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National Politics


Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state has voted for the winner 36 times.

Casey Anthony Mentioned in More Broadcast News Reports than Any GOP Presidential Candidate Since Day 1 of Trial

Anthony is mentioned in nearly 900 programs since May 24th opening statements across six major broadcast outlets; Romney (764) and Bachmann (609) lead the GOP field.

McCotter Tries to Buck Michigan's Dismal History of Presidential Campaigns

The Wolverine State has produced more than a dozen presidential candidacies; two resulted in party nominations, but none have been elected to the White House.

Do Governors Make the "Most Successful Presidents?"

The top rated presidents in U.S. history are split 50/50 between those who had gubernatorial experience and those that did not.

U.S. Senate Eyes First Session During 4th of July Holiday Since Watergate

The last time Congress did not take a July 4th recess was in 1974 in the midst of President Richard Nixon's last days in office at the climax of the Watergate scandal.

Who Could Play the 'Turner' in Michele's Bachman(n) Turner Overdrive?

If nominated, which Turner would be Michele Bachmann's best pick as a VP running mate to see a worn-out journalistic pun come full circle?

Bachmann Tries to Defy History's Long Trail of Failed U.S. Representative Presidential Bids

More than 30 presidential campaigns have been launched by sitting U.S. House members over the last 100 years; all have failed and more than 3/4 ultimately ran for reelection to their House seat

Romney Remains Lone Blue State GOP Presidential Candidate

Nine of the 10 announced GOP candidates hail from red or purple states.

Did Obama Mislead Americans on Trends in U.S. Troop Fatalities?

U.S. troop fatalities in Iraq are on pace for a 16 percent increase from 2010; American deaths in Afghanistan over the last three months are up 7 percent from the same period in 2010.

The Myth of the Convention State Boost, Part II: The Republicans

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Michele Bachmann Debuts on Jeopardy!

The Minnesota Congresswoman was nearly the most valuable answer (that is, question) to an $800 clue in an "All Politics Is Local" category last week on the popular game show.

Bachmann 153rd Candidate to File 2012 Presidential Paperwork and 1 of 4 This Week

FEC documents show 156 individuals from more than 35 states have filed to run for the presidency in 2012; more than 1/3 have run for president before.

Obama Under Fire: Who Launched the Most Attacks at the President during the New Hampshire Debate?

Mitt Romney landed the most jabs at Obama among the seven candidates; Herman Cain and Ron Paul, meanwhile, pulled the most punches.

Face Time: Which Republican Candidate Won the Battle for the Camera Lens?

Romney spoke for 11 minutes and 21 seconds with five other candidates clocking in at less than 9 minutes and 40 seconds; Pawlenty came in second with 10:51.

Remember When? Bachmann Once Led the Cheers for Ron Paul 2012 Candidacy

Less than two years ago, Bachmann was Paul's opening act and applauded his prospective 2012 candidacy; on Monday the two U.S. Representatives share the New Hampshire stage as equals.

Obama the Most Veto-Shy President Since James Garfield

Obama has issued just one veto every 435 days; the presidential average since 1881 is once every 20 days.

Rick Santorum, Catholicism, and the 2012 Republican Ticket

Republicans have nominated a Catholic just once on the presidential ballot in 152 years, compared to seven times for the Democrats since 1928.

Bachmann vs. Pawlenty: How do Same-State Same Party Presidential Rivals Fare?

More than two-dozen pairs of candidates from the same state have sought the same major party nomination in the post-Civil War era; 15 have won the nomination and nine the presidency.

Gillibrand Scores Biggest Fundraising Surge Among 2012 U.S. Senate Incumbents

New York junior Senator jumps from #17 to #5 for cash on hand among 2012 U.S. Senate incumbents last quarter.

Reading the Tweet Leaves: Sarah Palin's Vanishing Act

Palin tweeting 64 percent less frequently in 2011 compared to 2010



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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