Iowa
By Eric Ostermeier on January 1, 2008
Is the 'Clinton machine' at last paying dividends in Iowa? The answer to that question is still unknown according to three new polls of Iowans released today. Clinton's strongest support in Iowa to date has come from the Democratic base, with independents breaking to Barack Obama and John Edwards. Democrats...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 31, 2007
With at least one poll of Iowans being released every day, the results tell us that while no candidate is the definitive frontrunner, certain patterns have emerged. With different candidates leading in different polls, both the Democratic and GOP races are classic 'toss-ups.' In polls released during the past week,...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 29, 2007
With just five days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, Republican Mitt Romney is now back on top, according to a brand new poll released today by American Research Group (ARG). The ARG survey of 600 likely GOP caucus voters, conducted December 26-28, measures Romney's support at 32 percent, giving the...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 28, 2007
A new Bloomberg / LA Times poll of likely caucus voters in Iowa demonstrates quite clearly how the view of the country is affected by one's political lens. While the outlook on the GOP side is not exceedingly optimistic, it seems so when paired against the glum worldview held by...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 27, 2007
The assassination today of ex-Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi provides a newfound emphasis (temporarily, at least) on the importance of foreign policy and the war on terrorism for the next U.S. president. The United States' fragile relationship with a nation at the center of terrorism and radical Islam...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 26, 2007
As further proof of how things can change in Iowa at the drop of a hat, the latest polling by American Research Group (ARG) finds the former 3-way Democratic race now showing a 14-point Hillary Clinton advantage, and the former duel between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney now a 3-way...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 19, 2007
As tracked here at Smart Politics over the past few months, John McCain continues to prove to be the strongest Republican candidate to defeat the Democrats in 2008. McCain consistently, and by wide margins, polls better than his chief GOP rivals in almost all key battleground states—those states that Republicans...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 18, 2007
With Barack Obama tied or in the lead outright in three of the last four public polls in Iowa, the political beat is buzzing how Hillary Clinton, who had led in every Hawkeye State poll from late August to late November, has lost her momentum to the junior Senator from...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 17, 2007
Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack—in his first term representing Iowa's 2nd District—endorsed Senator Barack Obama for president today, to make an even 1-1-1 split among the top Democratic rivals - reflective of the close 3-way race heading into the last few weeks before the January 3rd caucuses. Last Friday, Hillary Clinton...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 15, 2007
With less than three weeks until the Iowa Caucuses, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee continue to build on their rising support over the past few weeks, according to two statewide polls conducted this week. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Hillary Clinton and John Edwards by nine points each in...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 10, 2007
The story in Iowa during the past week to ten days was how Mike Huckabee had surpassed Mitt Romney in some Republican caucus polls in Iowa. The story this week is that this lead has now extended to double digits. A new McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon stakes Huckabee to...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 7, 2007
It has been speculated by some political strategists (e.g. Dick Morris) that Mitt Romney's recent speech on religion and faith at Texas A&M University was delivered not so much to quell the 'issue' of his Mormonism, but rather to reassure cultural conservatives that he is, in fact, a reliable conservative....
By Eric Ostermeier on December 5, 2007
The latest Rasmussen survey of 600 likely Republican voters finds Mike Huckabee with his first outright lead in a national poll. Huckabee registered 20 percent support followed by Rudy Giuliani at 17 percent, Mitt Romney and John McCain at 13 percent, Fred Thompson at 10 percent, and Ron Paul at...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 4, 2007
Political junkies and historians must have been throwing their remotes at the television last night when FOX News' Bill O'Reilly stumbled through an error-ridden Campaign '08 segment on The O'Reilly Factor. O'Reilly tried his best to argue three points: 1) Mike Huckabee has no chance to win the Republican...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 3, 2007
An Associated Press / Pew Research Center poll of likely voters in three early primary states finds Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by substantial margins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, but by just 5 points in Iowa. John Edwards registered in double digits in each state, but trailed Clinton...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 2, 2007
The latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll finds Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama atop the fields of their respective parties, continuing the momentum for each candidate chronicled in other public polls released during the past week. The poll, conducted November 25-28 of 500 likely Democratic and 500 likely Republican caucus...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 29, 2007
While the most open GOP race in several presidential election cycles dominates the political news coverage, the state of Iowa continues to be a stumbling block for Hillary Clinton's coronation as the Democratic nominee. Clinton has dominated in the national polls throughout the year as well as in most state...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 28, 2007
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has taken his first lead in a public poll of GOP Iowa caucus voters, according to a survey of 839 likely caucus participants conducted November 26-27 by Rasmussen. While still within the margin of error, Mitt Romney now trails Huckbaee 28 to 25 percent. A...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 27, 2007
Iowa's influence on presidential politics is in the spotlight right now, with its caucuses now just 37 days away, on January 3, 2008. The winner of each party's caucus is by no means guaranteed to go on and win the nomination, but a surprise showing can go a long way...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 21, 2007
A new ABC News / Washington Post poll finds terrorism and illegal immigration topping the list of most important issues determining vote choice among likely Iowa Republican caucus voters. Fourteen percent cited terrorism and national security issues as the most important factor, while thirteen percent cited illegal immigration in the...
