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U.S. House


Smart Politics Projections: South Dakota U.S. House

Congresswoman Herseth Sandlin has no padding at the top of the ticket

Smart Politics Projections: Iowa U.S. House

Braley's and Loebsack's districts have enough of a Democratic partisan tilt to see them through, while Boswell has been in this position several times over his previous seven campaigns

Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin U.S. House

Republicans eye first two-seat U.S. House pick up in Badger State since 1966 GOP wave

Election Profile: Minnesota's 8th Congressional District

Oberstar is the longest serving Congressman in Gopher State history

Election Profile: Minnesota's 7th Congressional District

In 2008, the Congressman enjoyed the largest margin of victory of his career - 44.5 points over Republican Glen Menze

Election Profile: Minnesota's 6th Congressional District

The fight for Bachmann's seat has seen $16.2 million in campaign contributions across all candidates - the most of any U.S. House race in the nation by more than $6 million

Election Profile: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District

Ellison enjoyed the largest margin of victory for a one-term incumbent in the history of the Gopher State in 2008

Election Profile: Minnesota's 4th Congressional District

The DFL has carried the 4th District in every race from 1948 through 2008

Election Profile: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District

Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District has not voted for a DFL candidate since 1958 - a string of 25 consecutive elections

Election Profile: Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District

Gopher State's 2nd CD's 14.5-point average margin of victory sine 2002 is the 36th smallest in the country

Election Profile: Minnesota's 1st Congressional District

With the exception of DFLer Tim Penny's six-term service from 1984-1992, the GOP had won every 1st District contest from 1892 through 2004

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District

From 1978 to 2004, only 3 of the 14 elections in the 8th District were decided by less than 10 points; during the last two election cycles, the district has been one of the most competitive in the nation

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District

The retirement of 21-term incumbent (and Appropriations Chair) David Obey has opened up one of the GOP's prized districts in 2010

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District

Wisconsin's 6th CD only has a +4 GOP Partisan Voting Index tilt, making it just the 190th most Republican district in the nation

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District

Democrats have failed to field a candidate against Sensenbrenner six times during his 16 victorious congressional campaigns

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District

Wisconsin's 4th CD has voted for the Democratic Party in every U.S. House election since 1948, with an average margin of victory of approximately 50 points since 1960

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District

Wisconsin's 3rd CD has been the 157th most Democratic U.S. House District in the nation over the last two presidential election cycles

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District

Baldwin's district is the 71st most Democratic in the nation

Election Profile: Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District

Wisconsin's 1st CD has a +2 GOP Partisan Voting Index tilt; Ryan's vote total on Election Day will reflect an advantage of at least 10 times that amount

Election Profile: South Dakota's At-Large Congressional Seat

Democrats won the first seven at-large races, and 11 of 15 overall, since the number of South Dakota's representatives dropped from two to one in 1982



Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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