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Iowa


Will Bush Drive Independents Away from McCain in Upper Midwest?

Last week John McCain, in a somewhat awkward festivity, accepted President George W. Bush's endorsement for the presidency after wrapping up the majority of delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination. McCain, setting aside his staunch support for the still generally unpopular War in Iraq, is the type of Republican...

Is Pennsylvania the Next Iowa? Not Quite.

After the Wyoming caucuses on Saturday and the Mississippi primary on Tuesday (and perhaps even before those contests are finished), all attention will shift to the state of Pennyslvania in the next (though not necessarily last) showdown between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The lengthy 6+ week run up to...

Clinton Trails, Obama Sails Against McCain in IA, MN

Echoing similar results reported yesterday in Wisconsin, Barack Obama currently has a strong advantage when matched up against John McCain in the Upper Midwestern states of Iowa and Minnesota, especially when compared to Hillary Clinton, according to polls released today by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA. In Minnesota, a Rasmussen poll of...

Obama Is Iowa's Candidate; Huckabee the Bridesmaid

In the first poll of Iowans since its caucuses last Thursday, Democrat Barack Obama would trounce Republican Mike Huckabee if the presidential election were held today. The SurveyUSA poll of 543 registered voters, conducted January 4-6, found Obama would defeat Huckabee by 23 points (58 to 35 percent) in a...

Final Iowa Democratic Caucus Results

All 1,781 precincts have now reported their Democratic caucus results: 1. Senator Barack Obama (940 votes) : 37.58% 2. Senator John Edwards (744 votes) : 29.75% 3. Senator Hillary Clinton (737 votes) : 29.47% 4. Governor Bill Richardson (53 votes) : 2.11% 5. Senator Joe Biden (23 votes) : 0.93%...

Live Blogging: The Iowa Caucuses

Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Iowa Caucus results tonight. These are raw vote numbers provided by reported precincts, not a scientific random sample: 7:41 p.m. (17% of precincts reporting) Democrats: Edwards 34.0%, Clinton 31.9%, Obama 31.3% 7:45 p.m. (21% of precincts reporting) Democrats: Edwards 33.4%,...

Final Iowa Polls Released Today

Two final polls of Iowans were released today—with mixed results on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee the consensus leader for the GOP. For the Democrats, Zogby's tracking poll conducted December 30 through January 2 finds Barack Obama leading with 31 percent, John Edwards in second at 27 percent, and...

Why John Edwards Can Win The Iowa Caucus

Despite leading in just 1 of the last 41 public polls conducted of likely Democratic caucus attendees in Iowa since late August 2007, there is reason for John Edwards to be optimistic about his chances of winning the caucuses Thursday night. First, Edwards' deficit in most of the recent polls...

Clinton On Top In 2 of 3 Iowa Polls Released Today

Is the 'Clinton machine' at last paying dividends in Iowa? The answer to that question is still unknown according to three new polls of Iowans released today. Clinton's strongest support in Iowa to date has come from the Democratic base, with independents breaking to Barack Obama and John Edwards. Democrats...

The Polls Tell Us…It's A Toss-Up in Iowa

With at least one poll of Iowans being released every day, the results tell us that while no candidate is the definitive frontrunner, certain patterns have emerged. With different candidates leading in different polls, both the Democratic and GOP races are classic 'toss-ups.' In polls released during the past week,...

Five Days Out: Romney Back On Top in New Iowa Poll

With just five days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, Republican Mitt Romney is now back on top, according to a brand new poll released today by American Research Group (ARG). The ARG survey of 600 likely GOP caucus voters, conducted December 26-28, measures Romney's support at 32 percent, giving the...

The Partisan Divide in Iowa

A new Bloomberg / LA Times poll of likely caucus voters in Iowa demonstrates quite clearly how the view of the country is affected by one's political lens. While the outlook on the GOP side is not exceedingly optimistic, it seems so when paired against the glum worldview held by...

The Bhutto Assassination, Foreign Policy and the '08 Campaign

The assassination today of ex-Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi provides a newfound emphasis (temporarily, at least) on the importance of foreign policy and the war on terrorism for the next U.S. president. The United States' fragile relationship with a nation at the center of terrorism and radical Islam...

ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton Up 14; 3-Way GOP Race

As further proof of how things can change in Iowa at the drop of a hat, the latest polling by American Research Group (ARG) finds the former 3-way Democratic race now showing a 14-point Hillary Clinton advantage, and the former duel between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney now a 3-way...

McCain Still Top GOP Dog In Battleground States

As tracked here at Smart Politics over the past few months, John McCain continues to prove to be the strongest Republican candidate to defeat the Democrats in 2008. McCain consistently, and by wide margins, polls better than his chief GOP rivals in almost all key battleground states—those states that Republicans...

Iowa Democratic Caucus Time Capsule: 2004

With Barack Obama tied or in the lead outright in three of the last four public polls in Iowa, the political beat is buzzing how Hillary Clinton, who had led in every Hawkeye State poll from late August to late November, has lost her momentum to the junior Senator from...

Iowa Congressional Delegation Split in Its Endorsements

Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack—in his first term representing Iowa's 2nd District—endorsed Senator Barack Obama for president today, to make an even 1-1-1 split among the top Democratic rivals - reflective of the close 3-way race heading into the last few weeks before the January 3rd caucuses. Last Friday, Hillary Clinton...

Obama, Huckabee On Top In Two New Iowa Polls

With less than three weeks until the Iowa Caucuses, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee continue to build on their rising support over the past few weeks, according to two statewide polls conducted this week. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Hillary Clinton and John Edwards by nine points each in...

McClatchy/MSNBC Poll: Huckabee Up Double Digits In Iowa

The story in Iowa during the past week to ten days was how Mike Huckabee had surpassed Mitt Romney in some Republican caucus polls in Iowa. The story this week is that this lead has now extended to double digits. A new McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon stakes Huckabee to...

Romney, The Speech, and Social Conservatism

It has been speculated by some political strategists (e.g. Dick Morris) that Mitt Romney's recent speech on religion and faith at Texas A&M University was delivered not so much to quell the 'issue' of his Mormonism, but rather to reassure cultural conservatives that he is, in fact, a reliable conservative....



Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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