate this coming November.
What’s your take?