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Minnesota '08 U.S. House Contests More Competitive Than National Average by Double-Digits

As Minnesota gears up for congressional and legislative redistricting in the next few years, as well as the possible loss of a U.S. House seat, the Gopher State can take some pride in the fact that its U.S. House contests continue to be more competitive than the national average by...

Upper Midwestern Reapportionment, Part II: A Historical Overview

In a follow-up to yesterday’s discussion of the 2012 projected reapportionment, Smart Politics presents two tables to illustrate the diminishing political influence of Minnesota and the Upper Midwestern battleground states in the U.S. House as a result of population shifts in the United States. Table 1 demonstrates how the projected...

How Much Will 2012 Reapportionment Reduce Minnesota’s Political Influence?

About a year ago Smart Politics examined the political impact of Iowa losing a seat in the U.S. House, as it is projected to do after the 2012 reapportionment. State Demographer Tom Gillaspy recently projected Minnesota is also on track to lose a seat. Should this occur, the impact on...

Bigger D.C. Power Broker: Jim Oberstar or David Obey?

The Upper Midwest is home to a disproportionate amount of power when it comes to its Representatives in the U.S. House. Three of the twenty-one House Committee chairs hail from Minnesota and Wisconsin, with two of those, DFL Congressmen Jim Oberstar (MN-08) and Democratic Congressman David Obey (WI-07) each...

Smart Politics Projections: U.S. House Races

Smart Politics’ final set in its series of national and Upper Midwestern federal and state electoral projections is the balance of power in the U.S. House. Smart Politics Projections: The U.S. House Even before the financial crisis hit the U.S. two months ago, Democrats were poised to pick-up several...

DFL Tries to Make History in U.S. House Races

As pundits weigh in on their pre-Election Day predictions, a great deal of attention has turned to the Gopher State – not only for its high profile Senate race, but also due to its two competitive U.S. House races in the 3rd and 6th Districts. The DFL plan to sweep...

Democratic-Led Iowa U.S. House Delegation a Rarity

Iowa Democrats are poised to return to the U.S. House as the majority delegation in back-to-back elections for just the fourth time in the history of the Hawkeye State. If reelected, the state’s Democratic U.S. Representatives (Bruce Braley from the 1st District, David Loebsack from the 2nd District, and Leonard...

Upper Midwestern House Delegation Split in Support of Financial Industry Bailout Bill

The rejection by the U.S. House today of the $700 billion financial industry bailout package was the result of a stranglely-cobbled coalition of conservative Republicans, blue-dog Democrats, and liberal Democrats. The bill, backed by President George W. Bush, eventually won the support of just 205 Representatives, with 228 voting ‘nay.’...

US House Snapshot: Republicans Brace for More Losses

Media coverage of the 2008 election is rightly centered at the moment on the fascinating 2008 presidential race; any remaining coverage seems to be focused on the U.S. Senate – and whether or not the Democrats can turn in a miraculous performance in 2008 to achieve a filibuster-proof majority, as...

Historical Snapshot: U.S. House Races in Minnesota

After picking up one seat in the 2006 election, the DFL eyes another in 2008. The retirement of Republican Jim Ramstad, after 18 years of service, opens up a competitive 6th Congressional District. The DFL has enjoyed success in U.S. House races in recent years, particularly since 1976 when Minnesota...

Iowa Congressional Delegation Split in Its Endorsements

Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack—in his first term representing Iowa's 2nd District—endorsed Senator Barack Obama for president today, to make an even 1-1-1 split among the top Democratic rivals - reflective of the close 3-way race heading into the last few weeks before the January 3rd caucuses. Last Friday, Hillary Clinton...

Political Influence of Upper Midwest In Decline?

Iowa's influence on presidential politics is in the spotlight right now, with its caucuses now just 37 days away, on January 3, 2008. The winner of each party's caucus is by no means guaranteed to go on and win the nomination, but a surprise showing can go a long way...

DFL Prospects in Ramstad's 3rd CD Open Seat

After Republican U.S. Representative Jim Ramstad announced his retirement Monday, effective at the end of this term (his 9th), the buzz around Minnesota politics was that his open seat would produce a competitive Congressional District race—one that was ripe for the picking for the DFL. And there is data...

Midwest Felt Bigger 'Democratic Bump' in '06 Than U.S. Overall

The nation-wide partisan swing from the Republicans to the Democrats in 2006 was felt across the United States in a number of statewide and district races. Democrats won a majority of governorships, took back control of the U.S. House and Senate, and won back several state legislative chambers. This change...

Live Blogging at Congressman Ramstad Event

12:00 pm. Jim Ramstad's speech today is entitled "Life as a Centrist in the New Congress." Ramstad has touted his moderate, centrist credentials in recent years, and there is evidence in his voting record to bolster this claim. In 2006, the Republican congressman was rated fairly dead center -- the...

Smart Politics Live Blogging at Congressman Ramstad Event

Smart Politics will be blogging live covering Republican Congressman Jim Ramstad (MN-03) from the Humphrey Institute on Tuesday, August 14th, from Noon to 1:15 pm. The talk, sponsored by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, is entitled " "Life as a Centrist in the New Congress" and...

Upper Midwest House Members Vote Along Party Lines On Iraq Withdrawal

On Thursday the U.S. House voted 223-201 to require the Secretary of Defense to commence the reduction of the number of United States Armed Forces in Iraq to a limited presence by April 1, 2008. The Upper Midwestern delegation voted strictly along party lines: Democratic Representatives Oberstar, Walz, Peterson,...

Live Blogging: Congressman Oberstar on Transportation Policy

12:00 p.m. The title of Congressman Jim Oberstar's (MN-08) talk today at the Humphrey Institute is "Transportation Policy and America's Future." Oberstar is the Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, after serving more than a decade as its ranking Democratic member. In part due to the 17-term Congressman's...

Smart Politics Live Blogging at Congressman Oberstar Event

Smart Politics will be blogging live covering Congressman Jim Oberstar's (MN-08) talk at the Humphrey Institute on Monday, June 25th, from Noon to 1:00 pm. The talk, sponsored by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, is entitled "Transportation Policy and America's Future," and is the sixth...

Live Blogging: Congressman Keith Ellison Event

9:30 a.m. Congressman Keith Ellison (MN-05) came into the 110th Congress as one of the Democratic Party's new stars (and the only Muslim in the House), despite his predecessor (longtime Congressman Martin Sabo) failing to offer a ringing endorsement during the 2006 campaign. Ellison nabbed a prized seat on the...



Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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