Super Tuesday Wrap-up



If I was a true blogger, I would have had my analysis of the Super Tuesday results posted bright and early Wednesday morning. Alas Thursday lunch is the best I can do. With Mitt Romney dropping out today, it’s more than apparent that McCain is going to be the Republican nominee. Careful what you wish for Republicans… you just might get it.

Also obviously the democratic results were a mixed bag with the vote and delegate totals fractions of a percentage apart from each other. Obama won more states, Clinton won bigger states. What this means is that the two candidates are basically tied. However Obama has the perceived momentum as not even a month ago Clinton was ahead everywhere. That’s not the case now. Also the February states favors Obama. We should see a slow but steady pulling away from Clinton between now and early March. Finally there are a couple of really big, important states at the tail end of this process: Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Right now Clinton looks like she is ahead in those states. I think Obama has to show that he can win a big state in order to close the deal.

I also wanted to point out vote totals and party enthusiasm. In Minnesota, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 3-1 in caucus participation. If you don’t think that scares the bejesus out of Senator Coleman, you’re not paying attention. What’s real interesting is that D’s outvoted R’s in almost every state on Tuesday, including some staunchly red states like Tennessee (100,000 more D’s than R’s), Georgia and even Oklahoma! Obama got 75,000 more votes than Huckabee in Alabama and Obama got more votes than McCain in Oklahoma. Republican strategists looked at these numbers and just cringe. Explains why we are seeing so many retirements on that side of the aisle.

I think Obama v. McCain would be a landslide of epic proportions. I also think Clinton would beat McCain but with a little more blood, sweat, and tears shed along the way. Don’t get caught up in the number crunching that Obama doesn’t do as well with Latinos as Clinton; Clinton doesn’t do as well with white men as Obama, etc. For the most part Democrats are happy with either candidate and will gladly and enthusiastically vote for either candidate this coming November.

What’s your take?


Romney is a d-bag and that photo should be hung from every lamppost.

I'm not so convinced that the primary/caucus turnouts mean that much for their respective parties. There was simply "more at stake" at this stage for the Democrats.

And I think Obama-McCain (or Clinton-McCain) would be closer than you estimate.

I was going to say that primary participation isn't necessarily a reflection on who will vote in November. But I forgot. I am sure McCain will easily take Oklahoma v. Clinton or Obama when it's all said and done. But there is no doubt an enthusiasm gap exists and even Karl Rove himself has noted it as a concern for the R's.

And what Spycake you don't think Obama would beat McCain in a "landslide of epic proportions?" That may have been hyperbole but I don't think McCain is going to wear well over the next 8 months and comparing that old man versus the youth and new ideas of Obama is going to have a major effect on young and new voters.

I'll try to remember this post in November and we can see how overly optimistic I was.

I should have added one other thing. Look at the $$$ raised by Clinton and Obama. About $7.5M each in the 48 HOURS after super tuesday. McCain got kudus for raising $7M in the month of January.

I kind of agree with spycake.

I am NOT at all optimistic that either D candidate would beat McCain in a landslide because recent history shows the D's will do something to screw themselves up.

I do think Obama would do better vs. McCain than Hillary would, though. She's just too polarizing.

I'm also still waiting for these "new ideas" from Obama. His rhetoric is certainly inspiring, but I can't say I've seen much in the way of substance yet.

New ideas? He's for change! He's mixed race! He's articulate! He's cool! The kids love him! How many new ideas do you want?!?


Some policy ideas would be good. I keep hearing how he's going to unify America or something.

Remember the last guy we elected who claimed he was a uniter? :-)


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This page contains a single entry by Freealonzo published on February 7, 2008 1:48 PM.

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