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Florida


McCain, Rubio, GOP Dominate Broadcast Media Coverage of US Senators in 2012

Republican senators are mentioned in more than twice as many news stories as their Democratic counterparts with John McCain and Marco Rubio leading the GOP to eight of the Top 10 slots.

GOP Seeks First Grip on Both US Senate Seats in Decades in Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin

The last time Florida Republicans held both Senate seats was 1875; WI (1957), ND (1960), and NE (1976) could also see an end to a decades-long Democratic presence in its state delegations.

Why is Mitt Romney Feeling Blue? Candidate Necktie Colors at the GOP Debates

Romney has worn a blue tie in 17 of 18 presidential debates; his opponents usually wear red and Gingrich has not worn a blue tie once.

Romney Plays the Florida Card...in Spades

Romney makes more Sunshine State references in the NBC debate than Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum combined.

Head of the Class: The Most Buzzworthy House Freshmen of the 112th Congress

Allen West, Joe Walsh, Tim Scott, and Sean Duffy are the most covered U.S. House freshmen of 2011.

Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state has voted for the winner 36 times.

The Myth of the Convention State Boost, Part II: The Republicans

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Out of Power But Leading the Charge: Nancy Pelosi Issues the Most Press Releases of 2011

Former Speaker Pelosi issues the most press releases of any U.S. Representative during the first three months of 2011

Connie Mack Faces Long Historical Odds in Launching Florida U.S. Senate Bid

Only 2 of 14 Florida U.S. Representatives have notched winning U.S. Senate campaigns since 1970 (14 percent), and just 4 of 17 over the last 100 years

You Say You Want a Revolution? Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates Thriving in 2010

Third party gubernatorial candidates rivaling 1994 for their best showing since the Great Depression

Charlie Crist and the Long Odds of an Independent U.S. Senate Candidacy

Only six men have been elected to a first term in the U.S. Senate without major party backing since popular vote elections in 1914

The 50 Safest U.S. House Districts in the Nation (2002-2008)

Democrats currently hold 43 of the 50 least competitive seats in the nation; John Lewis (GA-05), Kendrick Meek (FL-17), and Richard Neal (MA-02) have not faced a challenger since new district lines were drawn in 2002

Live Blog: The Florida Primary

Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Florida primary results tonight. The following updated percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reporting precincts, not a scientific random sample. 6:15 p.m. As is customary in recent years, the media is releasing selected exit poll data prior...

Smart Politics to Live Blog Florida Primary Returns

Smart Politics will blog live Tuesday night as the Florida primary results come in. The focus will be on the Republican primary, as no delegates will be awarded on the Democratic side. In addition to real-time reporting of results and media watchdog commentary, Smart Politics will examine the impact of...

Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani All Hope for a McCain Loss in Florida

While it is possible Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani will all remain in the GOP race regardless of the outcome in Florida on Tuesday (Giuliani has at least stated he won't exit the race), each of these campaigns would benefit greatly from an "Anybody But McCain" victory. The...



Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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