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U.S. House


Election Profile: Iowa's 1st Congressional District

Although the district has only been in the Democratic column for two consecutive election cycles, it is not one of the many vulnerable Democratic U.S. House seats in the Midwest this cycle

PAC Dogs: Oberstar and Peterson Receive More than Half Their Money from Special Interests

PAC contributions to Paulsen up 36 percent from 2008 cycle; contributions to Bachmann down 51.2 percent

Emmer Defeat During GOP Wave Would End Nearly 100-Year Trend in Minnesota Gubernatorial Elections

Minnesota has elected a GOP governor during every Republican wave dating back to 1916

The Still Very Long Odds of an Oberstar (or Walz) Defeat in November

Less than 4 percent of Minnesota U.S. House incumbents have been defeated out of more than 200 who won at least 60 percent of the vote during the previous election cycle

Western States to Eclipse Midwest in Representation to U.S. House for First Time in History

It took 160 years, but Western states will finally eclipse the Midwest in the number of Representatives it sends to D.C. in 2012

Twitter Wars: Tarryl Clark vs. Michele Bachmann

Clark campaign delivers twelve times as many 'tweet attacks' as Bachmann

Vin Weber Talks Washington (And Minnesota) Politics

Weber says GOP will net 48 or 49 seats in House, 8 seats in Senate, and Tom Horner to hit 20 percent mark in Minnesota gubernatorial race

Minnesota Third Parties to Set Modern Mark for Number of Midterm U.S. House Candidates in 2010

Independence Party leads the way with seven - the most third party U.S. House candidates to run in any election cycle since the DFL merger in 1944

What are the Most Partisan Cities in Minnesota for U.S. House Campaign Contributions?

Champlin and Lakeland have the largest Republican tilts for U.S. House campaign contributions; Anoka, Elk River, and Minneapolis have the largest Democratic tilts

Wayzata: The Hamptons of Minnesota?

Small western suburban city of less than 5,000 residents has given $415,000+ to Minnesota U.S. House candidates - third highest in the state and less than $30,000 behind St. Paul

No Hometown Advantage for Michele Bachmann in Stillwater

Clark even with Bachmann in per-day fundraising from Stillwater; Congresswoman has shed top of the ticket GOP vote in the City in both 2006 and 2008

And the Leader in Minneapolis Campaign Fundraising Is...Maureen Reed?

Former 6th CD DFLer who suspended her campaign more than two months ago has still raised the most money from Minneapolis residents of any U.S. House candidate this election cycle

Loss by Herseth Sandlin in 2010 South Dakota US House Race Would Be Historic

Defeat of four-term Democratic Congresswoman would mark biggest fall since statehood for a South Dakota U.S. House incumbent in back-to-back contested elections

Minnesota Political Elites Backing Clark, Not Bachmann

Clark has received 400+ times more money from current and former Minnesota politicians than Congresswoman Bachmann

Bachmann vs Clark: Who's Receiving More Money from Minnesotans?

Bachmann raising $1.02 for every $1.00 Clark raises in Minnesota; Congresswoman outraising Clark in 48 of 50 states overall

Southern U.S. Representatives Leading the Campaign Against Illegal Immigration

Nearly half of Southern U.S. House incumbents address illegal immigration on campaign websites, compared to 30 percent from the West, 23 percent in the Midwest, and 14 percent out East

GOP U.S. House Incumbents Six Times More Likely to Run Get-Tough on Illegal Immigration Campaigns than Democrats

Half of Republican incumbents are highlighting get-tough anti-illegal immigration policy solutions on campaign websites compared to just 8 percent of Democrats

Minnesota U.S. Representatives Silent on Illegal Immigration on Campaign Websites

Delegation campaign websites largely silent on issue as support to adopt Arizona's anti-illegal immigration law eclipses 60 percent in Minnesota

A Profile of the Tea Party Caucus

Caucus members skew southern, average 10 years of service in the House, won their '08 races by 29 points, and represent districts with an average GOP tilt of +14 points

Redistricting Historically Fails to Make Minnesota U.S. Representatives Vulnerable

Only 10 Representatives from Minnesota's Congressional Districts have been defeated after redistricting in election years ending in '2' since statehood



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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