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Presidency


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Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

By Eric Ostermeier on July 8, 2011
Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state has voted for the winner 36 times.

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Casey Anthony Mentioned in More Broadcast News Reports than Any GOP Presidential Candidate Since Day 1 of Trial

By Eric Ostermeier on July 6, 2011
Anthony is mentioned in nearly 900 programs since May 24th opening statements across six major broadcast outlets; Romney (764) and Bachmann (609) lead the GOP field.

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McCotter Tries to Buck Michigan's Dismal History of Presidential Campaigns

By Eric Ostermeier on July 5, 2011
The Wolverine State has produced more than a dozen presidential candidacies; two resulted in party nominations, but none have been elected to the White House.

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Do Governors Make the "Most Successful Presidents?"

By Eric Ostermeier on June 30, 2011
The top rated presidents in U.S. history are split 50/50 between those who had gubernatorial experience and those that did not.

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U.S. Senate Eyes First Session During 4th of July Holiday Since Watergate

By Eric Ostermeier on June 30, 2011
The last time Congress did not take a July 4th recess was in 1974 in the midst of President Richard Nixon's last days in office at the climax of the Watergate scandal.

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Who Could Play the 'Turner' in Michele's Bachman(n) Turner Overdrive?

By Eric Ostermeier on June 29, 2011
If nominated, which Turner would be Michele Bachmann's best pick as a VP running mate to see a worn-out journalistic pun come full circle?

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Bachmann Tries to Defy History's Long Trail of Failed U.S. Representative Presidential Bids

By Eric Ostermeier on June 27, 2011
More than 30 presidential campaigns have been launched by sitting U.S. House members over the last 100 years; all have failed and more than 3/4 ultimately ran for reelection to their House seat

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Romney Remains Lone Blue State GOP Presidential Candidate

By Eric Ostermeier on June 24, 2011
Nine of the 10 announced GOP candidates hail from red or purple states.

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Did Obama Mislead Americans on Trends in U.S. Troop Fatalities?

By Eric Ostermeier on June 23, 2011
U.S. troop fatalities in Iraq are on pace for a 16 percent increase from 2010; American deaths in Afghanistan over the last three months are up 7 percent from the same period in 2010.

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The Myth of the Convention State Boost, Part II: The Republicans

By Eric Ostermeier on June 21, 2011
Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

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Michele Bachmann Debuts on Jeopardy!

By Eric Ostermeier on June 20, 2011
The Minnesota Congresswoman was nearly the most valuable answer (that is, question) to an $800 clue in an "All Politics Is Local" category last week on the popular game show.

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Bachmann 153rd Candidate to File 2012 Presidential Paperwork and 1 of 4 This Week

By Eric Ostermeier on June 16, 2011
FEC documents show 156 individuals from more than 35 states have filed to run for the presidency in 2012; more than 1/3 have run for president before.

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Obama Under Fire: Who Launched the Most Attacks at the President during the New Hampshire Debate?

By Eric Ostermeier on June 15, 2011
Mitt Romney landed the most jabs at Obama among the seven candidates; Herman Cain and Ron Paul, meanwhile, pulled the most punches.

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Face Time: Which Republican Candidate Won the Battle for the Camera Lens?

By Eric Ostermeier on June 14, 2011
Romney spoke for 11 minutes and 21 seconds with five other candidates clocking in at less than 9 minutes and 40 seconds; Pawlenty came in second with 10:51.

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Remember When? Bachmann Once Led the Cheers for Ron Paul 2012 Candidacy

By Eric Ostermeier on June 13, 2011
Less than two years ago, Bachmann was Paul's opening act and applauded his prospective 2012 candidacy; on Monday the two U.S. Representatives share the New Hampshire stage as equals.

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Obama the Most Veto-Shy President Since James Garfield

By Eric Ostermeier on June 9, 2011
Obama has issued just one veto every 435 days; the presidential average since 1881 is once every 20 days.

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Rick Santorum, Catholicism, and the 2012 Republican Ticket

By Eric Ostermeier on June 6, 2011
Republicans have nominated a Catholic just once on the presidential ballot in 152 years, compared to seven times for the Democrats since 1928.

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Bachmann vs. Pawlenty: How do Same-State Same Party Presidential Rivals Fare?

By Eric Ostermeier on June 1, 2011
More than two-dozen pairs of candidates from the same state have sought the same major party nomination in the post-Civil War era; 15 have won the nomination and nine the presidency.

Flashback Fail: Tim Pawlenty is the "Arnold Schwarzenegger of the Midwest"

By Eric Ostermeier on May 23, 2011
In 2004, Club for Growth founder and then President Stephen Moore called T-Paw "Arnold Schwarzenegger of the Midwest"

From Rumor to Reality: Pawlenty's 2,456-Day Presidential Candidacy Roll Out

By Eric Ostermeier on May 23, 2011
National chatter of a T-Paw presidential bid first began nearly seven years ago at the 2004 RNC

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Political Crumbs

Curse of the '4'?

May 22, 2013

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

May 2, 2013

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.


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