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Michigan


Is Bart Stupak's U.S. House Seat Vulnerable?

Nine-term Democrat has won by more than 32 points in each of the last four election cycles

Democrats Hold Edge Over GOP for Average Years of Service in U.S. House

Despite 30 percent of its caucus elected since 2006, Democrats have served almost 1 more year per member on average than Republicans

Live Blogging: The Michigan Primary

Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Republican primary results tonight in Michigan. These percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reported precincts, not a scientific random sample. 7:10 p.m. Early indications are from exit polls that Republican turnout in this open primary is much...

Smart Politics Live Blogging During Michigan Returns

Smart Politics will be blogging live tonight at 7 p.m. CST when most of the polls close in Michigan. Smart Politics will report up-to-the minute election returns as well as provide analysis of not only the results but also the media coverage and pundit spin regarding what the results mean...

Why Michigan Isn't "Do Or Die" for Romney

After John McCain's 5-point victory over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, pundits and the broadcast media immediately characterized Michigan as a "do or die" state for Romney. A Romney loss to McCain (at the time the predicted winner of Michigan), it was argued, would have three negative effects. First, McCain...

Michigan Decision Likely To Shift Primary Schedule Once Again

Michigan's decision to move its primary to January 15, 2008—a decision signed into law yesterday by Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm—is sure to have a domino effect on the primary calendar, perhaps moving Iowa's caucuses up to December 2007. New Hampshire was slated to be the nation's first primary on January...



Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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