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Wisconsin


History Says Wisconsin's Freshmen GOP U.S. House Members Will be Safe in 2012

It has been 100 years since the last Wisconsin House freshman lost in a redistricting cycle

Herb Kohl FEC Filings Do Not Tip Hand as to 2012 Election Plans

Kohl's end of the year cash on hand amounts have been pretty low throughout the decade

Scott Walker Dominates 2011 Media Coverage of Gubernatorial Politics

Wisconsin governor has been mentioned in 26 percent of cable TV gubernatorial news stories in 2011 - more than 42 other governors combined

Could Walker Have Used Redistricting as a Stick to Keep Wisconsin Senate Democrats in Madison?

Would Senate Democrats have left the state in the first instance if they knew Wisconsin's new legislative and congressional district maps could be created and voted on without any of their input?

Presidential Battleground States by the Numbers Since 1968

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lead the way with nine races decided by single-digits over the last 11 presidential election cycles; Missouri and Oregon are next with eight

Is Democratic Hold on Wisconsin's 2012 U.S. Senate Seat Tied to an Obama Victory?

Badger State has voted for same party of U.S. Senate and Presidential nominees in 14 of 16 election cycles over the last century

Could Republicans Sweep the Midwest in US Senate Races Again in 2012?

GOP won nine Senate seats in the region last November for the first time since 1920

Could Russ Feingold Win Herb Kohl's U.S. Senate Seat in 2012?

Nineteen U.S. Senators have served both U.S. Senate seats from their state over the past 100 years including ten who (like Feingold) were previously voted out of office

U.S.-Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Differential at Largest Mark in 17 Years

Not since 1993 has Wisconsin's jobless rate been 2.2 points lower than that of the nation overall

Upper Midwestern Republicans Reach Five-Decade High in State House Seats

After the 2010 election, GOP holds 311 of 497 lower chamber seats in IA, MN, ND, SD, and WI (62.2 percent) - the highest level since 1968 election (68.0 percent)

Republican Dominance over Upper Midwestern Governorships through the Years

Republicans have controlled the governor's mansions of IA, MN, ND, SD, and WI for over 72 percent of the time since 1846

Wisconsin Closes 3rd Least Competitive Congressional Redistricting Period in State History

Average margin of victory in Wisconsin's U.S. House races since 2002 is 37.4 points - eclipsed by only two other redistricting periods

Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin U.S. House

Republicans eye first two-seat U.S. House pick up in Badger State since 1966 GOP wave

Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Assembly

Republicans look to take back control of Assembly during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate

Republicans to take back control of Senate during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District

From 1978 to 2004, only 3 of the 14 elections in the 8th District were decided by less than 10 points; during the last two election cycles, the district has been one of the most competitive in the nation

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District

The retirement of 21-term incumbent (and Appropriations Chair) David Obey has opened up one of the GOP's prized districts in 2010

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District

Wisconsin's 6th CD only has a +4 GOP Partisan Voting Index tilt, making it just the 190th most Republican district in the nation

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District

Democrats have failed to field a candidate against Sensenbrenner six times during his 16 victorious congressional campaigns

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District

Wisconsin's 4th CD has voted for the Democratic Party in every U.S. House election since 1948, with an average margin of victory of approximately 50 points since 1960

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Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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