The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance and the Graduate and Professional Student Assembly are cosponsoring a series of public forums with the major party candidates for Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District to foster informed and substantive discussion of important matters of public policy. The forums create an opportunity for the candidates to rise above the talking points and fractious back-and-forth of the campaign to address the important policy challenges facing Minnesota and the country. It also creates a forum for students and citizens to listen and raise questions with the candidates. The events are free and open to the public.

Scheduled Forums:

Ashwin Madia (DFL)
“Green Technology, Green Power, and Greenbacks: A Plan to Protect our Environment and our Economy”
Monday, October 13, 2008
Noon - 1:15pm

Erik Paulsen (GOP)
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Noon - 1:15pm

David Dillon (IP)
“The Congressional Role in Creating the Next Long Term Economic Boom”
Friday, October 17, 2008
Noon - 1:15pm

Humphrey Forum
Hubert H. Humphrey Center
301 19th Ave S.,
Minneapolis, MN

Smart Politics will also be live blogging these events.

12:07 p.m. Dean Barkley, founder of the Independence Party, is giving a speech this afternoon at the Humphrey Institute entitled, "The Polarization of Our Political Parties." Barkley has polled as high as 19 percent during this past week in the U.S. Senate matchup against Republican Norm Coleman and DFL-er Al Franken.

12:10 p.m. Barkley says the polarization of the two major parties started after the end of the Vietnam War. Barkley left the Democratic Party after he felt they lost their way in giving into the special interests. Barkley credits Independent presidential candidate John Anderson's 1980 run with the first attempt to unify the middle into a cohesive political movement.

12:15 p.m. In the 1990s in Minnesota, Barkley says Minnesota had two U.S. Senators that represented the extreme left (Paul Wellstone) and right (Rod Grams). Barkley jokes he could use the same campaign materials he used 16 years ago when he ran for Congress (e.g. gridlock, deficit spending), but that he'd "have to add a few more zeros."

12:22 p.m. Barkley says Norm Coleman left the Democratic Party in the 1990s over a single issue (abortion; Coleman is pro-life).

12:25 p.m. Barkley laments how the Taxpayers League has a hold on the Republican Party, and that the dogmatic pledge not to raise taxes Republicans are forced to take may have contributed to the I-35 bridge collapse, as Governor Jesse Ventura had attempted to secure more infrastructure funding that was shot down by the legislature.

12:27 p.m. Barkley says we have sold our political institutions to the highest bidder, and that bribery is illegal everywhere except in politics.

12:29 p.m. "How much child abuse can we inflict on our kids?," poses Barkley, in reference to the amount of deficit spending the United States is incurring.

12:33 p.m. Barkley says there are some good people in the U.S. Senate who are willing to break away from their caucus - there is a Gang of 20 (10 Democrats and 10 Republicans) - who will do what is right for the country on certain issues and vote agains their party's leadership.

12:36 p.m. When asked how he would deal with fixing Social Security, Barkley says he would bring AARP into the conservation ("start talking with the enemy") and asking them what their solution is, as opposed to having them be against everything. In regards to the national debt, Barkley says neither Coleman nor Franken will even touch the issue.

12:40 p.m. Barkley, although he was against the financial bailout legislation in its first incarnation, ultimately supported the second version, to avert greater financial crisis.

12:45 p.m. In terms of trimming the budget, Barkley says he would first look at the defense budget. He says we have too many bases around the world, and, hopefully, we have reached the point where we will stop being the world's policeman.

12:47 p.m. Barkley says he would consider eliminating the Department of Education. He says he does not want Washington D.C. to have its hand in running education in the State of Minnesota. Barkley says he would support vouchers for private institutions, but not religious institutions, as that "crosses the line" between the separation of church and state.

12:52 p.m. Barkley supports simplification of the tax code, whereby the tax rates drop and loopholes are eliminated.

12:56 p.m. Barkley says we were lied to in getting into the Iraq War, but we had a responsibility to "undo the damage we did." Barkley says we have now done enough to give Iraq a chance at being successful, and we should pull out now - in 6 months, a year, or 14 months, whatever the case may be. If the country devolves into chaos, "that's on them," he adds.

1:02 p.m. Barkley says the War in Iraq is the biggest foreign policy error since Vietnam, and that Congress should never pass another War Powers Act - only Congress should be able to send troops to war.

1:06 p.m. Barkley says he "is a Libertarian at heart," and that the Patriot Act went too far, though not by a lot.

1:09 p.m. With regards to how the rules could be change to benefit third party candidacies, Barkley advocates having uniform rules for achieving major party status across the 50 states. He also supports an instant run-off voting system, which would eliminate the 'wasted vote' argument.

1:13 p.m. Barkley says if New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg would have run for president as an independent he would have won. Barkley says he will not caucus with either party if he is elected to the U.S. Senate.

From the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance press release:

“According to two Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute polls of likely Minnesota voters, the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the Vice Presidential debate propelled the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama from a narrow 4 point lead (47 percent to 43 percent) to a 14 point advantage over Senator John McCain (54 percent to 40 percent).

Despite Obama’s lead, the race remains fluid. Twelve percent of likely voters indicate that they may change their minds; among the larger group of 19 percent who are up for grabs, there appears to be receptivity to McCain.

The surveys were conducted of 346 likely voters between September 29, 2008 and October 1, 2008, and 418 likely voters between October 3rd and October 5th. The margin of error is +/-5.3 percentage points and 4.8 points, respectively. For smaller subgroups the margin of sampling error is larger.”

The full report can be found here.

This weekend’s polling numbers by the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll that found Barack Obama up by 18 points over John McCain and Al Franken up by 9 points over Norm Coleman turned many heads in the Gopher State, and received harsh critiques by the right-wing blogosphere (as well as the Coleman campaign).

Fair or unfair, the Star Tribune now possesses a reputation in some circles for being biased in favor of Democratic candidates.

Lefty blog Fivethirtyeight.com doesn’t attribute bias in its pollster rankings, but the popular political blog has named the Star Tribune as one of the least reliable pollsters in the country. The Minnesota Poll is ranked 27th out of 32 organizations across the country in terms of ‘pollster introduced error’ – that is, as the website defines it, “Error that results from poor methodology.”

The truth is, however, that the Minnesota Poll over time has a fairly good track record – at least when comparing its final survey conducted the weekend before the election up against the actual election results.

· In the 2004 presidential contest, the Minnesota Poll had John Kerry leading George W. Bush by 4 points in the Gopher State (October 31 – November 1). Kerry won by 3.5 points.

· In the 2000 presidential election, the Minnesota Poll had Al Gore leading by 5 points over Bush (November 5-6). Gore won by 2.4 points.

· In the 2006 U.S. Senate race, the Minnesota Poll had Amy Klobuchar leading Mark Kennedy by 21 points (November 5-6). Klobuchar won by 20.2 points.

· In the 2002 U.S. Senate race, the Minnesota Poll had Coleman leading by 2 points over Walter Mondale (November 3-4). Coleman won by 2.2 points.

· In the 2000 U.S. Senate race, the Minnesota Poll had Mark Dayton winning by 9 points over Rod Grams (October 31 – November 3). Dayton won by 5.5 points.

· In the 2006 gubernatorial matchup, the Minnesota Poll had Mike Hatch defeating Tim Pawlenty by 3 points (November 5-6). Pawlenty won by 1 point.

· In the 2002 gubernatorial race, the Minnesota Poll had Pawlenty leading by 13 points over Roger Moe (November 3-4). Pawlenty won by 7.9 points. The poll correctly had Tim Penny winning 16 percent of the vote.

That is not to say the Star Tribune’s recent polling results were not a bit eye-opening – the numbers seen by Obama and Franken in the new poll are likely on the outer edge of reality, accounting for the poll's margin of error, as it captures the recent movement to the Democrats seen across the board as the nation’s economic problems intensify.

Although Senator John McCain’s initial introduction of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate was met with criticism even from within conservative and Republican circles, Palin has boosted the enthusiasm of Republicans and is appealing to certain women voters. Smart Politics discovered nuanced reactions by women that defy narrow partisan categories in follow-up conversations with two-dozen Minnesotan women who had been interviewed in mid-August for the Humphrey Institute / Minnesota Public Radio News poll and were initially undecided or planned to vote for a third party candidate. Even among women who plan to vote for Barack Obama, Palin was respected when they were re-interviewed September 11-16. Many of these undecided women resented the media’s treatment of the Alaskan Governor.

Eight of the two-dozen women who were undecided last month now indicate they will vote for the McCain / Palin ticket. Although polls reveal that the Republican ticket is drawing few supporters of Hillary Clinton, one of the newly minted McCain supporters in the Gopher State was a 65-year old woman from Saint Paul who had backed Hillary Clinton in the primaries: “This is really hard for me – I’ve been a Democrat all my life but now I’m voting for McCain.” Another former Clinton-turned-McCain supporter – a 63-year old from Melrose – lamented how Obama “Should have taken Hillary.”

A handful of the women interviewed also had a generally favorable impression of Palin even though they were not backing McCain.

The Palin Appeal:
A 74 year-old woman from Avon viewed Palin as “Very, very appealing,” and “A breath of fresh air.” She said Palin’s vice-presidential candidacy was important because, “The public is finally getting to see what mothers do – they can juggle many things.” A 63-year old woman from Melrose liked how Palin “calls a spade a spade.” And a 59-year old from Elk River described Palin as “very charismatic” and, “a real fighter.”

But Palin has definitely rubbed some women in Minnesota the wrong way: six of the interviewees had an unfavorable impression of the Alaska Governor. (Eight of the two dozen women interviewed planned to vote for the Obama / Biden ticket.)

A few specifically pointed to the Palin selection as the reason for their shift to Obama. A 74-year old woman from Minneapolis confessed she was, “Unfortunately voting for Obama – Palin has no experience and she’s the only reason I’m voting for Obama.” A 59-year old woman from Nevis revealed, “Palin’s selection is what tipped me to Obama. I like McCain. But I question her qualifications as I’ve heard nothing that leads me to believe she is ready to be President of the United States.”

A 77-year old woman from Circle Pines also thought Palin should not be running for vice-president, but for a different reason: “She should be at home with her child who is handicapped and needs her.”

But some new supporters to Obama’s camp liked Palin. For example, a 54-year old woman from Royalton praised Palin for being a “very strong woman,” and a 72-year old Clinton-turned-Obama supporter thought she was “gutsy.”

The Speech:
Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention appeared to jump-start her appeal. Most of women voters that Smart Politics interviewed had seen Palin’s acceptance speech in St. Paul, and most were impressed. For example, a 55-year old woman from Breckinridge thought the speech displayed her “confidence and willingness to stand up for herself.” Other women described the speech as “excellent,” “great,” and “impressive.”

One woman from St. Paul was taken by the ‘maverick’ quality to Palin’s speech, “She cares about what is going on in government. She will vote for what is right, not just vote for her party.” This reaction fits a key element of the McCain campaign strategy.

But not every woman interviewed liked Palin’s speech. A new Obama supporter said she “doesn’t like Palin’s personality. I’m sarcastic, but she is way overboard.” One McCain supporter from Hutchinson admitted that Palin’s speech was “too anti-Democratic.”

The Bush Turnoff:
Nearly all women interviewed (22 of 24) disapproved of President George W. Bush’s handling of his job in the White House. Many women volunteered that they “strongly” and “heartily” disapproved, while another describe what Bush has done to the country as “Criminal.”

No woman interviewed for this survey (which included several self-identified Republicans) approved of Bush’s job performance; the two who did not disapprove 2 gave him “mixed” reviews.

Mad at the Media:
Regardless of which candidate these undecided voters planned to support, most were disgusted with the media coverage of Palin’s selection. A 67-year old woman from Cambridge concluded that “the media are after her and I hate to see that – it makes it so difficult.” Another woman from St. Paul said the media had treated Palin harshly and was “definitely prejudiced because she is a woman: ‘How is she going to run for Vice-President if she has a family?’ As if a woman should be the only one controlling the family.”

A still undecided 55-year old female voter agreed that there was “too much focus on her family and I don’t think they would do this if she were a man.” A former Clinton supporter concurred, “The media are as sexist with Palin as they were with Hillary.”

Several Obama supporters were also troubled by the media coverage of Palin, especially with respect to the attention to her personal life, family, and daughter’s pregnancy. A 53-year old woman from Buffalo thought the media was “sensationalistic” and “needs to focus on her political views.” An Obama supporter from Rochester remarked, “They’ve gone off the deep end. The media should show more restraint and wisdom and not so much sensationalism.” Another Obama supporter who had an unfavorable view of Palin complained that “I don’t like to see them go after the kids. OK – so the daughter is pregnant. I’m 74 years old and it was happening in my day too! Although not with me – I had four older brothers who made sure that didn’t happen.”

One woman who supported Obama in the primaries, and is now supporting McCain, criticized the media for “putting her down and trying to make her look like she’s not good enough. But she is good enough.”

Dean Barkey’s numbers continue to rise in the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, according to a new SurveyUSA poll of 725 likely voters in the Gopher State (conducted September 30 – October 1).

In the new survey, Republican Norm Coleman leads DFL-er Al Franken by a 43 to 33 percent margin, with Barkley in third at 19 percent. Back in June, in the three-way matchup poll by SurveyUSA, Barkley polled at 8 percent and three weeks ago came in at 14 percent.

No candidate has eclipsed the 50 percent mark in this three-way race – nor is likely to do so on Election Day in this competitive contest.

Like the poll in mid-September, Barkley continues to win the support of 10 percent of Republican voters. But what has changed from three weeks ago, however, is that Barkley has now almost doubled the percentage of Democrats he has pried away from Franken: Barkley’s numbers have increased from 11 percent to 19 percent among Democrats, while Franken now holds just 65 percent of voters from his own party, down from 76 percent three weeks ago. This is particularly frustrating to the Franken campaign as more Gopher State voters identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans in the current political environment (37 percent to 30 percent in the SurveyUSA poll).

Barkley is also doing particularly well with voters over 65 (27 percent) and those making less than $50,000 per year (24 percent).

Barkley will be speaking at the first 2008 Candidate Forum at the Humphrey Institute next Wednesday, October 8th. Barkley’s talk is entitled, “The Polarization of Our Political Parties.”

2008 Candidate Forums: U.S. Senate
Cowles Auditorium, Humphrey Institute
Dean Barkley - The Polarization of our Political Parties
Independence Party Candidate, U.S. Senate
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Noon - 1:15pm

The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance is hosting a series of public forums with the major party candidates for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat to foster informed and substantive discussion of important matters of public policy. The forums create an opportunity for the candidates to rise above the talking points and fractious back-and-forth of the campaign to address the important policy challenges facing Minnesota and the country. It also creates a forum for students and citizens to listen and raise questions with the candidates. The events are free and open to the public.

Update: Here is the link to the poll's crosstabs.