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Presidency


How to Handicap the Super Tuesday Contests

Santorum vote totals are averaging nearly five points higher than the final polling numbers in primary and caucus states; Paul vote totals average four points higher in caucus states

Rick Perry Edging Herman Cain for the Ex-Candidate Vote

More than 50,000 votes have been cast for ex-GOP presidential candidates this cycle.

Land Baron: Santorum Winning Nearly 60 Percent of Counties in GOP Contests

Buoyed by support in rural areas, Rick Santorum has won 215 more counties than Mitt Romney and 58 percent overall after the first 11 contests.

GOP US House Members in Super Tuesday States Withholding Endorsements

Republican U.S. Representatives from Super Tuesday states have endorsed presidential candidates at half the rate (27 percent) of pre-Super Tuesday states (53 percent).

A State Divided: Will Romney or Santorum Reach 40 Percent in Michigan?

Tuesday's winner could set the all-time state mark for the lowest victory total in a Michigan presidential primary.

CNN Gives Candidates the Most Rope While FOX Has the Tightest Leash at GOP Debates

FOX debate moderators speak at a 65 percent higher rate than those at CNN.

Santorum Given the Most Airtime at Arizona GOP Debate

Santorum clocks in with the most speaking time for just the second time in 20 debates this cycle.

Presidents' Day Special: Small State Blues

A president has been elected from a state with less than 10 electoral votes just four times since 1789.

Will Mitt Romney Win the Battle for the Middle Class?

The former Massachusetts governor has discussed middle class Americans in debates more than all other candidates combined.

O Canada: Ron Paul Excels in Northern Border States

The vote for Paul is nearly double in states bordering Canada compared to the rest of the nation for both caucuses and primaries during the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.

Snowflakes and Fingerprints: No Two Media GOP Delegate Counts Are Alike

Each media outlet uses its own math to estimate the current delegate tally of the four remaining GOP candidates...and comes up with different numbers.

Minnesota Caucuses: Paul Reaches Record High, Romney Nears Record Low

Minnesotans deliver the Texas Congressman his best performance in a GOP primary or caucus over the last two cycles...and Romney one of his worst.

The Walker Effect? Wisconsin Ranks Dead Last in Donations to 2012 GOP Field

Utah, Connecticut, and Texas lead the way in large donor per capita contributions to Republican presidential candidates with Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Indiana at the bottom.

Ron Paul Outraising Mitt Romney in 10 States

The Texas Congressman has netted more large donor money than Romney in 10 states including Tuesday's caucus state of Minnesota.

Media Overload on Mitt Romney's "Poor" Comment Comes Nearly Four Months Late

The former Massachusetts governor served up a nearly identical quote at the Dartmouth College New Hampshire debate in mid-October.

Ron Paul: Don't Pin Me Down!

The Texas Congressman is the only major 2012 Republican presidential candidate to take the debate stage without once wearing a lapel pin.

Candidate Code Names: Fun with Anagrams and the 2012 Republican Field

Would Barack Obama rather run against "Metro Minty," "Ethnic Wronging," or "Cranium Stork?"

Why is Mitt Romney Feeling Blue? Candidate Necktie Colors at the GOP Debates

Romney has worn a blue tie in 17 of 18 presidential debates; his opponents usually wear red and Gingrich has not worn a blue tie once.

"My Message is Simple": Obama's SOTU Written at 8th Grade Level for Third Straight Year

Obama's SOTU addresses have the lowest average Flesch-Kincaid score of any modern president; Obama owns three of the six lowest-scoring addresses since FDR.

Romney Plays the Florida Card...in Spades

Romney makes more Sunshine State references in the NBC debate than Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum combined.



Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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