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'Darfur 5' in Little Jeopardy of Losing Congressional Seats

The arrest of Minnesota Representative Keith Ellison and four other members of Congress Monday morning for crossing a police line at the Sudanese Embassy in Washington, D.C. brought front-page attention to the humanitarian crisis and atrocities occurring in the Darfur region of Sudan, but is not likely to bring any...

Super Tuesday Media Coverage: It's All About California, Part 1 (The Democrats)

The overwhelming positive media coverage that Hillary Clinton received during Tuesday night's primary coverage was a bit peculiar—especially considering what each candidate was expected to do prior to Super Tuesday's elections. In light of the full spectrum of election results from February 5th, the only possible explanation for this curiously...

California Primary Live Blog

5:40 p.m. Last polls close in California at 10:00 p.m. CST. The Democrats will allocate 370 of its 441 convention delegates from the primary today: 241 delegates are allocated based on the vote in each of the state's 53 Congressional districts, while 129 delegates are allocated based on the statewide...

California a Toss Up for the GOP

Three new California polls with field dates ending Saturday, February 2nd were released today -- all showing growing momentum for Mitt Romney, despite endorsements this past week for John McCain by Rudy Giuliani and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. All three polls show statistical dead-heats between Romney and McCain: American Research Group...

Smart Politics Study: Edwards Exit Should Boost Obama in California

Sources within the John Edwards campaign have revealed that the former Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee and North Carolina Senator will exit the race for the Democratic nomination today. The timing of the move was somewhat surprising, even though Edwards had not performed above expectations since his narrow second place finish in...



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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