National Politics
By Eric Ostermeier on March 27, 2008
On multiple occasions during his weeknight telecast The O'Reilly Factor, host Bill O'Reilly has made a particular effort to tell the viewers, and his right-wing guests, that he is not endorsing a presidential candidate and has no horse in the race. O'Reilly has maintained for years that he is only...
By Eric Ostermeier on March 23, 2008
Picking the Vice Presidential Nominees: What Should We Look For? Monday, March 24, 2008. 8:30am - Noon; Hubert H. Humphrey Center "The Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota and Presidential Studies Quarterly are convening a national conference on Monday, March 24th...
By Eric Ostermeier on March 20, 2008
As news broke last week in the mainstream media of videotaped statements by Barack Obama's friend and Reverend spouting what most Americans view as radical, racially-fused, anti-American political rhetoric, Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton in national polls for the Democratic presidential nomination began to break as well. One week ago,...
By Eric Ostermeier on March 18, 2008
Barack Obama's speech this morning on race and politics was favorably received by media commentators, though it may have come too late to prevent the damage done to his campaign. Obama's longtime association with Reverend Jeremiah Wright will link the Illinois Senator in the public's mind (and perhaps in political...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 24, 2008
Political pundits have largely explained Rudy Giuliani's decline over the past few months as a direct result of two factors: a) his failed campaign strategy that abandoned the early primary states and b) John McCain's surge—the latter being a logical supposition considering both candidates are considered to vie for the...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 9, 2008
The Associated Press is reporting that Democratic New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will drop out of the presidential race. Richardson has consistently placed fourth in national and most state polls throughout the past year. Richardson received 5 percent of the vote in New Hampshire last night....
By Eric Ostermeier on January 4, 2008
With five Republican candidates polling at 10 or more percent in the Iowa caucuses (Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul), as well as in national polls (substituting Rudy Giuliani for Ron Paul), the GOP race certainly appears to be the horserace to end all horseraces....
By Eric Ostermeier on January 4, 2008
Update: MSNBC's report late Thursday night that Mike Gravel had exited the race was not true. According to Gravel's official campaign website: MSNBC pundit Keith Olbermann has incorrectly declared that Sen. Gravel has dropped out of the race following the January third caucus in Iowa. This is not true, and...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
The Democratic field is now down to five. According to MSNBC, Mike Gravel - who was polling in last place across the board among the original eight Democratic candidates - announced he has exited the presidential race, joining Chris Dodd and Joe Biden from earlier this evening. No Republican has...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
Democratic Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden each ended their bids for the Democratic presidential nomination tonight, after poor showings in the Iowa caucuses. Neither candidate was polling in double digits nationally, nor in double digits outside of their home states. Therefore the greatest impact their abence will have on...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 23, 2007
During NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday morning, Ron Paul was the latest recipient of host Tim Russert's grilling of presidential candidates. Paul is currently polling around 5 percent in national polls on the GOP side, and is flirting with double that amount in some state polls, such as New...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 21, 2007
Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo's departure from the GOP race on Thursday didn't cause a big ripple on the political scene. But, for a candidate who never polled above 5 percent in any state or national poll other than his home state of Colorado, Tancredo did help leave a footprint on...
By Eric Ostermeier on December 19, 2007
As tracked here at Smart Politics over the past few months, John McCain continues to prove to be the strongest Republican candidate to defeat the Democrats in 2008. McCain consistently, and by wide margins, polls better than his chief GOP rivals in almost all key battleground states—those states that Republicans...
By Eric Ostermeier on August 20, 2007
The nation-wide partisan swing from the Republicans to the Democrats in 2006 was felt across the United States in a number of statewide and district races. Democrats won a majority of governorships, took back control of the U.S. House and Senate, and won back several state legislative chambers. This change...
By Eric Ostermeier on June 4, 2007
Eight Democratic candidates debated at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire on Sunday night. While the headlines from the debate focused on Iraq and health care, by far the most controversial stances carved out by the presidential hopefuls was their unwillingness to have English become the nation's official language....
By Eric Ostermeier on May 29, 2007
Despite lukewarm performances at the first two GOP debates and a national campaign that appears to be lagging well behind Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator John McCain continues to lead the Republican frontrunner in new polls released by American Research Group (ARG) in 3 key states: Iowa (caucus = January...
By Eric Ostermeier on May 4, 2007
Despite running third behind Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in every national poll to become the Democratic presidential nominee, John Edwards has emerged as the only candidate poised thus far to defeat leading GOP contender, Rudy Giuliani. Earlier this week, SurveyUSA released polls in 11 states of head-to-head candidate...
By Eric Ostermeier on April 7, 2007
It was not much of a surprise when all three incumbent governors from the Upper Midwest (Tim Pawlenty, Mike Rounds, and Jim Doyle) won their respective re-election bids last November (at least not to Smart Politics, who projected as such). The incumbency advantage is not only a prized possession of...
By Eric Ostermeier on April 5, 2007
It's been more than a week now since John and Elizabeth Edwards announced that her cancer had returned. Media coverage of the Edwards team was widely positive throughout the week, and the Edwards campaign has experienced a bump in the polls, both in the state polling as well as...
By Eric Ostermeier on March 17, 2007
On Thursday the U.S. Senate rejected a Democratic-led joint resolution calling for phased redeployment of U.S. forces from Iraq within 4 months and a goal of complete redeployment by the end of March 2008. The 50-48 vote included one Republican (Gordon Smith of Oregon) joining the Democrats, and three...
