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Presidency


Experienced 'Outsiders': Do Ex-Elected Officials Make the Strongest Presidential Challengers?

Incumbent presidents have won only 50 percent of elections against former elected officeholders over the last 220 years, compared to 76 percent against sitting elected officials and those never elected to political office

Obama's SOTU: Uniting the Country...through Pronouns?

Obama's 2011 State of the Union incorporated the 2nd largest percentage of first-person plural pronouns since FDR

Keeping It Simple: Obama Records 2nd Lowest Flesch-Kincaid SOTU Grade Level Score Since FDR

President's 2011 SOTU speech was written at more than a half a grade level lower than 2010's score, which was the 4th lowest in 75+ years

Obama's Episodic Stories in SOTU All Rooted in 2012 Battleground States

Each of the personal anecdotes relayed by Obama in his 2011 Address featured individuals living in battleground states won by the President in 2008

A Content Analysis of Barack Obama's 2011 State of the Union Address

Obama's statements on education and technology rose compared to his 2010 Address, while statements on the economy and health care declined

Is Democratic Hold on Wisconsin's 2012 U.S. Senate Seat Tied to an Obama Victory?

Badger State has voted for same party of U.S. Senate and Presidential nominees in 14 of 16 election cycles over the last century

Bachmann's Potential Presidential Pathway Not Well-Trodden

Only one sitting member of the U.S. House has been elected president in history (Garfield); only three presidents have been elected with U.S. Representative as the highest elected office attained on their resume

Reapportionment Election Cycles See Highest Turnover in Partisan Control of Presidency

Political parties have lost control of the White House in years ending in '2' at more than twice the rate than all other election cycles since the 1850s

Waiting in the Wings: A Historical Survey of Living Ex-Presidents

Barack Obama is the first Democrat since James Buchanan with two living Democratic ex-presidents to advise him

Location of Democratic National Convention Unlikely to Boost 2012 Vote in Host State

Since 1832, Democratic presidential nominees have suffered a 2.4-point average decline in host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle

Media Myth Exposed: Loss of Democratic Governorships Not Key to Obama's 2012 Battleground State Prospects

Since 1968, Democratic presidential candidates have had the same success rate in carrying states with Democratic governors as Republican governors - 33 percent

History Predicts Republicans Will Gain 19 Seats in Minnesota House in 2010

Study of midterm elections since 1954 finds party out of power in the White House makes double digit gains in Minnesota House more than 60 percent of the time

Call On Me! Which Reporters and News Organizations Have the President's Ear at Press Conferences?

NBC's Chuck Todd and ABC's Jake Tapper have asked the most questions to date

Face the Nation: Obama Lags Behind Modern Presidents in Delivering Addresses to the American People

Obama waited longer than any president since Truman before delivering first address from the White House

Pawlenty Still Shedding Support for Presidential Candidacy in Home State

Statewide support for 'President Pawlenty' in Minnesota reaches all-time low of 35 percent while his gubernatorial approval rating remains solid

Can Pawlenty Launch a Sam's Club Presidential Campaign from a Target State?

Minnesota ranks #33 in the nation in Sam's Club & Wal-Mart stores per capita, and ranks #1 for Target

Barack Obama Sightings in D.C.: The Where and the When

Obama delivers most remarks while in D.C. from the White House's East Room; the plurality of the President's statements begin at the 11 o'clock hour

Is Barack Obama Ignoring Red State Americans?

President has delivered 8 times the number of remarks outside Washington, D.C. in states he carried in 2008 than states won by John McCain

The Vanishing President? Obama Public Appearances Down 30 Percent in 2010

Study of more than 600 verbal statements finds the President's appearances have dropped from 45 per month in 2009 to 32 in 2010

Presidents Day Special: The Astrological Signs of the Presidents

Elected presidents most frequently born under the sign of Aquarius (1 in 5); Sarah Palin only leading contender of 2012 GOP rumored candidates to be born under this sign

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Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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