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Vote R & R in 2012?

With the selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, Mitt Romney's presidential ticket is now just the third in U.S. history in which the last name of a major party's presidential and vice-presidential nominees begins with the same letter. The only other two instances are the Democratic Party tickets...

Rick Nolan, Meet Ernest Lundeen

Rick Nolan's plurality victory in the Minnesota's 8th CD DFL U.S. House primary on Tuesday brings him one step closer to a return to Congress after a 32-year absence. If he wins his general election matchup against one-term incumbent GOP Chip Cravaack, his return would come after a gap in...

Akin Skates with Lowest Vote Tally Since 1928

U.S. Representative Todd Akin's 6.0-point victory over John Brunner in Tuesday's Republican U.S. Senate race in Missouri was the third narrowest GOP primary victory for the office in state history and the lowest percentage for a winning candidate in more than 80 years. Akin won with 36.0 percent of the...

Bachmann July Haul Shy of Q3 2010 Pace

Michele Bachmann made headlines Tuesday by issuing a press release on her campaign site that she raised more than a $1 million from July 1-25 - a period during which she was at the center of a controversy regarding letters she sent to various department heads asking for an investigation...

All Eyes at the Top

A recent SurveyUSA poll of likely Minnesota voters unsurprisingly found a single-digit race on the top of November's ballot (Obama up six points over Romney) and a blow-out just below (Amy Klobchuar up 24 on GOP challenger Kurt Bills). Such has often been the result over the 17 previous election...

The GOP's High Water Mark?

Upper Midwestern Democrats are hoping the large deficits they currently face in state legislatures around the five-state region (IA, MN, ND, SD, WI) do not grow in November's elections. After the 2010 cycle, Republicans enjoyed a 144-88 advantage in state senates across these states (62.1 percent) - their best showing...

Safety First

Although freshman Republican U.S. Representatives Sean Duffy (WI-07) and Reid Ribble (WI-08) are considered vulnerable by many D.C. prognosticators this November, redistricting has not spelled trouble for congressional incumbents in the Badger State over the last six decades. Since 1952, only one of 52 incumbents went down in the general...

Splitting the Electorate

With new polls released this week showing uncertainty at the top of the leader board in the Wisconsin GOP U.S. Senate race, the four-candidate field of Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Jeff Fitzgerald is likely to produce not only a plurality winner next month, but possibly all four...

Climbing the Ladder

When Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley won reelection for a sixth term in November 2010 he and his fellow Iowa U.S. Senator, Democratic Tom Harkin, were 11th on the all-time list for the longest-serving delegation members serving together to the nation's upper legislative chamber. After the first 17+ months of the...

Choices, Choices, Choices

In 2010, a total of 29 candidates ran across Minnesota's eight congressional districts - good for the seventh highest per district average in the history of the state (at 3.63 candidates) across the 78 general cycles dating back to 1857. That number appears to have declined significantly with just 18...

Romney Still Slow off the Blocks

While all eyes were on Wisconsin this week, Mitt Romney turned in more sluggish performances in presidential primaries held on Tuesday. Despite effectively sealing the nomination nearly two months ago, Romney failed to crack the 70 percent mark in two more states: South Dakota (66.0 percent) and Montana (68.4 percent)....

Thaddeus McCotter, Meet Bob Dornan

Michigan Republican Congressman Thaddeus McCotter's filing error, which left him hundreds of valid signatures shy to appear on the Wolverine State's U.S. House primary ballot in August, may spell the end of the five-term congressman's tenure in D.C. If McCotter fails in his recently announced write-in campaign to keep his...

Governor vs. Governor vs. Governor

The last election cycle saw five ex-governors attempt to win back their old jobs, with success stories in California (Jerry Brown), Iowa (Terry Branstad), and Oregon (John Kitzhaber). But in 1904, the State of Wisconsin saw three governors on the general election ballot: two-term Republican incumbent Robert La Follette, former...

A Vote for No One

More than 50,000 North Carolina residents who voted in the Tuesday's Republican presidential primary opted for 'no preference' on their ballot, or 5.2 percent. That marks the second highest percentage of those who have done so in the 40 years of the modern primary era, behind the 9.8 percent who...

Deaths in the Cabinet

It has been 16 years since the last member of a presidential cabinet died in office - the sixth longest stretch in the nation's history. Overall, 15 cabinet members have died in office including three Secretaries of State, two Attorneys General, two Postmasters General, two Secretaries of the Navy, two...

Obama's Home State Muscle

As electoral map gurus put forth their latest projections, here is one tidbit to consider: the major party nominee from the most populous home state has won nearly twice as many presidential elections in U.S. history (32) as the nominee with the smaller home state population (17). (On four occasions...

Now That's a Long Roll Call

With many congressional retirements already announced and more incumbents likely to be unseated this fall, get ready to scratch several dozen new names onto the list of individuals to have served as U.S. Representatives next January. More than 10,700 individuals have served as representatives since 1789, with two states tallying...

Romney Strongest in McCain Country in Wisconsin

Exit polls found Mitt Romney winning over several key demographic groups in his defeat of Rick Santorum in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday, and they can perhaps best be summed up as follows: he dominated in the state's biggest Republican strongholds. John McCain carried 13 of Wisconsin's 72 counties in the...

Will Obama Again Play It Safe with His 2012 Basketball Bracket Picks?

While Barack Obama may be pulling for a Rick Santorum long-shot bid on the Republican side of the presidential ticket, it is unlikely any underdogs will make it on the president's Final Four bracket in the men's college basketball tournament. Obama has played it safe through his first three brackets...

Better to Have Votes Than Friends?

Although he served on Capitol Hill for four years in the U.S. House and 12 years in the U.S. Senate through 2006, Rick Santorum - like his former colleague Newt Gingrich - isn't exactly having a difficult time keeping track of his endorsements from current members of Congress. As of...



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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