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Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have...

Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months,...

Party Like It's 1986?

Tim Johnson's retirement opens up an opportunity for Republicans to gain control of both U.S. Senate seats in South Dakota for the first time since the convening of the 100th Congress in January 1987 (Tom Daschle ousted incumbent GOPer James Abdnor in the 1986 election). South Dakota is currently tied...

Familiar Faces

On Wednesday, Paul Ryan's 2012 U.S. House challenger Rob Zerban announced he will seek a rematch in 2014 against the failed GOP VP nominee. Should Zerban win his party's nomination next year, that would mean the Democratic Party will have fielded just five different candidates across the last 10 election...

Bachmann's Low Profile Continues

Four-term Republican Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann continues to keep a relatively low profile now two months into the 113th Congress. The Gopher State's 6th CD U.S. Representative has issued only nine press releases during this span - second lowest in her state delegation ahead of only blue dog Democrat Collin...

"We" Before "I"

In Barack Obama's 2013 State of the Union address, the President only incorporated 56 first-person singular pronouns (e.g. I, I'd, I'll, I'm, I've, me, mine, myself) into his speech, or 0.8 percent of the words he spoke Tuesday evening. That marks the lowest number and percentage across his four addresses...

Bill Burton: Don't Criticize Beyoncé!

During an event at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs Thursday afternoon, former Obama Deputy Press Secretary and Priorities USA senior strategist Bill Burton was asked what he thought of the Beyoncé lip synching scandal at the president's inauguration event. Burton replied, "I will never criticize Beyoncé." He recalled, "I...

Rand Paul Resurrects the Nullifiers

Kentucky GOP U.S. Senator Rand Paul's recent vow that Congress should "nullify anything the president does that smacks of legislation" in his executive orders on gun control brings to mind a minor political party which was founded on perceived federal overreach. The Nullifier Party of the 1830s was a state's...

Army 9, Navy 7?

If Secretary of Defense nominee Chuck Hagel is confirmed by the Senate in the coming weeks, he will be the ninth person to hold that office who served in the U.S. Army - more than any other military branch. Of the 22 different men who have served as Defense Secretary,...

Home State Heroes

Of the 12 newly-elected U.S. Senators to take their seats in the 113th Congress, just four were born in the state they will represent: Republican Jeff Flake of Arizona, Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Democrat Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. Two senator-elects were born...

Longshots At-Large

In addition to facing an electorate prone to split-ticket voting, Montana Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg faced another historical hurdle in his attempt to unseat Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester earlier this month. With Rehberg's loss, just 3 of 18 at-large U.S. House members have ousted incumbents in U.S. Senate...

Dear Bret and Karl

During the marathon election night coverage a statement qualifying Barack Obama's reelection victory was repeatedly mentioned on FOX News. Anchor Bret Baier characterized Obama as the "First president ever to be reelected with fewer electoral votes than the first time." FOX contributor Karl Rove later added: "This is the first...

Could Democrats Gain US Senate Seats with Obama Loss?

Is it possible for Democrats to lose the White House and still gain seats in the U.S. Senate? Possible, but not likely. In the 15 cycles in which the incumbent party has lost the White House since 1860, on only three occasions was that party able to make gains in...

To Flip or Not to Flip?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ electoral votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 presidential elections, and at least one state with 20 or more votes has switched in 35 cycles. Indiana (and its 11 electoral votes) seems assured to flip this November, while...

Close Shaves in MN-06

A new SurveyUSA poll finds Michele Bachmann leading by single digits among likely voters against political novice and hotelier Jim Graves, 50 to 41 percent. Should Bachmann prevail by a similar margin on Election Day, it will continue a tradition for the three-term U.S. Representative. In 2008, Bachmann had the...

With Friends Like These...

Despite dozens of interruptions and multiple smirks and laughs, Joe Biden made a careful point to frequently refer to his vice-presidential debate opponent Paul Ryan as his 'friend.' The former Democratic U.S. Senator called Congressman Ryan his friend 14 times Thursday evening - frequently in the midst of or directly...

Red Ties vs Blue Ties

Wednesday evening's presidential debate was just the second debate this cycle in which Mitt Romney wore a red tie for the proceedings. The former Massachusetts governor wore blue ties for 18 of the 19 Republican presidential primary debates in which he participated. The only other time Romney wore a red...

Gary Johnson's Deepest Fundraising Puddles

Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson finds his campaign struggling not simply to reach the 15 percent threshold in public opinion polls required for him to participate in the televised debates, but even getting listed as a candidate in many of these surveys. Residents in a few states, however, are doing...

David Brooks' About-Face on Mitt Romney

With a New York Times op-ed entitled, "Thurston Howell Romney," David Brooks takes the Republican presidential nominee to task by casting him as the affable, out of touch millionaire character from 1960s Americana. But that is not the tune Brooks was singing coming out of the Republican National Convention. On...

Ann Romney Sets the Mark

At 2,330 words, Ann Romney's speech Tuesday evening was the longest of the 10 prepared remarks delivered by wives of presidential nominees in DNC and RNC history (longest in written form - putting aside delivery/laughter/applause etc.). That eclipses Laura Bush's 2004 speech to the RNC which came in at 2,262...



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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