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Presidency


Rick Santorum, Catholicism, and the 2012 Republican Ticket

Republicans have nominated a Catholic just once on the presidential ballot in 152 years, compared to seven times for the Democrats since 1928.

Bachmann vs. Pawlenty: How do Same-State Same Party Presidential Rivals Fare?

More than two-dozen pairs of candidates from the same state have sought the same major party nomination in the post-Civil War era; 15 have won the nomination and nine the presidency.

Flashback Fail: Tim Pawlenty is the "Arnold Schwarzenegger of the Midwest"

In 2004, Club for Growth founder and then President Stephen Moore called T-Paw "Arnold Schwarzenegger of the Midwest"

From Rumor to Reality: Pawlenty's 2,456-Day Presidential Candidacy Roll Out

National chatter of a T-Paw presidential bid first began nearly seven years ago at the 2004 RNC

Reading the Tweet Leaves: Sarah Palin's Vanishing Act

Palin tweeting 64 percent less frequently in 2011 compared to 2010

Humphrey Event: Direct National Popular Vote in Presidential Elections

Humphrey event examines the movement afoot that seeks to implement an electoral system with a direct, nationwide popular vote

Gingrich Launches First Presidential Bid by House Speaker Since 1940

Gingrich becomes just the 4th sitting or ex-House Speaker to run for president since 1900 and the first since World War II

A House Divided: A Content Analysis of Congressional Press Releases on the bin Laden Killing

Less than 25 percent of Republican U.S. House members give credit to Obama in press releases on the bin Laden kill; less than 3 percent of Democrats acknowledge Bush

Ron Paul to Become 3rd Oldest Major Party Presidential Candidate in U.S. History

Only Minnesota's Harold Stassen and Alaska's Mike Gravel would have made older presidents if elected

Can Haley Barbour End Mississippi's Presidential Drought?

Mississippi has not produced a competitive presidential candidate who has been close to winning a major party nomination across four-dozen election cycles since statehood in 1817

Will 2nd Time Be a Charm for Mitt Romney as He Attempts to Buck History in 2012?

Only five candidates have been elected to the White House on their second attempt

Which States Have the Most Split-Ticket Voting in Presidential-U.S. Senate Election Cycles?

Montana is the only state in the nation to split its presidential-U.S. Senate ticket in a majority of elections

Presidents' Day Special: Will Obama's Youth Be an Asset Again in 2012?

At five consecutive cycles, the U.S. is in the midst of its longest period in presidential election history in which the younger candidate has won the popular vote

Meet the New Bellwether States: Ohio and Nevada

Ohio has the longest current streak in the nation with 12 consecutive elections voting for the winning presidential candidate; Nevada has the highest rate over the last 100 years at 96 percent (24 of 25 cycles)

Can Mark Dayton Give Barack Obama a Boost in Minnesota in 2012?

History suggests having a DFLer in St. Paul is unlikely to be a decisive factor, but may be worth +1.4 points to Obama in next year's presidential race

Presidential Battleground States by the Numbers Since 1968

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lead the way with nine races decided by single-digits over the last 11 presidential election cycles; Missouri and Oregon are next with eight

How High Is Too High? Unemployment and the 2012 Presidential Race

Ronald Reagan got reelected in a landslide in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, while George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992 with a nearly identical 7.4 percent rate

Experienced 'Outsiders': Do Ex-Elected Officials Make the Strongest Presidential Challengers?

Incumbent presidents have won only 50 percent of elections against former elected officeholders over the last 220 years, compared to 76 percent against sitting elected officials and those never elected to political office

Obama's SOTU: Uniting the Country...through Pronouns?

Obama's 2011 State of the Union incorporated the 2nd largest percentage of first-person plural pronouns since FDR

Keeping It Simple: Obama Records 2nd Lowest Flesch-Kincaid SOTU Grade Level Score Since FDR

President's 2011 SOTU speech was written at more than a half a grade level lower than 2010's score, which was the 4th lowest in 75+ years

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Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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