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National Politics


Media Myth Exposed: Loss of Democratic Governorships Not Key to Obama's 2012 Battleground State Prospects

Since 1968, Democratic presidential candidates have had the same success rate in carrying states with Democratic governors as Republican governors - 33 percent

Are Democrats Becoming a Two-State Party?

Percentage of Democratic U.S. House Seats from California and New York soars to a record high of 28.1 percent after the 2010 elections

Heath Shuler Would Be Greenest (and Youngest) Floor Leader in U.S. House History

If elected, Shuler would become the first majority or minority leader with less than five terms of service in the U.S. House and the first elected below the age of 45

'No' Vote on Health Care May Have Saved Several Democratic House Seats in McCain Districts

House Democrats from McCain districts voting 'no' on health care were reelected at nearly four times the rate as those voting 'yes'

Nancy Pelosi 1 of 8 House Democrats to Win by Bigger Margin in 2010 than 2008

Only 3 percent of 230 Democratic U.S. House incumbents on the ballot increased their margin of victory in 2010 compared to 2008; Nancy Pelosi had the second largest increase

Smart Politics Projections: U.S. House of Representatives

Projected partisan shift: GOP +62

Third Party U.S. House Candidates Spike to Largest Midterm Election Mark Since 1934

With an average of more than one candidate per district, it has been over 75 years since this many independent and third party U.S. House candidates appeared on midterm general election ballots

Female Candidates to Shatter Records Across the Country on Election Day

More than a dozen women will set state records on Tuesday for female gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidacies

Harry Reid Could Become Just Fifth Senate Party Floor Leader to Lose at the Ballot Box

Death more common than defeat in ending the reign of Senate's majority and minority leaders; over 86 percent have won reelection since 1920

Republicans Positioned to Win Nine Midwestern U.S. Senate Seats for First Time Since 1920

GOP on track to sweep all nine Class III Midwest Senate seats in the 12-state region for the first time in 90 years

Tea Party, The Movie: Panned by Critics, Loved by Audiences

Elite-public gap in evaluation of Tea Party movement as seen through the lens of Hollywood

At the Institute: Washington Update with former Congressman Vin Weber

Former six-term congressman to discuss the current political climate in Washington, the nation's pressing domestic and foreign challenges, and the upcoming midterm elections

Which States Host the Most Competitive Gubernatorial Elections?

New Mexico, Alaska, and Indiana have provided the tightest gubernatorial races in the nation since 1900; over the last three decades: Mississippi, Illinois, and Virginia

Increased Partisan Opposition in Kagan Confirmation Vote Continues Historical Trend

Six of the last seven presidents have faced increased opposition to get their second SCOTUS justice seated; Kagan receives third most 'nay' votes among successful nominees in history

You Say You Want a Revolution? Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates Thriving in 2010

Third party gubernatorial candidates rivaling 1994 for their best showing since the Great Depression

Southern U.S. Representatives Leading the Campaign Against Illegal Immigration

Nearly half of Southern U.S. House incumbents address illegal immigration on campaign websites, compared to 30 percent from the West, 23 percent in the Midwest, and 14 percent out East

GOP U.S. House Incumbents Six Times More Likely to Run Get-Tough on Illegal Immigration Campaigns than Democrats

Half of Republican incumbents are highlighting get-tough anti-illegal immigration policy solutions on campaign websites compared to just 8 percent of Democrats

Republican Party Poised to Win Most Gubernatorial Seats in 90 Years

Republicans on pace to eclipse the 24 seats won in 1928, 1966, and the Republican Revolution of 1994

The Great Divide: Birth States of U.S. Supreme Court Justices

Only 11 of 111 justices have been born in the 24 states west of the Mississippi River; just 25 percent over the last 50 years

Should Kagan's Partisan Past and Policy Work Derail Her Confirmation?

Over half of Supreme Court Justices throughout history have served in or sought partisan legislative or executive offices



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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