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Presidency


Swing States, Battleground States, or Purple States?

What is the preferred nomenclature in the broadcast media when discussing those key states that are up for grabs in the 2012 presidential election?

The Western Front: Gary Johnson's Libertarian Stronghold

The Top 12 states with the largest average Libertarian vote totals in presidential elections are all located in the western region of the country, led by Alaska, Arizona, and Wyoming.

VP Hype Began Several Years Ago for 2012's Rumored Frontrunners

Tim Pawlenty VP chatter started in 2003 with rumors surrounding Rob Portman and Bobby Jindal as viable #2 picks swirling in early 2008.

What Does Mitt Romney Think About Chief Justice John Roberts?

A look back at what Romney and the 2012 GOP field said about the now controversial Chief Justice who wrote to uphold most of the Affordable Care Act.

Obama vs the Supreme Court: Rhetoric of the 44th President

Obama's critical comments of the Court outweigh favorable comments by more than a 4:1 margin since taking office.

Will Confidence in Supreme Court Erode or Rebound After Obamacare Decision?

The U.S. Supreme Court's net confidence rating during Barack Obama's presidency is at an all-time low since Gallup's measurement began in the early 1970s.

Obama Cabinet Turnover Rate Remains Historically Low (So Far)

With seven months left in his term, the president holds the fourth lowest departure rate of cabinet department heads out of 23 administrations since FDR.

Why Ohio? The Numbers Don't Lie (Bellwether States Revisited)

Talk about bellwethers: Ohio's vote for the winning presidential candidate has deviated from the national vote an average of just 2.2 points since 1900 and only 1.3 points since 1964.

Romney Still Slow off the Blocks

While all eyes were on Wisconsin this week, Mitt Romney turned in more sluggish performances in presidential primaries held on Tuesday. Despite effectively sealing the nomination nearly two months ago, Romney failed to crack the 70 percent mark in two more states: South Dakota (66.0 percent) and Montana (68.4 percent)....

Look to Senate Race, Not Walker Recall for Romney vs Obama Tilt in Wisconsin

The Badger State has voted for the same party in presidential and U.S. Senate races in 14 of 16 cycles over the last century.

Romney's Numbers Underwhelm in Final Primary Contests

Romney has carried just three out of 43 states this cycle with 70+ percent of the vote, compared to an average of more than 15 states by previous presumptive GOP nominees.

Battleground States of the Century: Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

Only seven states have had more than half of their presidential election contests decided by single digits over the last 100 years: Missouri, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Delaware, and Oregon.

Voter Turnout Soars in North Carolina and Indiana GOP Primaries from 2008

Buoyed by key primary battles down the ballot and a gay marriage ban initiative, Indiana and North Carolina notch the 3rd and 4th biggest increases in GOP presidential primary turnout from 2008.

A Vote for No One

More than 50,000 North Carolina residents who voted in the Tuesday's Republican presidential primary opted for 'no preference' on their ballot, or 5.2 percent. That marks the second highest percentage of those who have done so in the 40 years of the modern primary era, behind the 9.8 percent who...

Romney Lowers Bar for Presumptive GOP Nominees in Indiana

Romney is the only presumptive Republican presidential nominee to fail to win two-thirds of the vote in the Hoosier State over the last 56 years.

Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia Test Romney and Paul Support

Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race.

Six Months Out: Will 2012 Resemble 2004 or 2008?

The electoral vote count for the 30 states surveyed in May 2004 was identical to the general election; in 2008, the Election Day vote generated a swing of 176 votes among the 36 states surveyed that May.

Beyond 'Forward': State Mottos and Slogans for the 2012 GOP Field

Obama lifted Wisconsin's motto, so which state mottos and slogans might the Republican candidates have picked for their campaigns?

Will Vermont's 27-Cycle GOP Presidential Streak Ever Be Broken?

Nine states currently hold an 11-cycle streak backing the Republican nominee but cannot tie Vermont's record until the Election of 2072.

Connecticut: Red Money Flowing from a Sea of Blue

Only Utah gives more money per capita to Republican presidential candidates and only Utah and Texas have a greater GOP field vs. Obama fundraising disparity.



Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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