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Presidency


Ron Paul to Become 3rd Oldest Major Party Presidential Candidate in U.S. History

Only Minnesota's Harold Stassen and Alaska's Mike Gravel would have made older presidents if elected

Can Haley Barbour End Mississippi's Presidential Drought?

Mississippi has not produced a competitive presidential candidate who has been close to winning a major party nomination across four-dozen election cycles since statehood in 1817

Will 2nd Time Be a Charm for Mitt Romney as He Attempts to Buck History in 2012?

Only five candidates have been elected to the White House on their second attempt

Which States Have the Most Split-Ticket Voting in Presidential-U.S. Senate Election Cycles?

Montana is the only state in the nation to split its presidential-U.S. Senate ticket in a majority of elections

Presidents' Day Special: Will Obama's Youth Be an Asset Again in 2012?

At five consecutive cycles, the U.S. is in the midst of its longest period in presidential election history in which the younger candidate has won the popular vote

Meet the New Bellwether States: Ohio and Nevada

Ohio has the longest current streak in the nation with 12 consecutive elections voting for the winning presidential candidate; Nevada has the highest rate over the last 100 years at 96 percent (24 of 25 cycles)

Can Mark Dayton Give Barack Obama a Boost in Minnesota in 2012?

History suggests having a DFLer in St. Paul is unlikely to be a decisive factor, but may be worth +1.4 points to Obama in next year's presidential race

Presidential Battleground States by the Numbers Since 1968

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lead the way with nine races decided by single-digits over the last 11 presidential election cycles; Missouri and Oregon are next with eight

How High Is Too High? Unemployment and the 2012 Presidential Race

Ronald Reagan got reelected in a landslide in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, while George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992 with a nearly identical 7.4 percent rate

Experienced 'Outsiders': Do Ex-Elected Officials Make the Strongest Presidential Challengers?

Incumbent presidents have won only 50 percent of elections against former elected officeholders over the last 220 years, compared to 76 percent against sitting elected officials and those never elected to political office

Obama's SOTU: Uniting the Country...through Pronouns?

Obama's 2011 State of the Union incorporated the 2nd largest percentage of first-person plural pronouns since FDR

Keeping It Simple: Obama Records 2nd Lowest Flesch-Kincaid SOTU Grade Level Score Since FDR

President's 2011 SOTU speech was written at more than a half a grade level lower than 2010's score, which was the 4th lowest in 75+ years

Obama's Episodic Stories in SOTU All Rooted in 2012 Battleground States

Each of the personal anecdotes relayed by Obama in his 2011 Address featured individuals living in battleground states won by the President in 2008

A Content Analysis of Barack Obama's 2011 State of the Union Address

Obama's statements on education and technology rose compared to his 2010 Address, while statements on the economy and health care declined

Is Democratic Hold on Wisconsin's 2012 U.S. Senate Seat Tied to an Obama Victory?

Badger State has voted for same party of U.S. Senate and Presidential nominees in 14 of 16 election cycles over the last century

Bachmann's Potential Presidential Pathway Not Well-Trodden

Only one sitting member of the U.S. House has been elected president in history (Garfield); only three presidents have been elected with U.S. Representative as the highest elected office attained on their resume

Reapportionment Election Cycles See Highest Turnover in Partisan Control of Presidency

Political parties have lost control of the White House in years ending in '2' at more than twice the rate than all other election cycles since the 1850s

Waiting in the Wings: A Historical Survey of Living Ex-Presidents

Barack Obama is the first Democrat since James Buchanan with two living Democratic ex-presidents to advise him

Location of Democratic National Convention Unlikely to Boost 2012 Vote in Host State

Since 1832, Democratic presidential nominees have suffered a 2.4-point average decline in host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle

Media Myth Exposed: Loss of Democratic Governorships Not Key to Obama's 2012 Battleground State Prospects

Since 1968, Democratic presidential candidates have had the same success rate in carrying states with Democratic governors as Republican governors - 33 percent

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Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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