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Minnesota


Collin Peterson's Fundraising Numbers Not a Retirement 'Tell'

Although Democratic alarm bells are ringing, Peterson's off-year fundraising tally is actually up in 2013 compared to his average hauls over the last decade.

On the Hot Seat: US Senate Plurality-Vote Winners

Nearly 40 percent of plurality vote winners of U.S. Senate contests have lost their seat in the next election; three are on the ballot in 2014 (Begich, Franken, Merkley).

100 Years of Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primaries

Gopher State Republicans have not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924.

Minnesota Republican US Senate Primaries by the Numbers

The GOP is coming off its most competitive Senate primary since 1934; Julianne Ortman will become the 10th female GOP U.S. Senate primary candidate if she wins (or ignores) her party's endorsement.

Harry Byrd's Death Leaves 167 Living Ex-Senators

Minnesota has the most living former Senators with eight while six states have only one (Hawaii, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming).

Bachmann Raised More Than $1K Per Day After Retirement Announcement

Bachmann raised more than $1,000 per day in large donor contributions after May 29th - aided by a misleading fundraising message on her campaign website.

The 10 Oldest Freshmen US Representatives in Minnesota History

If Don Shelby ran for the 3rd CD seat and won in 2014 he would be the 4th oldest first-term Minnesota U.S. Representative among the more than 130 to serve the state.

Minnesota's Aging US House Delegation

Minnesota's eight U.S. Representatives are the second oldest delegation in state history and odds are strong they'll set the record in 2014.

John Kline: Six Going on Seven?

Nearly 90 percent of six-term Minnesota U.S. Representatives have been successful in their bids for a 7th term since statehood.

Democracy in Action: Major Party Competition in US House Elections

Indiana has placed Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot in a nation-best 180 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana all tallying 100 or more.

Bachmann's Little Secret: Not Fixated on God, Guns, and Gays

Only one percent of the congresswoman's nearly 600 press releases since 2007 have focused on the "3 Gs" collectively, as well as just one percent on abortion.

How Many Republicans Will Run for Minnesota's 6th CD in 2014?

Less than 5 percent of the 208 Minnesota Republican U.S. House primaries over the last 50 years have fielded three or more candidates on the ballot (and only 7 percent of races without a GOP incumbent).

Jim Abeler: Leading Off the Senate Roll Call Vote in 2015?

Only three U.S. Senators in history had a name earlier in the alphabet than the budding 2014 Republican Senate candidate; no Minnesotan has ever topped the chamber's roll call list.

How Much Money Will Bachmann Raise as a Non-Candidate?

Bachmann is still fundraising on her campaign website with a pitch that Democrats are "trying to defeat her" - even though she is retiring and won't be on the ballot in 2014.

Michele Bachmann's US House Exit in Historical Context

Only 1 in 3 of Minnesota's 134 U.S. Representatives exited the chamber by a manner other than defeat or death, and more than half of these ran for or held prominent political office thereafter.

CT, IL, MN Gubernatorial Races: From 2010 Nail-Biters to 2014 Snoozers?

Since 1900, there have been 18 candidates elected governor by less than one percentage point who won reelection the next cycle by double-digits; could Dan Malloy, Mark Dayton, and Pat Quinn do the same in 2014?

What Are Mark Dayton's True Reelection Odds?

Prognosticators list the Minnesota gubernatorial seat as 'safe' for the incumbent in 2014; history suggests the odds are just shy of that.

Bachmann Fundraising Falls 61 Percent from 2011

Minnesota's famous congresswoman sees her campaign receipts dip by over $1 million compared to the same three-month period during the previous election cycle.

Jim Graves Hopes Second Time's a Charm in Congressional Seat Bid

One in six Minnesota U.S. Representatives in history lost their first general election House race, including three current members of the Gopher State delegation.

Tim Pawlenty Returns to Jeopardy! After Three-Year Hiatus

But a single pop culture moment is unlikely to launch a new political campaign for one of Minnesota's biggest Republican names any time soon.



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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