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Wisconsin


Does Anyone Care About Minnesota? (Polling the 2012 Presidential Race)

The Gopher State has been polled in the presidential race at one-sixth the rate in 2012 compared to this stage of the 2008 cycle.

Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago

The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets.

Schizophrenic Electorates or Short Obama Coattails? D/R Split Ticket Voting in 2012

Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin are five of 18 states never to split their ticket by voting for a Democratic presidential nominee and a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the same cycle.

Changing Tides? GOP Eyes Rare Majority Control of Upper Midwest Senate Delegation

After November, Democrats in the five-state Upper Midwest region could control less than half of the 10 U.S. Senate seats for only the 4th time in 50 Years.

Will Paul Ryan Carry Wisconsin for the Romney Ticket?

The last eight vice-presidential nominees from the Midwest have carried their home state dating back to 1944 .

Ryan Seeks to Become 1st GOPer to Simultaneously Win VP and Congressional Seat

Only three previous individuals - all Democrats - have won the vice-presidency and were reelected to their seat on Capitol Hill on Election Day.

Thompson Wins Most Competitive Wisconsin GOP US Senate Primary Since 1957

The former governor's 3.1-point win over Eric Hovde is the sixth closest in party history out of 37 contests.

Broadcast Media in Love with Republican Governors in 2012

GOP governors land the Top 10 spots for the most broadcast reports mentioning their names since January, led by Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, and Rick Scott.

Safety First

Although freshman Republican U.S. Representatives Sean Duffy (WI-07) and Reid Ribble (WI-08) are considered vulnerable by many D.C. prognosticators this November, redistricting has not spelled trouble for congressional incumbents in the Badger State over the last six decades. Since 1952, only one of 52 incumbents went down in the general...

Splitting the Electorate

With new polls released this week showing uncertainty at the top of the leader board in the Wisconsin GOP U.S. Senate race, the four-candidate field of Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Jeff Fitzgerald is likely to produce not only a plurality winner next month, but possibly all four...

Eric Hovde: Is Another Political Outsider Headed to the US Senate from Wisconsin?

Hovde, surging in the GOP primary polls, would be just the third political novice elected to the U.S. Senate from the Badger State.

History Gives Baldwin, Neumann Long Odds in Wisconsin US Senate Bids

Only two of 15 ex- or sitting Badger State U.S. Representatives have run successful U.S. Senate campaigns; two more may go down in 2012.

Barrett Support Rises in 19 Counties, Falls in 53 Others

An increase in support in Dane and Milwaukee Counties is not enough for Mayor Barrett to stave off Governor Walker's surge in central and northern Wisconsin.

Scott Walker's Victory by the Numbers

Gubernatorial candidates seeking a rematch have now lost 5 of 7 contests in Wisconsin history.

How Big will Barrett Score in Dane and Milwaukee Counties?

Holding 2010 totals constant for the state's other 70 counties, Barrett would need to carry 75.1 percent of the vote in Wisconsin's two most populated counties to beat Walker on Tuesday (up from 64.1 percent in 2010).

Wisconsin Poised to Extend Competitive Gubernatorial Election Streak

Wisconsin is expected to join Rhode Island, Iowa, and Minnesota on Tuesday for the only states currently with four or more consecutive elections decided by single digits.

Could An Independent Swing Wisconsin's Gubernatorial Recall Election?

Only two independent candidates have ever won more than 1 percent of the vote across 73 Wisconsin gubernatorial elections since 1848; both of these candidates were former Republican officeholders.

Look to Senate Race, Not Walker Recall for Romney vs Obama Tilt in Wisconsin

The Badger State has voted for the same party in presidential and U.S. Senate races in 14 of 16 cycles over the last century.

GOP Seeks First Grip on Both US Senate Seats in Decades in Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin

The last time Florida Republicans held both Senate seats was 1875; WI (1957), ND (1960), and NE (1976) could also see an end to a decades-long Democratic presence in its state delegations.

Walker's Odds: How Often Do Wisconsin Gubernatorial Incumbents Win Reelection?

Governors in the Badger State have kept their job in 34 of 46 contests since statehood, or 74 percent of the time.

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Political Crumbs

No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


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