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Presidency


Why Ohio? The Numbers Don't Lie (Bellwether States Revisited)

Talk about bellwethers: Ohio's vote for the winning presidential candidate has deviated from the national vote an average of just 2.2 points since 1900 and only 1.3 points since 1964.

Romney Still Slow off the Blocks

While all eyes were on Wisconsin this week, Mitt Romney turned in more sluggish performances in presidential primaries held on Tuesday. Despite effectively sealing the nomination nearly two months ago, Romney failed to crack the 70 percent mark in two more states: South Dakota (66.0 percent) and Montana (68.4 percent)....

Look to Senate Race, Not Walker Recall for Romney vs Obama Tilt in Wisconsin

The Badger State has voted for the same party in presidential and U.S. Senate races in 14 of 16 cycles over the last century.

Romney's Numbers Underwhelm in Final Primary Contests

Romney has carried just three out of 43 states this cycle with 70+ percent of the vote, compared to an average of more than 15 states by previous presumptive GOP nominees.

Battleground States of the Century: Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

Only seven states have had more than half of their presidential election contests decided by single digits over the last 100 years: Missouri, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Delaware, and Oregon.

Voter Turnout Soars in North Carolina and Indiana GOP Primaries from 2008

Buoyed by key primary battles down the ballot and a gay marriage ban initiative, Indiana and North Carolina notch the 3rd and 4th biggest increases in GOP presidential primary turnout from 2008.

A Vote for No One

More than 50,000 North Carolina residents who voted in the Tuesday's Republican presidential primary opted for 'no preference' on their ballot, or 5.2 percent. That marks the second highest percentage of those who have done so in the 40 years of the modern primary era, behind the 9.8 percent who...

Romney Lowers Bar for Presumptive GOP Nominees in Indiana

Romney is the only presumptive Republican presidential nominee to fail to win two-thirds of the vote in the Hoosier State over the last 56 years.

Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia Test Romney and Paul Support

Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race.

Six Months Out: Will 2012 Resemble 2004 or 2008?

The electoral vote count for the 30 states surveyed in May 2004 was identical to the general election; in 2008, the Election Day vote generated a swing of 176 votes among the 36 states surveyed that May.

Beyond 'Forward': State Mottos and Slogans for the 2012 GOP Field

Obama lifted Wisconsin's motto, so which state mottos and slogans might the Republican candidates have picked for their campaigns?

Will Vermont's 27-Cycle GOP Presidential Streak Ever Be Broken?

Nine states currently hold an 11-cycle streak backing the Republican nominee but cannot tie Vermont's record until the Election of 2072.

Connecticut: Red Money Flowing from a Sea of Blue

Only Utah gives more money per capita to Republican presidential candidates and only Utah and Texas have a greater GOP field vs. Obama fundraising disparity.

Ron Paul Still Outraising Romney in at Least 10 States

The Texas Congressman makes large donor fundraising gains in a dozen states on the presumptive GOP nominee in Q1 2012.

Minnesota Poised to Set Democratic Presidential Winning Streak for Non-Southern States

A Barack Obama victory in Minnesota in 2012 will give the Gopher State the longest all-time Democratic winning streak in presidential elections outside of the south at 10 in a row.

Ann Romney Eclipses Michelle Obama in Media Coverage

The Hilary Rosen skirmish has propelled broadcast reports on Ann Romney to double those on the First Lady in April.

Santorum Ends 364-Day White House Bid

Santorum's presidential campaign lasted two months longer than Tim Pawlenty's and Rick Perry's combined.

Presidents Use the Word "Stupid" Too

World leaders, political movements, ethnic groups, and individual Americans have been singled out as being 'stupid' by U.S. Presidents over the last 170 years.

Competitive GOP Primary in Wisconsin Spurs 91% Turnout Surge from 2008

The Romney-Santorum battle rivals the Stassen-MacArthur-Dewey contest in 1948 for the most competitive cycle in the primary's 100-year history; voter turnout soars more than 90 percent from 2008.

Country Strong: Santorum Still Flexing His Muscles in Rural America

Santorum has won more than double the number of counties as the rest of the GOP field combined with Romney tallying less than one-quarter.



Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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