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Republican Party ID Matches Democrats for First Time in Minnesota Since October 2005

The latest monthly SurveyUSA poll finds more Gopher State residents identifying as Republicans than at any point in more than four years. The new poll, conducted July 17-19 of 600 adults statewide, also finds Republicans now match the Democrats in party ID for the first time since October 2005....

Bachmann Voting Record Is 2nd Least Supportive of Obama in U.S. House

Last month a Smart Politics analysis of the most conservative members of the U.S. House (as determined by National Journal's annual rankings) found Representative Michele Bachmann to have received the smallest margin of victory of the 44 most conservative Republicans who won reelection in 2008. That blog explained how none...

How Blue Are the Blue Dog Democrats?

Congressional Quarterly's vote study for the first half of 2009 is in the books, and finds that House Democrats overall supported Barack Obama 91.1 percent of the time in which the President stated his clear policy preference on legislation that received a floor vote. But what about the Blue Dog...

How Do We Judge Governor Pawlenty's Political Legacy?

As Tim Pawlenty completes the remaining 18+ months of his second term, before venturing into (politically or financially) greener pastures, he has vowed to "Continue to spend every day doing what's right for them. Minnesota will get my very best until I'm done. There is much important and difficult work...

Is Minnesota the Most Democratic-Friendly State in the Midwest?

Smart Politics recently examined Governor Tim Pawlenty's approval rating and highlighted its remarkable strength and stability in the face of the current economic crisis. But Pawlenty's popularity is also noteworthy when viewed in the greater partisan environment of the Gopher State. A Smart Politics analysis of state and federal officeholders...

Marty Seifert: His Own Kind of Republican

In a colorful speech delivered at the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs on Wednesday afternoon, Minnesota House Minority Leader Marty Seifert (HD 21A-Marshall) discussed some of the differences between a 'Marty Seifert Republican' and a 'Washington, D.C. Republican' as well as drew some policy distinctions between himself and Governor Tim...

Democrats Lure Independents to Make Gains in Party ID In Minnesota and Upper Midwest; GOP Base Solid

Although President George W. Bush lost Minnesota in the 2004 presidential election and Republicans lost 14 seats in the Minnesota House from the 2002 election cycle, the GOP still held a slim advantage in Party ID in Minnesota that year, as well as across the Upper Midwest. That advantage has...

Live Blog: Conservatism Today

2:15 p.m. "Conservatism Today" is the fourth panel convened today at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. Moderating this afternoon's panel is E.J. Dionne (Columnist, Washington Post and Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution). The panelists are: *...

Minnesota Home to Increasing Number of Self-Identified Democrats

A Smart Politics study of the partisan leanings of Minnesota residents finds that the percentage of self-identified Democrats has increased nearly 30 percent since 2005. While the percentage of self-identified Republicans has dropped, it seems the Democratic Party is increasing its numbers largely from converting independents to its side. Smart...

Live Blog: State of the GOP and Conservatism in Minnesota

12:00 p.m. Today's forum at the Humphrey Institute, sponsored by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, focuses on the state of the Minnesota Republican Party and conservatism. The event is moderated by Dr. Larry Jacobs, Director of the Center, and includes the following panelists: Steve Sviggum, Commissioner,...

Live Blogging: Former MN Congressman Vin Weber On the State of the GOP

7:30 a.m. Vin Weber, former 6-term Minnesota Republican U.S. Representative (1981-1993), will be speaking at the Humphrey Institute today on the state of the Republican Party and conservatism. Despite generally low approval of the job the Democrats have done since seizing control of the U.S. House and Senate with last...

Live Blog: Andrew Kohut (Pew Research Center) On the 2008 Elections

12:05pm. Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center is speaking this afternoon at the Humphrey Institute in the first of two events today. This speech is entitled, "What to Watch in the 2008 Elections." Kohut is one of the nation's leading authorities on public opinion research and he is the...

Republican ID at Lowest Level in Years in Minnesota

According to a new poll released last week by SurveyUSA, the number of Minnesotans who identify themselves as Republicans has dropped to just 25 percent—the lowest level in twenty-five polls released by the organization dating back to May 2005. In October 2006—three weeks before Election Day, 39 percent of...

Choosing Sides: The Decline of Independents

With the 2006 elections being cited as most expensive in U.S. history, filled with some of the nastiest campaign ads ever, one might expect to find increased disgust among the electorate for the two major parties responsible for these campaigns, especially by those who only weakly identify themselves with...



Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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