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Minnesota


MN Senate Election Analysis, Part 2: Norm Coleman’s Metro Slide

On Monday, Smart Politics examined the margin of victory and loss in each county between the DFL candidates in the 2006 gubernatorial and 2008 U.S. Senate races, and found Al Franken most severely underperformed in the Northern counties of the Gopher State vis-à-vis Mike Hatch. Today, in the second part...

MN Senate Election Analysis, Part 1: Franken Underperforms in Northern Minnesota

On the surface, there are several similarities between the 2008 U.S. Senate race and the 2006 gubernatorial race in Minnesota. · Both races featured 1-term Republican incumbents facing reelection in Democratic wave election years and, pending a change of fate in the U.S. Senate recount, Republicans emerged victorious in each...

Even At 42 Percent, Coleman's Performance Historically Strong

Should Republican Norm Coleman prevail in the U.S. Senate recount against DFLer Al Franken over the coming weeks, his reelection will be noteworthy in several respects. First, at 42.0 percent, Coleman will have been elected by the lowest percentage in Minnesota in nearly 80 years and the second lowest in...

Will Pawlenty Run For A Third Term?

After flirting with national office in 2008 – as a purported finalist on John McCain’s short list of Vice-Presidential nominees – Tim Pawlenty has the luxury of governing a state in which gubernatorial elections are conducted in presidential off-year cycles. Governor Pawlenty has stated that he is not going...

How Will the National Media Cover the Franken vs. Coleman Recount?

As the headline of Barack Obama’s historic victory begins to fade and political reporters and analysts need to turn their attention elsewhere, it is likely the recount in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race will satisfy their cravings and subsequently garner even more national attention. To date, due to its understandably Obama-centric...

Green Party Sets Personal Best in Minnesota's HD 61B Contest

In Minnesota’s House District 61B election on Tuesday, Green Party candidate Farheen Hakeem received 30.3 percent of the vote – the highest mark ever reached by the Green Party in a House contest. The Green Party has run 29 candidates for the House of Representatives in special and general...

Third Party Impact on the 2008 Minnesota Legislative Vote

Third party candidates in the Gopher State made a slight comeback in 2008, and had some impact on Minnesota legislative races on Tuesday. Two races were decidedly impacted by third party candidacies. In the open DFL House District 51A, Republican Tim Sanders defeated DFL candidate Shawn Hamilton by a 47.8...

Independence Party Sets New Records in Election 2008

Although the number of candidates the Independence Party of Minnesota has been able to field in state legislative elections has fallen sharply during the past few election cycles, the Party enjoyed some personal bests in the 2008 elections. At the top of the ticket, in the U.S. Senate race, the...

House DFLers Head Into 2010 With Favorable Electoral Map

Despite failing to net five seats and reach a 90-seat supermajority in the House of Representatives, the DFL is actually now in a much stronger position heading into 2010 than they were heading into Tuesday’s election. Perhaps more important than netting two additional seats, the DFL deepened their support in...

Wisconsin Votes Democratic By Larger Margin Than Minnesota for First Time in 72 Years

Barack Obama’s sweep through most of the Midwest on Tuesday night was perhaps most notable for his victory in Indiana. But there were other historical oddities with Obama’s victory that occurred in the region, one of which was that, for the first time since 1936, a Democratic presidential nominee had...

DFL Fails to Win Supermajority in Minnesota House

As projected at Smart Politics , the Republican Party successfully prevented the DFL from reaching a supermajority of 90 seats in the Minnesota House of Representatives. Smart Politics projected a net gain of 3 seats for a total of 88 for the DFL; unofficial returns from the Secretary of State’s...

Election Night Observations

9:20 p.m. There have not been any shockers on Election Night so far, but there have been a few surprises on the presidential race: 1. Ohio being called so quickly for Barack Obama (about 90 minutes after polls closed) and North Dakota being called so quickly for John McCain (the...

Upper Midwestern Election Results Links

To track updated state and federal election results for the Upper Midwest, visit these links: Iowa: Secretary of State Minnesota: Secretary of State South Dakota: Secretary of State Wisconsin: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel...

Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House (2008)

Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The thirteenth projections in the series are State House races in the State of Minnesota. Minnesota: State House. Balance of power: DFL (85 to 49)...

Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in Minnesota

Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The tenth projections in the series are federal races in the State of Minnesota. Minnesota: President. Barack Obama has trailed John McCain only once in 40 non-partisan...

Humphrey Institute / MPR Poll: Franken and Coleman in Tight Race

The final Humphrey Institute / Minnesota Public Radio poll of Minnesota's U.S. Senate race gives DFL nominee Al Franken a narrow 41 to 37 percent lead over Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley received 17 percent. From the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and...

DFL Tries to Make History in U.S. House Races

As pundits weigh in on their pre-Election Day predictions, a great deal of attention has turned to the Gopher State – not only for its high profile Senate race, but also due to its two competitive U.S. House races in the 3rd and 6th Districts. The DFL plan to sweep...

Humphrey Institute / MPR Poll: Obama Surging in Minnesota

The latest Humphrey Institute / Minnesota Public Radio poll conducted October 24-28 of 451 likely voters in the Gopher State finds Barack Obama with a commanding 19-point lead, 56 to 37 percent over John McCain. The 19-point advantage matches the largest lead for Obama ever measured by a non-partisan pollster...

Franken Losing His Grip on Obama's Coattails

A new Senate poll by Rasmussen released on Wednesday gave a boost of confidence to Norm Coleman’s re-election campaign, with the Senior Senator from Minnesota leading Al Franken by a 43 to 39 percent margin. Dean Barkley received the support of 14 percent of the 500 likely voters surveyed on...

Third CD Race in Minnesota Stil Deadlocked

One of the most high profile and competitive U.S. House races in the country appears to be going down to the wire – according to a new SurveyUSA poll of 643 likely voters in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District. The new poll, conducted October 26-27, finds Republican Erik Paulsen with a...



Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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