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U.S. House


Minnesota's 6th CD: The Most Politically Volatile District in the State Since 1944 DFL Merger

District has switched parties eight times since DFL merger in April 1944, including five times since 1980 - twice as many as any other district in Minnesota

Republicans Rejoice as National League Wins All-Star Game 3-1

GOP hopes Tuesday night's National League victory will once again foretell significant Republican gains in Congress this November

Inside the SurveyUSA Poll of Minnesota's 6th Congressional District

July 2010 poll shows notable sampling differences in percentage of males, independents, and voters above the age of 50 from spot-on late October 2008 poll of the district

Congressional Republicans Pulling for National League Victory in All-Star Game

National League victory has preceded each of the nine election cycles with double-digit GOP gains in U.S. House since 1950

Older and Wiser? Minnesota's Aging U.S. House Delegation

Delegation has three 60+ year-old members for first time since 1958

Minnesota U.S. Representatives throughout History: A (Geographically) Open Casting Call

Less than 40 percent of Minnesota's 133 U.S. Representatives were born in the Gopher State, including just two of eight in the current state delegation

Bachmann Has Raised $13.41 per 6th CD Likely Voter in 2010 Election Cycle to Date

6th CD candidates could spend $35+ per voter collectively by Election Day

Apologygate: Could Joe Barton Lose His U.S. House Seat?

Barton has enjoyed a 39-point average margin of victory since 1984

Are Bachmann, Kline, and Paulsen 'Too' Conservative for Their Congressional Districts?

Difference between Kline's conservative vote ranking and his district's Partisan Voting Index ranking is the 2nd largest among all House Republicans; Bachmann 14th largest, Paulsen 27th

Veterans in U.S. House Voted 55-37 Against Repeal of Ban on Gays in Military

1 out of 5 Democratic veterans voted against the repeal, including 2 out of 5 Blue Dog veterans; 19 out of 20 GOP veterans opposed amendment

U.S. Military Service in the U.S. House of Representatives

GOP caucus has 60 percent higher rate of service than Democratic caucus; 17 state delegations have no members with military background

DFL Goal to Defeat Bachmann Faces Significant Historical Challenges

Minnesota GOP has held 95 percent of its U.S. House seats when Republicans net a dozen or more seats nationwide since the DFL merger in 1944

Unfamiliar Faces: 2010 Likely to Set Mark for Fewest U.S. House Incumbents on the Ballot this Decade

Seats without incumbents on the ballot are 56 percent more likely to be Republican than Democratic since 2002

How Competitive Are U.S. House Special Elections?

Special elections are 17.4 points more competitive than general election contests; special election seats are also 4 times more likely to switch parties

David Obey's Exit and the Badger State Congressmen Who Left Before Him

Obey served alongside 31 different Wisconsin U.S. Representatives since election in 1969

Reapportionment Winners and Losers Through the Years

Pennsylvania (-17 seats) and New York (-16 seats) have lost the largest number of seats from their peak U.S. House delegations; the Keystone State is slated to lose a seat again for a 9th consecutive census period

Will the GOP Sweep North and South Dakota's U.S. House Seats?

Republicans have never carried both single-member at-large districts in the same election cycle; Democrats have won 25 of 29 U.S. House contests in the Dakotas since 1982

Has Gerrymandering Lost Its Punch?

Current redistricting period has produced the closest relationship between votes received and seats won by party across the nation's 435 U.S. House districts since the 1940s

PAC Money Comprises Only 5 Percent of Bachmann's Q1 2010 Fundraising

Special interest PAC contributions fall for 4th consecutive quarter as percentage of Bachmann's total fundraising

Is the Democratic Party 'Overrepresented' in the U.S. House?

Democratic candidates have won 772 more U.S. House seats since 1942 than their cumulative 'proportional vote share,' or 23 seats per election cycle; +27 seats in 2008



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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