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Death of the Battlegrounds? The 2012 Election in History

The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

All-Republican US Senate Delegation Wait Continues in Florida, Wisconsin, North Dakota

The three states have not been represented by two Republicans in the U.S. Senate for a combined 244 years and counting.

Final Battleground Maps: 114 Electoral Votes Up for Grabs

A dozen media outlets still yield 10 different battleground state maps less than a week from Election Day, with an average of nine states and 114 electoral votes hanging in the balance.

Less than 1% of Voting Eligible Population Polled in Battleground States This Cycle

After more than 640 polls, 531,000 individuals have been surveyed this cycle about the Romney-Obama horserace across the 57.3 million voting eligible population of the 10 main battleground states.

Battleground States Revisited: The Maps They Are A-Changin'

Two-thirds of battleground state maps have changed over the past month, yielding 10 different maps across 12 different media outlets.

RNC: No Rick Scott, No Problem

National political conventions have been frequently held in states in which the sitting governor does not attend (though usually a governor from the opposing party).

Will the Real Battleground States Please Stand Up?

An analysis of major media outlets' election projection maps finds few can agree on a definitive list of toss-up states in the 2012 presidential race.

McCain, Rubio, GOP Dominate Broadcast Media Coverage of US Senators in 2012

Republican senators are mentioned in more than twice as many news stories as their Democratic counterparts with John McCain and Marco Rubio leading the GOP to eight of the Top 10 slots.

GOP Seeks First Grip on Both US Senate Seats in Decades in Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin

The last time Florida Republicans held both Senate seats was 1875; WI (1957), ND (1960), and NE (1976) could also see an end to a decades-long Democratic presence in its state delegations.

Why is Mitt Romney Feeling Blue? Candidate Necktie Colors at the GOP Debates

Romney has worn a blue tie in 17 of 18 presidential debates; his opponents usually wear red and Gingrich has not worn a blue tie once.

Romney Plays the Florida Card...in Spades

Romney makes more Sunshine State references in the NBC debate than Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum combined.

Head of the Class: The Most Buzzworthy House Freshmen of the 112th Congress

Allen West, Joe Walsh, Tim Scott, and Sean Duffy are the most covered U.S. House freshmen of 2011.

Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state has voted for the winner 36 times.

The Myth of the Convention State Boost, Part II: The Republicans

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Out of Power But Leading the Charge: Nancy Pelosi Issues the Most Press Releases of 2011

Former Speaker Pelosi issues the most press releases of any U.S. Representative during the first three months of 2011

Connie Mack Faces Long Historical Odds in Launching Florida U.S. Senate Bid

Only 2 of 15 Florida U.S. Representatives have notched winning U.S. Senate campaigns since 1970 and just 4 of 19 over the last 100 years

You Say You Want a Revolution? Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates Thriving in 2010

Third party gubernatorial candidates rivaling 1994 for their best showing since the Great Depression

Charlie Crist and the Long Odds of an Independent U.S. Senate Candidacy

Only six men have been elected to a first term in the U.S. Senate without major party backing since popular vote elections in 1914

The 50 Safest U.S. House Districts in the Nation (2002-2008)

Democrats currently hold 43 of the 50 least competitive seats in the nation; John Lewis (GA-05), Kendrick Meek (FL-17), and Richard Neal (MA-02) have not faced a challenger since new district lines were drawn in 2002

Live Blog: The Florida Primary

Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Florida primary results tonight. The following updated percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reporting precincts, not a scientific random sample. 6:15 p.m. As is customary in recent years, the media is releasing selected exit poll data prior...



Political Crumbs

73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


Two Dakotas, One Voice?

For each of the last 24 presidential elections since 1920, North and South Dakota have voted in unison - casting their ballots for the same nominee. For 21 of these cycles (including each of the last 12 since 1968) Republicans carried the Dakotas with just three cycles going to the Democrats (1932, 1936, and 1964). This streak stands in contrast to the first few decades after statehood when North and South Dakota supported different nominees in four of the first seven cycles. North Dakota narrowly backed Populist James Weaver in 1892 while South Dakota voted for incumbent Republican Benjamin Harrison. In 1896, it was North Dakota backing GOPer William McKinley while South Dakota supported Democrat William Jennings Bryan by less than 200 votes. North Dakota voted Democratic in 1912 and 1916 supporting Woodrow Wilson while South Dakota cast its Electoral College votes for Progressive Teddy Roosevelt and Republican Charles Hughes respectively.


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