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National Politics


Has Gerrymandering Lost Its Punch?

Current redistricting period has produced the closest relationship between votes received and seats won by party across the nation's 435 U.S. House districts since the 1940s

Still thinking about running for the U.S. Senate? You're Too Late

No non-incumbent has won a U.S. Senate seat by announcing their candidacy this late in the election cycle; the average length of successful U.S. Senate campaigns since 2000 has been 447 days

Is the Democratic Party 'Overrepresented' in the U.S. House?

Democratic candidates have won 772 more U.S. House seats since 1942 than their cumulative 'proportional vote share,' or 23 seats per election cycle; +27 seats in 2008

How Do Members of Congress Use the American Flag in Their Reelection Campaigns?

Republican U.S. Representatives are 36 percent more likely to incorporate the American flag on campaign websites than Democrats

Which States Have the Most Proportional Female Representation in Congress?

Women are still proportionally underrepresented in 48 states, with 19 states and 22 percent of the nation's population without a female U.S. Senator or Representative

Barack Obama Sightings in D.C.: The Where and the When

Obama delivers most remarks while in D.C. from the White House's East Room; the plurality of the President's statements begin at the 11 o'clock hour

The Vanishing President? Obama Public Appearances Down 30 Percent in 2010

Study of more than 600 verbal statements finds the President's appearances have dropped from 45 per month in 2009 to 32 in 2010

Is Bart Stupak's U.S. House Seat Vulnerable?

Nine-term Democrat has won by more than 32 points in each of the last four election cycles

Fun Facts about House Democrats Voting 'No' on the Health Care Bill

Years of service in U.S. House, district competitiveness, and district vote for McCain in '08 shaped Democratic votes; percentage of uninsured constituents in district had no impact

The 50 Safest U.S. House Districts in the Nation (2002-2008)

Democrats currently hold 43 of the 50 least competitive seats in the nation; John Lewis (GA-05), Kendrick Meek (FL-17), and Richard Neal (MA-02) have not faced a challenger since new district lines were drawn in 2002

The Top 50 Most Competitive U.S. House Districts in the Nation (2002-2008)

Jim Gerlach's PA-06 seat is the only U.S. House district in the nation decided by less than 10 points in each of the last four election cycles; Democrats currently hold 35 of the Top 50 most competitive seats

Which States Have the Most Competitive U.S. House Elections?

Wyoming, New Hampshire and Iowa lead the nation for the most competitive U.S. House races since 2002; Massachusetts, Alabama, Arkansas, and New York the least competitive

2009 Voting Record of Female Republicans in U.S. House Most Conservative in History

Analysis finds National Journal vote rankings of female GOP Representatives set record highs for conservatism in 2009

Democrats Hold Edge Over GOP for Average Years of Service in U.S. House

Despite 30 percent of its caucus elected since 2006, Democrats have served almost 1 more year per member on average than Republicans

Presidents Day Special: The Astrological Signs of the Presidents

Elected presidents most frequently born under the sign of Aquarius (1 in 5); Sarah Palin only leading contender of 2012 GOP rumored candidates to be born under this sign

Red States Hold Primaries More than Five Weeks Earlier on Average than Blue States: Which Party Benefits?

Average 'red state' primary date is June 15th, while average 'blue state' date is July 23rd. 'Purple state' average date is July 11th

Is Barack Obama Avoiding the Press?

Obama press conferences front-loaded during 'honeymoon period' of 1st term; President has held fourth fewest solo press conferences during 1st year of office since Herbert Hoover

'Professor' Obama? President's State of the Union Address Notches 4th Lowest Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level Score Since FDR

Text of Obama's Address has a readability score for an average 8th grader - two grades lower than George W. Bush's Addresses and the historical average for modern presidents

A Content Analysis of President Obama's 2010 State of the Union Address

Emphasis on domestic policy and insertion of non-policy rhetoric stands in sharp contrast to George W. Bush's final State of the Union Address in 2008

All About the 39 Democrats Voting 'No' to the Affordable Health Care for America Act

Majority of Blue Dogs, Democratic Representatives in '08 pick-up districts, and Democrats in competitive districts all vote in favor of bill



Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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