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MN US House


What Are the Odds of Incumbents Winning All 8 of Minnesota's U.S. House Races in 2010?

Out of the 32 elections in which each of Minnesota's U.S. Representatives have appeared on the general election ballot, incumbents swept their contests in just 19 instances, or 59 percent of the time

Are Minnesota's U.S. House Seats Safer for Incumbents Today Than in the Past?

In the current census period, 2002-2008, Minnesota's U.S. House incumbents have been reelected at a rate of 93.1 percent, or 27 of 29 contests

How Big is the Incumbency Advantage in Minnesota's U.S. House Races?

425 Minnesota U.S. House incumbents have won their general election matchups, 62 were defeated, and an additional 14 failed to win their party's nomination

Michele Bachmann: History Is On Her Side

For 2-term incumbents, like Congresswoman Bachmann, 88.2 percent have won a third consecutive term, or 75 out of 85 Representatives

Which Lawmaker (and Political Party) Leaves the Biggest Twitter Footprint in Minnesota Politics?

Last month Smart Politics conducted a case study as to how one Minnesota lawmaker, Republican Representative Laura Brod, utilized the social networking site Twitter during the last legislative session. That study found the plurality of Rep. Brod's tweets were about substantive policy issues, with approximately one-sixth about her own personal...

Can the DFL Win a 6th U.S. House Seat in 2010?

As Minnesota faces the real prospect of losing its 8th U.S. House seat in the 2012 reapportionment, the DFL looks to close the current census period with a bang, by returning to its glory days of the 1990s when it controlled 6 of the Gopher State's Congressional districts. One hurdle...

Michele Bachmann Appears on National Cable TV Every 9 Days

With her A-block interview on health care reform on Fox News' Hannity program Tuesday evening, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has now equaled in 7+ months in 2009 the number of national cable television news appearances she made in all of 2008. A Smart Politics analysis of media transcripts dating back...

Oberstar Rails Against Obama on Transportation Policy

Interspersed between his erudite historical recounting of transportation policy over the last 50 years, colorful inside-the-beltway jokes and jabs, and a vision for transportation policy for the next generation, Minnesota DFL Congressman Jim Oberstar offered some particularly harsh language for his party's leader, President Barack Obama, Wednesday afternoon at the...

Minnesota GOP U.S. House Members Notch $800,000 Fundraising Swing Against DFL Colleagues from 2007 to 2009

Riding the momentum of a Democratic tsunami in 2006, Minnesota's crop of five DFL U.S. Representatives posted a monumental fundaising effort through the first two quarters of 2007 - outraising the state's three GOP Representatives by over $750,000. Now, two full quarters after the Democratic tsunami in 2008, the Republicans...

Congressman Oberstar to Speak at Humphrey Institute Wednesday

Minnesota's senior member of its U.S. House delegation, 18-term Representative Jim Oberstar will speak on transportation policy at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs on Wednesday morning. The event is cosponsored by Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, the State and Local Policy...

Economic Downturn Scarcely Slowing Political Contributions to Minnesota's U.S. House Delegation

The economic recession of the past year, and its accompanying significant rise in unemployment, rise in home foreclosures and delinquency rates, and drop in the stock market, has not derailed Minnesota's U.S. House delegation from raising money like the recession never happened. A Smart Politics analysis finds there was a...

Why Campaign Contributions by Homemakers to MN U.S. Representatives Are Not Part of a 'Shell Game'

One of the notable findings from yesterday's Smart Politics research that documented the occupational profile of those individuals giving large donations to the campaigns of Minnesota's U.S. Representatives was that nearly 95 percent of homemakers contributed to the three Republican members of the Gopher State delegation. Such contributions totaled more...

Who Gives? An Occupational Profile of Large Donor Contributions to the MN US House Delegation

Minnesota's eight-member U.S. House delegation raised more than $1.6 million last quarter, according to the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports. Large donor individual donations accounted for about half of that total, or approximately $800,000. So, who are these private citizens pouring nearly $1 million into the campaign war chests...

Bachmann Outraises McCollum in 4th CD; Nearly Outraises Ellison in 5th CD

A Smart Politics analysis of FEC data for the 2nd Quarter of 2009 finds 6th District Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann raised more individual itemized contributions in the home districts of two of her fellow DFL colleagues, and nearly as much money in the home districts of two other DFLers. Representative...

Ellison Raises 90+ Percent of Q2 2009 Large Donor Individual Contributions from Outside 5th CD

In April 2009, Smart Politics reported on Keith Ellison's unusual campaign fundraising numbers that found the 2-term DFL Congressman raising the vast majority of his large donor individual contributions from out of state. That reporting period was not an aberration. The new Federal Election Commission (FEC) data for the second...

Oberstar Raises 100 Percent of Q2 2009 Itemized Individual Contributions from Out of State

Of the many benefits that come with being a Committee Chairman and one of the longest serving members in the U.S. House, is a certain national renown that enables a U.S. Representative to more easily raise campaign funds from out of state. Eighteen-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (MN-08) has perfected...

Bachmann Leads Minnesota House Delegation in Campaign Contributions by Individuals and Small Donors

Last Spring, Smart Politics explained how while the headline coming from the Federal Elections Commission Q1 2009 reports on the fundraising by Minnesota's U.S. House delegation was that Republican Michele Bachmann outraised all of her Gopher State colleagues by nearly $100,000, the story beneath the headline was that Bachmann was...

Bachmann Voting Record Is 2nd Least Supportive of Obama in U.S. House

Last month a Smart Politics analysis of the most conservative members of the U.S. House (as determined by National Journal's annual rankings) found Representative Michele Bachmann to have received the smallest margin of victory of the 44 most conservative Republicans who won reelection in 2008. That blog explained how none...

Minnesota's 'Youthful' U.S. House Delegation

A recent article at CQ Politics profiled the potential competitiveness of Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District race in 2010. That district's Representative, freshman GOPer Erik Paulsen, is one of several dozen new faces elected to D.C. during the past two election cycles. Overall, 114 Representatives, or more than 25 percent of...

Is the Minnesota US House Delegation Voting More Conservatively?

With the DFL winning a string of 9 consecutive presidential elections, 4 out of 5 U.S. Senate contests (counting Al Franken), and netting 35 state House and 11 state Senate seats since 2002, Minnesota has been frequently characterized as an increasingly "Democratic-leaning" state. The outputs of the DFL's electoral success...

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Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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