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National Politics


Meet the New Bellwether States: Ohio and Nevada

By Eric Ostermeier on February 17, 2011
Ohio has the longest current streak in the nation with 12 consecutive elections voting for the winning presidential candidate; Nevada has the highest rate over the last 100 years at 96 percent (24 of 25 cycles)

Presidential Battleground States by the Numbers Since 1968

By Eric Ostermeier on February 14, 2011
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lead the way with nine races decided by single-digits over the last 11 presidential election cycles; Missouri and Oregon are next with eight

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Selection Bias? PolitiFact Rates Republican Statements as False at 3 Times the Rate of Democrats

By Eric Ostermeier on February 10, 2011
PolitiFact assigns "Pants on Fire" or "False" ratings to 39 percent of Republican statements compared to just 12 percent of Democrats since January 2010

How High Is Too High? Unemployment and the 2012 Presidential Race

By Eric Ostermeier on February 8, 2011
Ronald Reagan got reelected in a landslide in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, while George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992 with a nearly identical 7.4 percent rate

Experienced 'Outsiders': Do Ex-Elected Officials Make the Strongest Presidential Challengers?

By Eric Ostermeier on February 2, 2011
Incumbent presidents have won only 50 percent of elections against former elected officeholders over the last 220 years, compared to 76 percent against sitting elected officials and those never elected to political office

Obama's SOTU: Uniting the Country...through Pronouns?

By Eric Ostermeier on January 31, 2011
Obama's 2011 State of the Union incorporated the 2nd largest percentage of first-person plural pronouns since FDR

Keeping It Simple: Obama Records 2nd Lowest Flesch-Kincaid SOTU Grade Level Score Since FDR

By Eric Ostermeier on January 27, 2011
President's 2011 SOTU speech was written at more than a half a grade level lower than 2010's score, which was the 4th lowest in 75+ years

Obama's Episodic Stories in SOTU All Rooted in 2012 Battleground States

By Eric Ostermeier on January 26, 2011
Each of the personal anecdotes relayed by Obama in his 2011 Address featured individuals living in battleground states won by the President in 2008

A Content Analysis of Barack Obama's 2011 State of the Union Address

By Eric Ostermeier on January 26, 2011
Obama's statements on education and technology rose compared to his 2010 Address, while statements on the economy and health care declined

George Allen Attempts Historical Rarity in 2012 U.S. Senate Bid

By Eric Ostermeier on January 25, 2011
Only 11 U.S. Senators have been elected to two interrupted full terms over the last 100 years, and just 5 did so after losing a reelection bid in between

Which States Produce the Most U.S. Senators?

By Eric Ostermeier on January 24, 2011
Over the last 100 years Ohio, New York, and Missouri have given birth to the most Senators, while Ohio, Vermont and Mississippi boast the largest percentage of home-born Senators

More Likely 2012 US Senate Scenario: Connecticut to the GOP or North Dakota to the Dems?

By Eric Ostermeier on January 20, 2011
Connecticut has never voted for a Republican U.S. Senator and a Democratic presidential nominee in the same cycle

African Americans Notch Record Number of U.S. House Seats in 2010 Election

By Eric Ostermeier on January 18, 2011
However, decade-by-decade rate of growth of number of blacks in the U.S. House has stalled to its lowest level since the 1920s

African Americans Still Dreaming of Equal Representation in Congress

By Eric Ostermeier on January 17, 2011
Black Americans have been elected to the U.S. House in less than half the states throughout history and to the U.S. Senate in just three

Michael Steele Era on Par with Historical Tenure of RNC Chairmen

By Eric Ostermeier on January 14, 2011
Over 75 percent of RNC Chairmen throughout history have served less than two full terms; 61 percent have served two years or less

Numerology Alert: Will 1/11/11 Be a Notable Day in U.S. History?

By Eric Ostermeier on January 11, 2011
Over the last century, U.S. history has only provided a few examples of notable events taking place on eyebrow-raising dates on the calendar.

Republican Female U.S. Representatives Lead Commentary on Giffords Shooting

By Eric Ostermeier on January 10, 2011
Nearly 40 percent of female GOP U.S. House members issued early press releases on House websites after the shooting in Arizona, compared to 25 percent of female Democrats, male Republicans, and male Democrats

Bachmann's Potential Presidential Pathway Not Well-Trodden

By Eric Ostermeier on January 6, 2011
Only one sitting member of the U.S. House has been elected president in history (Garfield); only three presidents have been elected with U.S. Representative as the highest elected office attained on their resume

What's in a Name? From Abraham to Zell, 100 Years of U.S. Senators

By Eric Ostermeier on January 5, 2011
John, William, and James are the most common of the 313 different first names used by the more than 875 Senators elected or appointed during the last 100 years; trending: Mark and Mike

Which U.S. Senate Seats Have Had the Most Partisan Turnover?

By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2011
Six seats up for election in 2012 rank in the top 10 for the most frequent change in party control since the introduction of popular vote elections, including Sherrod Brown's (OH), Claire McCaskill's (MO), and Joe Lieberman's (CT)

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Political Crumbs

Curse of the '4'?

May 22, 2013

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

May 2, 2013

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.


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