Smart Politics - Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs

It's the Snowball Fights: Minnesota Has Lowest Rate of Overweight Children in America

While Minnesota recently lost its #1 ranking to Wisconsin for the state with the best quality of health care nationwide, a new study released Tuesday by the Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation reveals the Gopher State to have the lowest percentage of overweight and obese children in the country.

The study found the average statewide rate of obese and overweight children to be at 31.0 percent nationwide; Minnesota, at 23.1 percent, was the healthiest state (along with Utah) with just shy of one-quarter of its children ages 10 through 17 determined to be obsese or overweight.

The study defined children as obese if their body mass index was at or above the 95th percentile for their age; a child with a body mass index above the 85th percentile was considered overweight.

The new study generally supports a recent analysis conducted by the Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative. That organization's 2007 National Survey of Children's Health found Minnesota to have tied for the 3rd lowest child obesity rate in the country at 11 percent (that study did not report data on overweight children).

Whether it is diet, exercise, or general hearty living while enduring the state's cold winters, Minnesota has achieved this top ranking in the nation despite lacking many statewide initiatives that have been implemented across the country to combat childhood obesity.

For example, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, Minnesota is not among the 31 states nationwide that have implemented a systematic policy approach to address childhood obesity (e.g. in its physical education or school lunch programs). Kaiser also finds that Minnesota is not among the 15 states that have formed a task force or committee to confront childhood obesity. Nor does the Gopher State mandate body mass index screening or require menu labeling in restaurants as has been legislated in a handful of states.

Overall, Upper Midwestern states were ranked among the best in the nation for the lowest rate of overweight and obese children. Minnesota led the way at #50, followed by North Dakota at #45 (25.7 percent), Iowa at #44 (26.5 percent), Wisconsin at #40 (27.9 percent), and South Dakota at #38 (28.4 percent).

Southern states, particularly in the Deep South, had by far the highest rate of overweight and obese children: Mississippi (44.4 percent), Arkansas (37.5 percent), Georgia (37.3 percent), Kentucky (37.1 percent), Tennessee (36.5 percent), Alabama (36.1 percent), and Louisiana (35.9 percent) had the worst ratings.

Rate of Overweight and Obese Children by State

Rank	State	Percent
1	Mississippi	44.4
2	Arkansas	37.5
3	Georgia	37.3
4	Kentucky	37.1
5	Tennessee	36.5
6	Alabama	36.1
7	Louisiana	35.9
8	West Virginia	35.5
9	District of Columbia	35.4
10	Illinois	34.9
11	Nevada	34.2
12	Alaska	33.9
13	South Carolina	33.7
14	North Carolina	33.5
15	Ohio	33.3
16	Delaware	33.2
17	Florida	33.1
18	New York	32.9
19	New Mexico	32.7
20	Texas	32.2
21	Nebraska	31.5
22	Kansas	31.1
23	Missouri	31.0
23	New Jersey	31.0
23	Virginia	31.0
26	Arizona	30.6
26	Michigan	30.6
28	California	30.5
29	Rhode Island	30.1
30	Massachusetts	30.0
31	Indiana	29.9
32	Pennsylvania	29.7
33	Oklahoma	29.5
33	Washington	29.5
35	New Hampshire	29.4
36	Maryland	28.8
37	Hawaii	28.5
38	South Dakota	28.4
39	Maine	28.2
40	Wisconsin	27.9
41	Idaho	27.5
42	Colorado	27.2
43	Vermont	26.7
44	Iowa	26.5
45	Connecticut	25.7
45	North Dakota	25.7
45	Wyoming	25.7
48	Montana	25.6
49	Oregon	24.3
50	Utah	23.1
50	Minnesota	23.1

Source: Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Rankings are based on the National Survey of Children's Health, a phone survey of parents with children ages 10-17 conducted in 2007 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Despite Minnesota's best-in-the-nation rating for children, the news was good, but not great, regarding the state's ranking for the obesity rate of adults.

Minnesota ranked 31st in the nation for the highest adult obesity rate, as calculated by a body mass index of 30 or higher. Just over a quarter of Minnesota adults were found to be obese (25.3 percent).

That was good enough for best in the Upper Midwest, however, ahead of Wisconsin (#26, 26.0 percent), Iowa and North Dakota (tied for #22, 26.7 percent), and South Dakota (#20, 26.9 percent).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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MN Election 2008 Minnesota Third Parties

Putting a Bow on the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate Contest (A Historical Analysis)

With Governor Tim Pawlenty and Secretary of State Mark Ritchie signing the election certificate for the U.S. Senate seat on Tuesday evening, the 2008 Election is, after a 238-day wait, at last in the books.

The 2008 U.S. Senate Election is noteworthy, of course, for its historic narrow margin of victory and for setting a Gopher State record for the longest period with only one U.S. Senator.

But there are other interesting statistical findings from the election-that-would-never-end.

First, the 42.0 percent of the vote won by Al Franken marks the second lowest percentage tallied by a winner in a Minnesota U.S. Senate race out of the 37 general and special elections held since popular vote elections were introduced in the Gopher State in 1912.

Only Republican Thomas D. Schall, with 37.6 percent of the vote won during his successful 1930 reelection campaign, has headed to the nation's capitol with a lower percentage of the statewide vote.

Since the DFL merger in 1944, the previous low-water mark for a winning candidate was the 48.8 percent won by Mark Dayton in 2000 in his defeat of 1-term GOP incumbent Rod Grams.

Overall, 11 of Minnesota's 37 Senate races have been won by just a plurality of the vote, although only 4 since the DFL merger: 1916 (Frank B. Kellogg), 1922 (Henrik Shipstead), 1924 (Thomas D. Schall), 1930 (Schall), 1934 (Shipstead), 1936 (Guy V. Howard, in a special election), 1942 (Jospeh H. Ball), 1994 (Rod Grams), 2000 (Mark Dayton), 2002 (Coleman), and 2008 (Franken).

Largest Percentage of the Vote Received by Victorious Minnesota U.S. Senate Candidates, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1976	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	67.5
2	1928	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	65.4
3	1912	Knute Nelson	Republican	62.8
4	1936	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	62.2
5	1978*	Dave Durenberger	Republican	61.5
6	1964	Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	60.3
7	1918	Knute Nelson	Republican	60.0
8	1948	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	59.8
9	1946	Edward J. Thye	Republican	58.9
10	2006	Amy Klobuchar	DFL	58.1
10	1984	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	58.1
12	1970	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	57.8
13	1960	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	57.5
13	1923*	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	57.5
15	1972	Walter F. Mondale	DFL	56.7
16	1978	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	56.6
16	1952	Edward J. Thye	Republican	56.6
18	1954	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	56.4
19	1988	Dave Durenberger	Republican	56.2
20	1942*	Arthur E. Nelson	Republican	56.1
21	1966	Walter F. Mondale	DFL	53.9
22	1940	Henrik Shipstead	Republican	53.0
23	1958	Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	52.9
24	1982	Dave Durgenberger	Republican	52.6
25	1990	Paul Wellstone	DFL	50.4
26	1996	Paul Wellstone	DFL	50.3
27	1934	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	49.9
28	2002	Norm Coleman	Republican	49.5
29	1994	Rod Grams	Republican	49.1
30	2000	Mark Dayton	DFL	48.8
31	1916	Frank B. Kellogg	Republican	48.6
32	1922	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	47.1
33	1942	Joseph H. Ball	Republican	47.0
34	1924	Thomas D. Schall	Republican	46.5
35	1936*	Guy V. Howard	Republican	42.9
36	2008	Al Franken	DFL	42.0
37	1930	Thomas D. Schall	Republican	37.6

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

However, despite Franken's historically low vote percentage, there have been a dozen U.S. Senate candidates in Minnesota who have won a larger percentage of the vote than Norm Coleman, and still lost their respective contest.

Coleman's 42.0 percent of the vote ranks as the 13th highest second place finish in Gopher State history, out of 37 elections conducted since 1912.

Republican Rudy Boschwitz, in his failed 1990 reelection campaign against Paul Wellstone, has the distinction of winning the largest percentage of the vote for a second place candidate (47.8 percent).

In fact, several other second place finishers during the past few decades have earned a larger percentage of the vote than Coleman, such as Walter Mondale in 2002 (47.3 percent), Mark Dayton in 1982 (46.6 percent), Ann Wynia in 1994 (44.1 percent), and Rod Grams in 2000 (43.3 percent).

In other words, while the closeness of the 2008 election made the loss more difficult to swallow for Coleman supporters, there were, proportionally, more disappointed voters in several other Senate contests in Minnesota history.

Largest Percentage of the Vote Received by 2nd Place Candidates in Minnesota U.S. Senate Elections, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1990	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	47.8
2	2002	Walter Mondale	DFL	47.3
3	1982	Mark Dayton	DFL	46.6
3	1958	Edward J. Thye	Republican	46.6
5	1924	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	45.5
6	1966	Robert A. Forsythe	Republican	45.2
7	1994	Ann Wynia	DFL	44.1
8	2000	Rod Grams	Republican	43.3
9	1972	Phil Hansen	Republican	42.9
10	1952	William E. Carlson	DFL	42.5
11	1960	P. Kenneth Peterson	Republican	42.2
12	1954	Val Bjornson	Republican	42.1
13	2008	Norm Coleman	Republican	42.0
14	1970	Clark MacGregor	Republican	41.6
15	1996	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	41.3
15	1984	Joan Anderson Growe	DFL	41.3
17	1988	Hubert H. Humphrey II	DFL	40.9
18	1978	Wendell Anderson	DFL	40.4
19	1918	Willis G. Calderwood	National	40.0
20	1948	Joseph H. Ball	Republican	39.8
20	1946	Theodore Jorgensen	DFL	39.8
22	1964	Wheelock Whitney	Republican	39.3
23	1923*	Jacob Aall Ottesen Preus	Republican	38.7
24	2006	Mark Kennedy	Republican	37.9
25	1936	Theodore Christianson	Republican	37.8
26	1912	Daniel William Lawler	Democrat	37.2
27	1930	Einar Hoidale	Democrat	36.1
28	1922	Frank B. Kellogg	Republican	35.0
29	1978*	Bob Short	DFL	34.6
30	1928	Arthur E. Nelson	Republican	33.7
31	1916	Daniel W. Lawler	Democrat	30.8
32	1934	Einar Hoidale	Democrat	29.2
33	1936*	N.J. Holmberg	Independent	28.4
34	1942	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	28.2
35	1942*	Al Hansen	Farmer-Labor	26.7
36	1940	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	25.7
37	1976	Jerry Brekke	Republican	25.0

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Of course, the performance of Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley had a major impact on the 2008 Senate election.

Barkley's 15.2 percent is the largest percentage a third-party candidate has received in a Gopher State Senatorial contest since the DFL merger in 1944. In fact, it more than doubles the previous post-merger record (Barkley's 7.0 percent on the Reform ticket in 1996).

Overall, however, Barkley's performance is just the 15th best from a third-party candidate in Minnesota Senate elections. In addition to 10 Farmer-Laborite candidacies, Barkley's 2008 mark was bested by Willis G. Calderwood twice (40.0 percent in 1918 on the National ticket, and 20.6 percent in 1916 on the Prohibition ticket), Independent candidate N.J. Holmberg in 1936 (28.4 percent), and Independent Progressive candidate Andrew O. Devold in 1936 (20.0 percent).

In total, 31 third-party candidates have earned at least 1 percent of the vote in Minnesota U.S. Senate elections since 1912.

Largest Third-Party Vote Percentage in Minnesota U.S. Senate Elections, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1928	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	65.4
2	1936	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	62.2
3	1923*	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	57.5
4	1934	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	49.9
5	1922	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	47.1
6	1924	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	45.5
7	1918	Willis G. Calderwood	National	40.0
8	1936*	N. J. Holmberg	Independent	28.4
9	1942	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	28.2
10	1942*	Al Hansen	Farmer-Labor	26.7
11	1940	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	25.7
12	1930	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	22.9
13	1916	Willis G. Calderwood	Prohibition	20.6
14	1936*	Andrew O. Devold	Independent Progressive	20.0
15	2008	Dean Barkley	Independence	15.2
16	1942	Martin A. Nelson	Independent	14.4
17	1936*	John G. Alexander	Independent	8.7
18	1996	Dean Barkley	Reform	7.0
19	1976	Paul Helm	American	6.6
20	2000	James Gibson	Independence	5.8
21	1994	Dean Barkley	Independence	5.4
22	2006	Robert Fitzgerald	Independence	3.2
23	1978*	Paul Helm	American	2.9
24	1930	Charles A. Lund	Independent	2.6
25	1988	Polly Mann	Progressive Issues	2.1
26	2002	Jim Moore	Independence	2.0
27	1990	Russell B. Bentley	Grassroots	1.7
28	1978	Sal Carlone	American	1.5
29	1946	Grace Carlson	Revolutionary Workers Party	1.3
30	1954	Francis Patrick Ryan	Liberal Independent	1.1
31	1924	Merle Birmingham	Beer-Wine Independent	1.0

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:21 AM ¤

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MN Election 2008 Minnesota

Norm Coleman Ends 2008 Election Legal Fight

Speaking outside his house in St. Paul on Tuesday afternoon, former Republican Senator Norm Coleman congratulated DFLer Al Franken as the new Senator from the Gopher State. Earlier this afternoon the Minnesota Supreme Court decided Franken was "entitled" to a certificate as the winner of the November election.

Coleman also cited his appreciation for the work of DFL Senator Amy Klobuchar for working double-duty as Minnesota's lone senator throughout 2009, calling the now senior Senator from the Gopher State as an "extraordinary public servant."

Klobuchar remains extremely popular in Minnesota, with an approval rating of 62 percent in a mid-June SurveyUSA poll. Coleman added, "The good news for Al Franken is that he has Amy Klobuchar by his side."

Coleman would not acknowledge that Franken received more legally-cast ballots in the race, stating simply that the Minnesota Supreme Court has ruled on that issue.

Coleman stated he would not address his future plans, leaving that "to another day." The former Senator later added that he expects to make some announcement on his future plans shortly after July 4th.

Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 03:05 PM ¤

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Energy Environment U.S. House

Who Defected on the US House Climate Change Legislation?

The U.S. House of Representative's 219-212 vote last week in favor of the American Clean Energy and Security Act (HR 2454) passed in part due to the defection of a handful of Republicans, while more than half of the Blue Dog Democratic coalition voted in opposition to the bill.

Eight Republicans in total voted for the climate change legislation - seven of which hail from districts carried by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race, by an average of 11.7 points.

GOP Defectors in Support of Climate Change Bill HR 2454

District	Representative	CD MoV	Pres. MoV
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	14.8	5 (Obama)
DE-AL	Michael Castle	23.1	25 (Obama)
IL-10	Mark Kirk	9.0	23 (Obama)
NJ-02	Frank LoBiondo	20.2	9 (Obama)
NJ-04	Chris Smith	33.9	5 (McCain)
NJ-07	Leonard Lance	9.2	1 (Obama)
NY-23	John McHugh	30.6	5 (Obama)
WA-08	David Reichert	5.6	14 (Obama)

Forty-four Democrats voted against the measure (along with 168 Republicans), including 29 Blue Dog Democrats. Among those Blue Dogs voting 'no' were At-large Representatives Stephanie Herseth Sandlin from South Dakota and Earl Pomeroy from North Dakota.

While a majority of the Blue Dogs voted against the legislation, 23 representatives in the 52-member coalition supported it, including Minnesota's Collin Peterson (MN-07) and Iowa's Leonard Boswell (IA-03). The entire Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin congressional delegations voted along party lines.

Nearly twice as many Democrats who voted against the climate change bill represent districts carried by John McCain in 2008 presidential election (29) than those who represent districts carried by Obama (15). McCain carried these 29 districts by an average of 15.3 points.

Seven of the Democratic defectors won pick-up seats in the 2008 Election, and five of these are also Blue Dogs - Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Walt Minnick (ID-01), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), and Glenn Nye (VA-02).

Some Democratic opposition to the climate change legislation did come from the more liberal wing of the Party in the House, such as Peter Visclosky (IN-01) and Dennis Kucinich (OH-10). Kucinich argued that the bill did not go far enough - setting weak targets, giving record subsidies to the coal industry, and building an overarching framework for failure.

Democratic Defectors in Opposition to Climate Change Bill HR 2454

District	Representative	Blue Dog	CD MoV	Pres. MoV
AL-02	Bobby Bright	Yes	0.6	26 (McCain)
AL-05	Parker Griffith	Yes	3.0	23 (McCain)
AL-07	Artur Davis		100.0	42 (Obama)
AR-01	Marion Berry	Yes	100.0	21 (McCain)
AR-04	Mike Ross	Yes	72.6	19 (McCain)
AZ-01	Ann Kirkpatrick		16.2	10 (McCain)
AZ-05	Harry Mitchell	Yes	9.6	5 (McCain)
CA-13	Pete Stark		52.6	51 (Obama)
CA-20	Jim Costa	Yes	48.0	21 (Obama)
CO-03	John Salazar	Yes	22.8	2 (McCain)
GA-08	Jim Marshall	Yes	14.4	13 (McCain)
GA-12	John Barrow	Yes	32.0	9 (Obama)
ID-01	Walt Minnick	Yes	1.6	26 (McCain)
IL-12	Jerry Costello		46.9	13 (Obama)
IL-14	Bill Foster		14.8	11 (Obama)
IN-01	Peter Visclosky		43.7	25 (Obama)
IN-02	Joe Donnelly	Yes	36.9	9 (Obama)
IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	Yes	30.6	4 (McCain)
LA-03	Charlie Melancon	Yes	100.0	24 (McCain)
MS-01	Travis Childers	Yes	10.4	25 (McCain)
MS-04	Gene Taylor	Yes	49.2	35 (McCain)
NC-07	Mike McIntyre	Yes	37.6	5 (McCain)
NC-08	Larry Kissell		10.8	5 (Obama)
ND-AL	Earl Pomeroy	Yes	24.0	8 (McCain)
NY-24	Michael Arcuri	Yes	2.8	2 (Obama)
NY-29	Eric Massa		1.8	2 (McCain)
OH-06	Charles Wilson	Yes	29.5	2 (McCain)
OH-10	Dennis Kucinich		17.4	20 (Obama)
OK-02	Dan Boren	Yes	41.0	32 (McCain)
OR-04	Peter DeFazio		69.4	11 (Obama)
PA-03	Kathy Dahlkemper	Yes	3.0	0 (McCain)
PA-04	Jason Altmire	Yes	12.0	11 (McCain)
PA-10	Christopher Carney	Yes	12.8	9 (McCain)
PA-17	Tim Holden	Yes	27.6	3 (McCain)
SD-AL	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	Yes	35.2	8 (McCain)
TN-04	Lincoln Davis	Yes	21.0	30 (McCain)
TN-08	John Tanner	Yes	100.0	13 (McCain)
TX-17	Chet Edwards		3.1	35 (McCain)
TX-23	Ciro Rodriguez		13.9	3 (Obama)
TX-27	Solomon Ortiz		19.5	7 (Obama)
UT-02	Jim Matheson	Yes	28.4	18 (McCain)
VA-02	Glenn Nye	Yes	4.9	2 (Obama)
WV-01	Alan Mollohan		100.0	11 (McCain)
WV-03	Nick Rahall		34.0	14 (McCain)

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 10:08 PM ¤

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Health Iowa Minnesota South Dakota Wisconsin

Wisconsin Overtakes Minnesota as #1 State in Health Care Quality Rankings

The newly released 2008 state rankings by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Service's Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (AHRQ) finds the State of Wisconsin has passed Minnesota for overall health care quality in the United States.

Minnesota, ranked #2 in 2008, was the top state in the country in 2007. Wisconsin had also been #1 in 2006.

The rankings are based on data cultivated from 30+ sources, such as government surveys, health care facilities, and health care organizations.

AHRQ examines health care quality measures across three large dimensions:

1) Type of care (preventive, acute, and chronic care),
2) Setting of care (hospitals, ambulatory, nursing homes, and home health care)
3) Clinical areas (cancer, diabetes, heart disease, maternal and child health, and respiratory disease).

Overall, the Upper Midwestern states boasted some of the best scores in the country with all of Minnesota's neighboring states landing in the Top 10: Wisconsin at #1, Minnesota at #2, North Dakota at #8, South Dakota at #9, and Iowa at #10.

However, aside from Wisconsin, all of the other Upper Midwestern states slipped in the rankings from the previous year:

· Minnesota fell from #1 to #2
· North Dakota fell from #3 to #8
· Iowa fell from #4 to #10
· South Dakota fell from #7 to #9

Minnesota received a "strong" rating in the areas of preventative care, acute care, hospital care, nursing home care, ambulatory care, and in the clinical areas of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, and respiratory diseases. Performance is based on a relative scale in comparison to all states reporting such data.

The Gopher State only received an "average" ranking in chronic care and maternal and child health measures, and was considered "very weak" in the area of home health care (again, vis-à-vis the other 50 states and the District of Columbia).

The State of New York enjoyed the biggest jump in the rankings, improving from 42nd in 2007 to 28th in 2008 - a 14-state bump. Georgia (+10, 50th to 40th), Missouri (+9, 34th to 25th), Virginia (+7, 28th to 21st), and Massachusetts (+7, 10th to 3rd) also had notable improvements.

Wyoming, on the other side of the coin, saw their state ranking fall 16 slots, from 19th to 35th among the states. New Mexico (-11, 36th to 47th), Utah (-7, 11th to 18th) and Indiana (-7, 35th to 42nd) also endured a significant downgrading of their health care systems relative to the rest of the country.

AHRQ Health Care Quality Rankings by State, 2008

2008 Rank	2007 Rank	State	2008	2007	Change
1	2	WI	69.20	66.04	3.16
2	1	MN	65.38	66.96	-1.58
3	10	MA	63.91	60.65	3.26
4	9	NH	63.51	60.75	2.76
5	6	MI	63.18	61.47	1.71
6	8	RI	62.50	61.21	1.29
7	5	NE	61.84	62.26	-0.42
8	3	ND	61.36	64.02	-2.66
9	7	SD	59.77	61.39	-1.62
10	4	IA	59.57	62.39	-2.82
11	16	NJ	58.75	56.70	2.05
12	14	ME	58.24	57.83	0.41
13	13	CT	58.04	58.06	-0.02
14	15	VT	57.77	57.62	0.15
15	12	MT	55.98	58.13	-2.15
16	18	CO	55.51	55.79	-0.28
17	17	HI	52.23	56.52	-4.29
18	11	UT	52.23	59.72	-7.49
19	20	DE	52.20	53.70	-1.50
20	23	WA	52.16	50.43	1.73
21	28	VA	49.47	46.25	3.22
22	21	AK	49.38	50.68	-1.30
23	24	CA	48.74	50.00	-1.26
24	22	ID	48.33	50.61	-2.28
25	34	MO	48.31	41.81	6.50
26	30	NC	47.90	44.64	3.26
27	27	PA	47.85	46.28	1.57
28	42	NY	47.06	38.84	8.22
29	31	SC	46.93	43.93	3.00
30	26	OR	46.58	49.07	-2.49
31	25	KS	44.30	50.00	-5.70
32	33	WV	43.28	41.96	1.32
33	29	AZ	43.22	46.05	-2.83
34	40	AL	42.55	40.12	2.43
35	19	WY	42.17	53.85	-11.68
36	32	MD	40.99	42.11	-1.12
37	38	OH	40.78	40.48	0.30
38	37	IL	39.64	40.74	-1.10
39	41	FL	38.56	38.93	-0.37
40	50	GA	38.24	27.36	10.88
41	39	OK	38.03	40.23	-2.20
42	35	IN	37.98	40.82	-2.84
43	46	TN	36.44	34.84	1.60
44	45	TX	36.36	35.10	1.26
45	47	DC	35.62	33.33	2.29
46	43	KY	35.47	36.36	-0.89
47	36	NM	35.00	40.76	-5.76
48	49	AR	34.87	27.98	6.89
49	44	NV	33.61	35.53	-1.92
50	48	MS	30.00	29.63	0.37
51	51	LA	26.06	18.97	7.09

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Service's Agency for Health Care Research and Quality. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 03:04 PM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Why Doesn't Amy Klobuchar Run for Governor?

Despite overwhelming success in federal and state elections during the past few decades, the DFL may have missed its best chances (in 1998, 2006) to win a gubernatorial election in the Gopher State.

Excluding gubernatorial contests, the DFL has won 72 percent of statewide elections (21 of 29) since the Election of 1986, when the DFL last won a governor's race with Rudy Perpich. During that span, the DFL has also won 66 percent of US House races (58 of 88), 62 percent of state Senate contests (261 of 424), and 54 percent of state House races (813 of 1,502).

With Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty's announcement that he would not seek a third term, the floodgates have opened for both former and current city (R.T. Rybak, Chris Coleman), county (Susan Gaertner), state (Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, John Marty, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Paul Thissen, Marty Siefert, Laura Brod, Bill Hass, David Hann, Paul Koering, Paul Kohls), and federal (Mark Dayton) DFL and GOP officeholders to explore or outright announce their gubernatorial candidacies.

But there is one officeholder who would certainly "clear the field" of candidates on the DFL side of the ticket, and that is U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar. Although Norm Coleman's name has been (all too casually) tossed about as a potential GOP candidate, there have been few public efforts to "recruit Amy" by DFLers.

Statewide, Klobuchar is the most popular DFL officeholder the party has produced in decades. The Senator's approval rating is one of the highest in the US Senate - and also one of the most consistent. A Smart Politics analysis of SurveyUSA data finds Klobuchar's approval rating has hovered between 58 and 63 percent in 21 straight polls dating back to July 2007.

During that span the approval ratings of some of her neighboring Senators have fluctuated wildly:

· This year Wisconsin senior Senator Herb Kohl saw his approval rating drop from 64 percent (in January) to 50 percent (in March) during the state's economic crisis.

· Wisconsin junior Senator Russ Feingold's approval rating dipped to as low as 48 percent in September 2008, before rebounding to 61 percent in January 2009, and then falling in May back to 53 percent.

· Iowa senior Senator Charles Grassley has seen his 71 percent approval rating in February dip to 58 percent in May, due in part to some controversial comments.

· Iowa junior Senator Tom Harkin saw his 63 percent approval rating he received one month after getting elected in November 2008 drop to 51 percent in April 2009.

So, why doesn't Klobuchar make a run at what would appear to be a clear path to the Governor's mansion?

First of all, it is quite likely that Klobuchar (her double-duty constituency caseload aside) enjoys her work at the nation's Capitol. The Senator has smartly not used her 2006 landslide victory to pursue an extremely liberal agenda, which has perhaps contributed to her sustained appeal among moderates and liberal Republicans (National Journal rated Klobuchar as the 37th most liberal and 60th most conservative Senator in 2008).

Secondly, it might seem a bit politically unseemly for Klobuchar to run for governor without having first completed the 6-year term to which she was elected. At the moment, given the unresolved 2008 U.S. Senate contest, Klobuchar is also in many ways 'trapped' in her D.C. job. To announce her candidacy for governor at a time when the Gopher State needs her the most in Washington (having only one Senator on the payroll), would not be politically prudent.

The problem for Klobuchar, should she ever have such ambitions to run for governor, is that the election for her U.S. Senate seat does not coincide with a gubernatorial election until 2018.

The general rule of thumb is that most politicians want to join the most exclusive club to which they can receive membership. This is why Vice-President Joe Biden (1 of 1) and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (1 of 15) chose to become members of President Barack Obama's Cabinet rather than remain in the Senate (1 of 100). The Governor's Club (1 of 50), while not as exclusive, is still twice as exclusive as being a U.S. Senator.

And while Klobuchar has already achieved one previously unprecented accomplishment in the Gopher State - the first female elected U.S. Senator - it is not unfathomable that she has also thought about another first: becoming MInnesota's first female governor (let alone the first major party female gubernatorial candidate).

But for now, and perhaps for quite some time, all is quiet on the eastern front, and "RecruitAmy.com" domain names remain readily available.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:21 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Is New GOP House Minority Leader Kurt Zellers Politically Vulnerable?

The Minnesota House Republican's selection of Kurt Zellers (32B-Maple Grove) as their new Minority Leader may not be unusual in terms of the 4-term legislator's political ideology (conservative) or policy positions (pro tax cuts and fiscal responsibility), but it is unusual within the context of his electoral track record and potential political vulnerability.

The previous caucus leaders selected by House Republicans during the last two decades (Steve Sviggum, Tim Pawlenty, Erik Paulsen, Marty Seifert) have all represented very safe districts, with each representative winning by large double-digit margins during their reelection campaigns.

Unlike his predecessors, however, Zellers has not enjoyed particularly comfortable margins of victory during his three (successful) campaigns to defend his northwest metro area seat. (Zellers first won the district in a special election on February 25, 2003 to fill Republican Rich Stanek's vacated seat).

· In 2004, Zellers defeated DFLer John Olson by 12.7 points, winning 53.0 percent of the vote in a race in which Independence Party candidate Terry Brennan received 6.6 percent.

· In 2006, Zellers narrowly won a third term, earning a plurality 48.5 percent of the vote in a 2.2-point victory over DFLer Lee Carlson. IP candidate Brennan received 5.1 percent of the vote in his second run at Zellers' seat. Governor Tim Pawlenty carried District 32B by 16.4 points that year, with Zellers underperforming down the ballot vis-à-vis Pawlenty's margin of victory by 14.2 points.

· In 2008, Zellers won another competitive race in his rematch against Carlson - this time by a 6.3-point margin. Norm Coleman won Zeller's district by 12.7 points - more than double the margin secured by Zellers. (Zellers did outperform John McCain, however).

The contrast between Zellers' 6.3-point win in 2008 prior to becoming Minority Leader and the margin of victories won by Sviggum, Pawlenty, Paulsen, and Seifert in the elections leading up to their securing caucus leadership positions is actually quite stark:

· In 1992, Sviggum won his 28B district race by 21.4 points, winning 60.7 percent of the vote before becoming Minority Leader in 1993.

· In 1999, Pawlenty became Majority Leader after winning his District 38B contest in 1998 with 68.1 percent of the vote - cruising to a 36.3-point victory.

· In 2002, Paulsen won his 42B race by 44.0 points, carrying 72.0 percent of the vote. Paulsen became Majority Leader in 2003.

· In 2006, Seifert won his 21A contest by 21.5 points, winning 60.7 percent of the vote and becoming Minority Leader in 2007.

Margin of Victory for Minnesota House GOP Caucus Leaders Prior to Earning Leadership Position, 1992-2008

Year	Leader	Position	District	Percent	MoV
1992	Steve Sviggum	Minority Leader	28B	60.7	21.4
1998	Tim Pawlenty	Majority Leader	38B	68.1	36.3
2002	Erik Paulsen	Majority Leader	42B	72.0	44.0
2006	Marty Seifert	Minority Leader	21A	60.7	21.5
2008	Kurt Zellers	Minority Leader	32B	53.1	6.3

These large margin of victories for Zellers' predecessors are not aberrations - the Representatives had a long track record of blow-out elections:

· Sviggum won his 8 races from 1992 through 2006 by an average margin of 42.4 points.

· Pawlenty won his 5 House contests from 1992 through 2000 by an average of 54.4 points.

· Paulsen won his 7 House races from 1994 through 2006 by a 37.8-point average victory margin.

· Seifert won his 7 House races from 1996 through 2008 by an average of 29.9 points.

Zellers, meanwhile, has won his 4 contests by an average margin of victory of just 10.3 points, or about 1/3 that of Seifert, 1/4 that of Paulsen and Sviggum, and 1/5 that of Pawlenty.

Although his responsibilities now and during the 2010 session will focus on setting his caucus' agenda, recruiting Republican candidates for the 2010 election, and fundraising for the GOP, Zellers, unlike his predecessors, will also have to keep one eye on his DFL opponent in his own district race, to make sure he is in a position to return to the House in 2011.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 11:25 PM ¤

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Economy and jobs Iowa Minnesota

Iowa Endures Largest Monthly Increase in Unemployment in Quarter Century

The new numbers released late last week by Iowa Workforce Development continue to highlight the worst employment trend the Hawkeye State has faced in more than three decades.

Iowa's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 5.1 in April to 5.8 percent in May - the biggest net and percentage increase in more than 24 years.

Since January 1976, Iowa has endured a double-digit percentage month-to-month increase in unemployment in only two months: January 1985 (23.5 percent) and May 2009 (13.7 percent).

Largest Monthly Percentage Increases in Unemployment in Iowa, 1976-2009

Month	Rate	% Increase
January 1985	8.4	23.5
May 2009	5.8	13.7
January 2009	4.8	9.1
March 2009	5.2	6.1
December 1979	4.9	4.3

The net 0.7-point increase in May 2009 is also the second largest net jump in unemployment during this 33+ year span.

Over the past four decades, Iowa has had a remarkably stable workforce and, since January 1976, unemployment has risen by more than one-tenth of a percent in just 8 out of 400 months. However, three of these largest net increases have occurred in 2009.

Largest Monthly Net Increases in Unemployment in Iowa, 1976-2009

Month	Rate	Net Increase
January 1985	8.4	1.6
May 2009	5.8	0.7
January 2009	4.8	0.4
March 2009	5.2	0.3
December 1979	4.9	0.2
April 1980	5.4	0.2
August 1980	5.9	0.2
December 1981	7.6	0.2

Iowa has had by far the most stable unemployment numbers throughout the Upper Midwest since the 1970s.

By contrast, Minnesota has had the largest number of months with a greater than 0.1-point increase in unemployment in the region, with more than 8 times as many months (65) with such increases as Iowa (8).

Wisconsin is close behind with 64 months, followed by North and South Dakota.

Months With More Than 0.1-Point Increase in Unemployment by State, 1976-2009

State	Months
Minnesota	65
Wisconsin	64
North Dakota	54
South Dakota	34
Iowa	8

Iowa Governor Chet Culver has not fared well politically during this economic downturn. Culver finished out 2008 strong with a 57 percent approval rating in December. However, that rating fell to 50 percent in January and then below the 50 percent mark in each of the five subsequent monthly polls, currently settling at 42 percent in June (SurveyUSA).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 11:12 PM ¤

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MN Election 2008 Media Minnesota

Minnesota U.S. Senate Race Still Fodder for Late-Night Comedians

Now seven and a half months out from Election Day, the U.S. Senate contest between DFLer Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman is still providing a few yucks on late-night television.

In recent weeks, Bill Maher has been a virtual Norm Coleman joke factory on his Real Time with Bill Maher program on HBO. The (left-leaning, quasi-libertarian) Maher has been using the controversial elections in Iran as a springboard for digs at Coleman's expense.

On his June 12th program, Maher said:

"They had elections today in Iran. Apparently it's still too close to call. They say if the vote is still close by tomorrow there'll be a runoff election next week, and then the usual series of lawsuits by Norm Coleman."

Maher's joke evoked sparse laughter and only a smattering of applause, which prompted him to surmise:

"I think that's exactly half the audience who knows who Norm Coleman is."

Unswayed, Maher continued to use the Iranian elections as a template for his commentary about the lengthy Minnesota Senate contest on the most recent episode of Real Time airing last Friday:

"The supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei - not Ayatollah Khomeini - Ayatollah Khamenei, totally different dude, right. He said, "This election was not rigged, the results are final, and you can protest all you want, but if you keep doing it we're going to start cracking heads." (pause) Now if we can only get this guy to call Norm Coleman."

At which point there was only a handful of knowing chuckles, which prompted Maher to proclaim:

"I'm going to keep doing Norm Coleman jokes until people find out who the f*** he is! I don't care. I don't care."

Real Time is off the air for the next few weeks, so it will be interesting to see if Maher takes a third stab at Coleman should the Minnesota Supreme Court make a ruling on his lawsuit during the interim.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 02:02 PM ¤

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Ideology Minnesota U.S. House

Is the Minnesota US House Delegation Voting More Conservatively?

With the DFL winning a string of 9 consecutive presidential elections, 4 out of 5 U.S. Senate contests (counting Al Franken), and netting 35 state House and 11 state Senate seats since 2002, Minnesota has been frequently characterized as an increasingly "Democratic-leaning" state.

The outputs of the DFL's electoral success are quite measurable, and are no more evident than in the 2008 U.S. House elections when, although the GOP did not lose any seats, Republican candidates received the lowest level of voter support across the state since 1934 (at 38.1 percent across all 8 Congressional districts). A bad roll of the dice during the next redistricting process could lead to the loss of one of the GOP's three seats.

But has this Democratic momentum translated into legislating for more liberal policies from the Minnesota U.S. House delegation in D.C.?

A Smart Politics analysis of National Journal's yearly composite vote rankings since the Republican Revolution of 1994 actually suggests Minnesota's congressional delegation, en masse, is getting more conservative, not less. (The composite rankings tally key votes in the areas of economic, social, and foreign policy).

· During the first 8 years after the Republican Revolution until redistricting, 1995-2002, the average conservative rating across the state delegation was 36.2 percent - meaning Minnesota's representatives (in sum) were more conservative than just over a third of U.S. House members.

· During the last six years after redistricting, 2003-2008, the conservative voting record of the Minnesota delegation increased 28 percent - at 46.3.

One reason for the increasingly conservative tilt during this span is due to the simple fact that Republicans won more contests. From 1995-2002, the Minnesota GOP held only 28.1 percent of U.S. House seats (18 of 64), whereas from 2003-2008 they held 45.8 percent of such seats (22 of 48).

However, two other factors are in play.

First, the Republican delegation itself is voting more conservatively. From 1995 through 2002, the average composite conservative rating of Minnesota GOP House members was 65.9 percent. From 2003 through 2008, that rating increased to 73.1 percent.

From 1995 through 2002, the GOP delegation (Jim Ramstad, Gil Gutknecht, and John Kline at the tail end) had a collective conservative rating of more than 70 percent in only one year (1999). However, from 2003 through 2008, members of this delegation (which included Ramstad, Gutknecht, Kline, Mark Kennedy, and Michele Bachmann) had a conservative rating above 74 percent in 4 of the 6 years - and flirted with 80 percent during 2007 and 2008, even with the ever-moderate Ramstad still in office.

The second factor contributing to this more conservative tilt is that the Minnesota DFL delegation has not voted less conservatively in recent years. It's holding flat - despite the general DFL dominance in statewide and district contests held after the 2002 elections (with Governor Tim Pawlenty's 2006 victory the notable exception).

From 1995 through 2002, the DFL's collective conservative rating averaged 24.2 percent - never dipping below 20 percent nor above 30 percent. From 2003 through 2008, the DFL's collective conservative rating has averaged a nearly identical 23.9 percent (ranging between 21 and 27 percent).

Note: National Journal's rankings reflect normalized scores between 0 through 100. As such, what this data reveals is that, based on the 'key votes' identified each year by the publication, Minnesota's congressional delegation was voting more conservatively in recent years as compared to the U.S. House overall (which may be, but is not necessarily, an indication of increased conservativeness among its members per se).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 10:54 PM ¤

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Governorships Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin

Pawlenty Unallotment Strategy, Decision Not to Run in 2010 Have Little Impact on Approval Ratings

Just as Tim Pawlenty's announcement that he would use an unallotment strategy to resolve the state's budget crisis had little impact on his approval ratings in late May, his decision to not seek a third term as Minnesota's Governor also seems to have had little impact on his approval ratings in June.

The latest round of monthly SurveyUSA polling finds Pawlenty's approval rating in mid-June at 47 percent - down from 49 percent in May.

Pawlenty had seen his disapproval numbers increase in five consecutive months, rising from 38 to 50 percent from November 2008 through April 2009, until SurveyUSA's numbers in May came in at 49 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving in a poll of 600 adults statewide (MoE +/- 4.1). Pawlenty's disapproval rating was back up to 50 percent in June.

Overall, however, there has been remarkably little fluctuation in Pawlenty's job ratings considering the headlines he has caused during the past 30 days.

First, a little more than a month ago, Pawlenty pulled the rug out from under the DFL leadership when he announced he would balance the budget by signing their spending bills, veto their tax increase legislation, and then unallot spending on targeted programs. Pawlenty saw a only a slight boost in his approval rating from April to May - from 46 to 49 percent.

Then, in early June, Pawlenty announced he would not be seeking a third term. This again saw little impact on his approval rating - falling a statistically insignificant two points to 47 percent.

Pawlenty Job Performance Rating, April - June 2009

Month	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
April 2009	46	50	4
May 2009	49	48	3
June 2009	47	50	3

Source: SurveyUSA polling data of 600 adults statewide.

Another trend that has remained consistent is how Minnesotans are currently much more content with the job performance of their Republican governor than Iowans and Wisconsinites are of their Democratic governors.

In Wisconsin, 2-term Democratic Governor Jim Doyle has seen his approval ratings languish in the low to mid 30s during the past four months - the worst period in his 6+ years in office.

In Iowa, 1-term Democratic Governor Chet Culver has also endured lower job performance ratings than Pawlenty in every month this year, with his current approval rating resting at just 42 percent.

Upper Midwestern Gubernatorial Approval Ratings, 2009

Month	Doyle (WI)	Culver (IA)	Pawlenty (MN)
January 2009	48	50	53
February 2009	40	46	48
March 2009	32	46	51
April 2009	35	42	46
May 2009	33	48	49
June 2009	33	42	47

Note: SurveyUSA polling data conducted of 600 adults in each state.

All three governors have faced significant economic challenges in their respective states. Since December 2008:

· Wisconsin has seen its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increase 50.8 percent from 5.9 to 8.9 percent
· Iowa has seen its jobless rate increase 31.8 percent from 4.4 to 5.8 percent
· Minnesota's unemployment rate has risen 39.4 percent from 6.6 to 8.2 percent.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 08:03 PM ¤

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Minnesota U.S. House Wisconsin

Minnesota, Wisconsin Lead Nation in Largest Proportion of House Committee Leadership Posts

U.S. Representative John Kline's (MN-02) election this week as the Ranking Member of the House Committee on Education and Labor further established the Gopher State's House delegation as one of the most powerful in the nation.

Minnesota now has 3 of its 8 U.S. Representatives holding chairmanships or the ranking member position in the two dozen U.S. House committees (including joint and select committees). James Oberstar (MN-08) chairs the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee while Collin Peterson (MN-07) chairs the Committee on Agriculture.

With 37.5 percent of its House membership now holding such committee leadership positions, Minnesota ties Wisconsin for the highest proportion of its House delegation to hold chairmanships or ranking member status across all 50 states.

Long-serving Wisconsin Representative David Obey (WI-07) chairs the powerful Appropriations Committee, emerging Republican leader Paul Ryan (WI-01) is the Ranking Member of the Budget Committee, and GOPer James Sensenbrenner (WI-05) is the Ranking Member of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. Wisconsin also has an 8-member delegation to the House.

Overall, Minnesota and Wisconsin are tied with Michigan with the fourth largest absolute number of chairmanships and ranking memberships, behind California with 10 (18.9 percent of its delegation), New York with 7 (24.1 percent), and Texas with 5 (15.6 percent). Michigan, however, has a 15-member delegation, so only 20.0 percent of its representatives hold such leadership posts.

Smart Politics recently profiled Representatives Oberstar and Obey as two of the biggest power brokers on Capitol Hill.

With several recently-elected Representatives in Minnesota (Erik Paulsen, Keith Ellison, Michele Bachmann, Tim Walz) and Wisconsin (Gwen Moore, Steven Kagen) the Gopher and Badger States may have reached their peak with the 111th Congress in terms of the largest number of committee leadership positions held by each state.

Highest Proportion of U.S. House Delegations with Committee Chairs or Ranking Members by State

State	Positions	Delegation	Percent
Minnesota	3	8	37.5
Wisconsin	3	8	37.5
West Virginia	1	3	33.3
Alabama	2	7	28.6
Mississippi	1	4	25.0
New York	7	29	24.1
Missouri	2	9	22.2
Michigan	3	15	20.0
Massachusetts	2	10	20.0
Oklahoma	1	5	20.0
California	10	53	18.9
South Carolina	1	6	16.7
Texas	5	32	15.6
Tennessee	1	9	11.1
Indiana	1	9	11.1
Washington	1	9	11.1
Florida	2	25	8.0
Pennsylvania	1	19	5.3

Note: Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:00 AM ¤

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Minnesota Presidency

Obama Approval Rating Dips Below 60 Percent in Minnesota

It took nearly half a year, but President Barack Obama's approval rating finally fell below the 60 percent mark in the Gopher State, according to the latest round of monthly polls conducted by SurveyUSA.

Obama had previously notched an approval rating between 61 and 64 percent during the first five months of SurveyUSA polling from January through May. In the new mid-June poll taken of 600 Minnesota adults, 59 percent approve of the job Obama is doing as president, with 36 percent disapproving.

Of the more than a dozen states tracked by SurveyUSA each month, Obama only received a higher approval rating in California (65 percent), New York (64 percent), and Washington (63 percent).

The modest (and within the margin of error) two-point rating drop Obama experienced in Minnesota from May to June paled in comparison to the decrease in support he experienced in states such as Iowa (-9 points), New Mexico (-9), and New York (-7).

Despite a slight decline in approval ratings in each of the last two months, the Gopher State's appraisal of the President remains the most static of all the states tracked by SurveyUSA since January. With a high of 64 percent (January) and a low of 59 percent (June), Minnesota's favorable evaluation of the president's job performance has ranged within just 5 points since Inauguration Day.

By contrast, Obama's high and low approval marks have ranged by 11 or more points in 10 of the other 12 states, with Washington (7-point range) and Virginia (8 points) being the second and third most stable in their evaluation of the president's job performance behind Minnesota.

The neighboring states of Iowa (11 points) and Wisconsin (17 points) have more than double and triple the variation of Minnesota respectively in terms of the approval rating they give President Obama.

Range in President Barack Obama Job Approval Rating, January - June 2009

State	High	Low	Range
Minnesota	64	59	5
Washington	69	62	7
Virginia	62	54	8
Iowa	68	57	11
Oregon	68	56	12
New Mexico	65	53	12
New York	78	65	13
Alabama	60	46	14
California	77	63	14
Missouri	65	51	14
Kentucky	62	47	15
Wisconsin	70	53	17
Kansas	62	44	18

Note: SurveyUSA monthly polling data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:38 AM ¤

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Economy and jobs South Dakota

South Dakota Unemployment Rate Reaches 5 Percent for First Time Since 1985

New unemployment numbers released by the South Dakota Department of Labor quickly doused the short-lived optimism about the economic situation in the Upper Midwest, which had seen historic increases in the jobless rates across the Upper Midwest halt and slightly reverse course in April in four states - South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and North Dakota.

But in May, South Dakota's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was back on the rise, hitting 5.0 percent - the highest jobless rate for the state in nearly a quarter century. Jobless claims have not been this high in the Mount Rushmore State since December 1985 and have not been higher since unemployment reached 5.1 percent in August 1983.

Unemployment has not reached the 6.0 percent mark in South Dakota during the past 33+ years according to the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The increase in unemployment since April 2008 of 2.9 to 5.0 percent means unemployment has risen 2.1 points over the last 12 months - or an increase of 72.4 percent. This marks the second highest 1-year increase on record since 1976.

In fact, the Top 5 largest yearly percentage increases in the state's jobless rate have all occurred during the first five months of 2009 - a sobering sign of just how unprecedented the current economic crisis is for South Dakotans.

Largest Yearly Proportional Unemployment Increase in South Dakota, 1976-2009

Rank	Period	Percent increase
1	March 2008 - March 2009	75.0
2	May 2008 - May 2009	72.4
3	February 2008 - February 2009	70.4
4	April 2008 - April 2009	65.5
5	January 2008 - January 2009	63.0

Note: Table compiled by Smart Politics with data from the South Dakota Department of Labor and Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

With the nation's jobless rate climbing to 9.4 percent, South Dakota's unemployment rate is now 4.4 points lower than the country as a whole. This marks the 12th largest percentage point difference in unemployment between South Dakota and the U.S. overall during the past 33+ years (with the largest being 5.0 points in both November and December 1982).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 09:48 PM ¤

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Education Minnesota

How Will Pawlenty's Unallotment Impact State's Higher Ed Ranking?

When Governor Tim Pawlenty proposed a collective unallotment of $100 million to the University of Minnesota and the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MNSCU) system on Tuesday, higher education officials breathed a short sigh of relief. After the end of session a month ago, Pawlenty speculated an additional $190 million in budget cuts to higher education might be forthcoming.

The legislature had previously reduced funding by $93.7 million to MNSCU over the 2010-11 biennium, with $79.2 million of that offset by one-time federal stimulus money over the next two years. The higher education budget signed last month also cut the University of Minnesota's budget by $177 million over the next biennium, with $89.3 million allocated in federal stimulus money to soften the blow.

How will all these budgeted and unalloted cuts affect the Gopher State's strong commitment to higher education?

A Smart Politics analysis of Kaiser Family Foundation and Census Bureau data finds Minnesota had the second largest per capita spending of any state in the country in 2007. At $491.15 per person, Minnesota trailed only Hawaii ($517.00) and was well ahead of 3rd place New Mexico ($465.14).

By comparison, the neighboring state of North Dakota spent only 73 percent of this amount on higher education per capita ($358.55, #7 nationally), followed by Iowa at 56 percent ($276.76, #15), Wisconsin at 46.4 percent ($227.97, #27), and South Dakota at 46.3 percent ($227.56, #28).

The net $102+ million in budget cuts (after federal stimulus money) from last session's higher education bill plus the $100 million unalloted by Pawlenty on Tuesday results in a $38.73 per capita reduction in higher education spending for the next biennium, or about $19.36 per capita each year (although the budget cuts and federal stimulus funds are not spread out evenly across the two years).

Even assuming each of the other 49 states in the nation refrained from making any cuts to higher education (which will not be the case as nearly every state faces a budget deficit as well), Minnesota will thus likely remain in the Top 2 or 3 states in the nation in terms of per capita higher education spending, even after these cuts are implemented.

It is certainly unknowable at this time how the ever unfolding economic situation will impact the state's higher education budget in the 2012-2013 biennium. Nonetheless, at least in the short term, the current budget cuts are not of a scale large enough to dethrone the Gopher State as one of the leading states in the country in its commitment to higher education.

Yearly Higher Education Spending Per Capita by State

Rank	State	Per Capita
1	Hawaii	$517.00
2	Minnesota	$491.15
3	New Mexico	$465.14
4	Alaska	$445.87
5	North Carolina	$380.27
6	Alabama	$367.45
7	North Dakota	$358.55
8	Nebraska	$333.63
9	Kentucky	$300.76
10	Louisiana	$298.59
11	Utah	$291.99
12	Delaware	$290.92
13	California	$285.50
14	Kansas	$279.07
15	Iowa	$276.76
16	Texas	$271.26
17	Maryland	$258.27
18	Indiana	$252.16
19	New Jersey	$247.62
20	Oklahoma	$246.27
21	Virginia	$244.95
22	Tennessee	$242.00
23	Arkansas	$238.85
24	West Virginia	$237.54
25	Georgia	$230.96
26	Washington	$229.49
27	Wisconsin	$227.97
28	South Dakota	$227.56
29	Florida	$223.26
30	Ohio	$222.10
31	Idaho	$210.66
32	South Carolina	$198.89
33	Connecticut	$193.36
34	Nevada	$190.76
35	Maine	$189.90
36	New York	$184.04
37	Rhode Island	$179.87
38	Arizona	$178.15
39	Illinois	$177.11
40	Michigan	$172.74
41	Massachusetts	$170.36
42	Oregon	$162.00
43	Pennsylvania	$161.87
44	Montana	$161.25
45	Missouri	$147.34
46	Mississippi	$145.31
47	Colorado	$140.50
48	Vermont	$133.60
49	New Hampshire	$95.76
50	Wyoming	$67.58

Note: Per capita ranking calculated by Smart Politics based on 2007 higher education spending data from the Kaiser Family Foundation and July 2008 population estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:19 AM ¤

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Ideology Minnesota U.S. House

Why Michele Bachmann's Political Ideology Is the Boldest Among U.S. House Republicans

Continuing to serve as a lightning rod for the political left in the Gopher State, the month of June has seen Representative Michele Bachmann maintain her remarkably high profile among not only the Minnesota Congressional delegation, but also nationally among her GOP colleagues throughout the U.S. House.

Earlier this month, the 2-term Congresswoman introduced the Taxpayer Protection and Anti-Fraud Act, which aims to prevent groups that have been repeatedly investigated and indicted for voter registration fraud to receive taxpayer dollars. Bachmann also urged supporters to sign an on-line petition to get a floor vote on the bill in order to "Stop ACORN" (the community-based Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, that, among other projects, works on voter registration).

With the political vacuum on the right caused by Tim Pawlenty's decision not to run for a third term as Governor, Representative Bachmann's name has also come up as a long-shot candidate. According to Tom Scheck's reporting at MPR, Bachmann is leaving that door slightly ajar although Smart Politics agrees a 2010 run to bring her back to St. Paul is highly unlikely.

But the multitude of examples in which Representative Bachmann has advocated staunchly conservative principles in the local and national media during the past half year demonstrates not only the Congresswoman's increasingly prominent voice as a rising leader of the conservative movement, but also a certain boldness - a boldness perhaps unmatched by her Republican colleagues in the U.S. House.

Here's why:

To highlight the riskiness of Bachmann's commitment to unabashed conservatism, Smart Politics examined the Top 50 most conservative members of the U.S. House (as determined by National Journal's annual rankings).

A Smart Politics analysis found Representative Bachmann to have received the smallest margin of victory of those 44 conservative Republicans who won reelection in 2008. (Four of the Top 50 conservative GOP Representatives retired, one lost the GOP primary, and one lost in the general election).

The average margin of victory for these 44 members of Congress was more than 10 times that of Bachmann - at 31.9 points last November. In fact, Representative Bachmann was the only one on the list who won by less than 12 points.

National Journal ranked Bachmann as the 31st most conservative member of the House in 2008, and while detractors might suggest the aberration of her small margin of victory among the most conservative representatives in D.C. was her own doing (i.e. a by-product of her own controversial statements), there is much evidence to suggest the closeness of her race was due more to the moderate political temperature of the 6th CD itself:

· For example, of the Top 31 most conservative House members, Bachmann's 6th Congressional District is one of only five in which John McCain's margin of victory was less than a double-digit margin. (The others being Ed Royce from CA-40, Mike Pence from IN-06, George Radanovich fromCA-19, and Joe Pitts from PA-16).

· Moreover, as Smart Politics established earlier this year, Bachmann's district has been trending increasingly Democratic for the last few election cycles - with DFL state legislators quadrupling their number of House seats in the 6th CD since 2002 and slicing the average GOP margin of victory in half from 13.4 to 6.5 points.

· Thirdly, Bachmann was one of only six U.S. House Representatives among the 'Conservative 50' who won reelection in 2008 having served just one term heading into last November's elections.

However, despite her comparative lack of political experience in D.C., despite the rising Democratic trend in her district, and despite her extremely narrow margin of victory vis-à-vis her conservative colleagues, Congresswoman Bachmann refuses to be gun shy when voicing her conservative views.

In short, while other conservative Republicans on Capitol Hill might occasionally give their voice to some of the conservative principles and policies espoused by Bachmann, none represents a more vulnerable seat than Bachmann's, few represent a more moderate congressional district, and thus few put as much political capital at risk when doing so.

And this is why Smart Politics is designating Michele Bachmann's political ideology as the boldest among the 178 Republicans in the U.S. House.

2008 Margin of Victory Among the Top 50 Most Conservative Members of the U.S. House

Rank	Name	District	2008 CD MoV	McCain MoV
1	Trent Franks	AZ-02	22.3	23
1	Paul Broun	GA-10	21.5	25
1	Jeb Hensarling	TX-05	67.2	27
4	Gresham Barrett	SC-03	29.5	29
5	Todd Akin	MO-02	26.9	11
6	Doug Lambourn	CO-05	23.0	19
6	Jeff Miller	FL-01	40.4	35
6	Virginia Foxx	NC-05	16.7	23
9	Steve King	IA-05	22.4	11
10	John Shadegg	AZ-03	12.0	14
11	Tom Price	GA-06	37.0	28
12	Ed Royce	CA-40	25.1	5
13	Phil Gingrey	GA-11	36.4	33
13	Bill Sali	ID-01	-1.2	26
15	Kenny Marchant	TX-24	14.9	11
16	John Boehner	OH-08	35.8	23
16	Chris Cannon	UT-03	lost primary	38
18	Mike Pence	IN-06	30.6	6
19	Randy Neugebauer	TX-19	47.5	45
20	Roy Blunt	MO-07	39.6	28
21	Adrian Smith	NE-03	53.7	39
22	Wally Herger	CA-02	15.8	12
23	Patrick McHenry	NC-10	15.1	27
24	George Radanovich	CA-19	97.2	6
24	Mike Conaway	TX-11	76.7	51
26	Lynn Westmoreland	GA-03	31.4	29
26	Mac Thornberry	TX-13	55.3	53
28	Rob Bishop	UT-01	34.4	31
29	Jeff Flake	AZ-06	27.9	23
29	Jim Jordan	OH-04	30.3	22
31	Michele Bachmann	MN-06	3.0	8.7
31	Joe Pitts	PA-16	16.4	3
33	John Kline	MN-02	14.8	2
34	John Culberson	TX-07	13.5	17
34	Pete Sessions	TX-32	16.7	7
36	John Campbell	CA-48	14.9	-0.7
36	John Doolittle	CA-04	retired	10
36	Barbara Cubin	WY-AL	retired	32
39	Joe Barton	TX-06	26.4	20
39	Sam Johnson	TX-03	21.7	15
41	John Carter	TX-31	23.7	16
41	Terry Everett	AL-02	retired	26
43	Ted Poe	TX-02	77.9	20
44	Dan Burton	IN-05	31.1	19
45	Paul Ryan	WI-01	29.3	-4
46	John Linder	GA-07	24.1	21
46	Steve Scalise	LA-01	31.4	46
48	Kevin Brady	TX-08	47.8	48
48	Geoff Davis	KY-04	26.1	22
50	Dave Weldon	FL-15	retired	3

Note: Conservative ranking data from National Journal's 2008 analysis of key votes.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:03 AM ¤

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Afghanistan Iraq

U.S. Military Fatalities Continue at Record High Pace in Afghanistan, Record Low Pace in Iraq

As President Barack Obama approaches the 5-month mark of his administration, his political supporters, especially those on the liberal end of the ideological spectrum, are faced with reconciling the President’s campaign promises on the military, national security, and the country’s conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the policies he has delivered thus far.

Obama has not earned favor with the left-wing of the Democratic Party with his stance on the continuation of military tribunals, his opposition to the release of prisoner abuse photographs, his support for indefinite detention of many detainees, the continued operation (for the meantime) of Guantanamo Bay, and maintaining of the nation’s don’t-ask-don’t-tell policy regarding gays in the military.

While Obama supporters might be surprised at Obama’s stance on those politics, they should not be surprised at the administrtaion’s military policy regarding the wars in Iraq and, particularly, Afghanistan.

During the campaign, Obama pledged he would take action in Afghanistan where President George W. Bush had failed – and vowed to take out Osama Bin Laden. Obama has responded with increased troop levels in that nation, continued Predator drone attacks, and support of the Pakistani military attempts to quash the Taliban uprising in that country.

However, as a result of the White House policy to “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future,” U.S. fatalities on the Afghan front are on a record pace in 2009.

There have been 13 U.S. military deaths in Afghanistan thus far in June, bringing the total to 74 so far in 2009 and eclipsing the 700 mark since the war began in 2001. This puts the U.S. on pace for 163 fatalities for the year – with that number likely to increase as more American troops are put in harm’s way with the new Obama policy. This would mark the 3rd consecutive year of increased U.S. fatalities in Afghanistan – rising from 98 in 2006, to 117 in 2007, and 155 in 2008.

Troop fatalities have also exceeded or are on pace to exceed record highs for other coalition partners this year including Australia, Latvia, Norway, Romania, and the United Kingdom. The UK is on pace for 69 troop fatalities which would be a 35 percent increase from its previous death toll high of 51 in 2008.

Overall, Canadian, UK, and USA forces – the three nations which comprise the biggest military presence in the region – are bracing for a double-digit rate of increase in fatalities in 2009 (up 11 percent – from 238 to 263), with all coalition forces topping 300 deaths for the first time since the war began in 2001.

U.S. and Coalition Military Fatalities in Afghanistan, 2001-2009

Year	USA	UK	Canada	Big 3	All coalition
2001	12	0	0	12	12
2002	49	3	4	56	69
2003	48	0	2	50	57
2004	52	1	1	54	59
2005	99	1	1	101	131
2006	98	39	36	173	191
2007	117	42	30	189	232
2008	155	51	32	238	294
2009*	74	31	14	119	136
2009 projected	163	69	31	263	301
Total	704	168	120	992	1,181

* Through June 14, 2009. Source: iCasualties.org.

Meanwhile, in Iraq, U.S. troop fatalities are currently at a record low pace for the year – despite deaths in May reaching the highest level (25) since June 2008. Overall, 91 American military personnel have died in Iraq in 2009, with a projected total for the year of 201 fatalities.

However, the decrease in U.S. troop deaths in Iraq was already well underway during the final year of the Bush administration, with 2008 fatalities (314) down 65 percent from 2007 (904). Projections indicate deaths of U.S. forces will decrease about 36 percent in 2009 from 2008 levels.

But the strongest objections by the political left, who rallied to the support of Obama last year, have been to the U.S. military presence in Iraq, not U.S. fatalities per se. With Obama’s stated plan to ‘responsibly end the war’ in Iraq, U.S. troops will continue their current mission until August 31, 2010, whereupon the mission will change to training, equipping and advising Iraqi Security Forces, conducting targeted counterterrorism operations, and providing force protection for military and civilian personnel.

Obama’s plan for the removal of all U.S. troops from Iraq is currently set for the end of 2011 – nearly three years after taking office.

U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq, 2003-2009

Year	Fatalities
2003	486
2004	849
2005	846
2006	822
2007	904
2008	314
2009*	91
2009 projected	201
Total	4,312

* Through June 14, 2009. Source: iCasualties.org.

Despite the downward trending military deaths in Iraq and upward trending levels in Afghanistan, U.S. fatalities are still projected to be higher in Iraq than Afghanistan by the end of the year.

However, at a margin of 37 fatalities, this is the narrowest margin since the U.S. was engaged on both fronts in 2003. Just two years ago there were 787 more U.S. military deaths in Iraq than Afghanistan.

U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq vis-à-vis Afghanistan, 2003-2009

Year	Iraq	Afghanistan	Difference
2003	486	48	438
2004	849	52	797
2005	846	99	747
2006	822	98	724
2007	904	117	787
2008	314	155	159
2009*	91	74	17
2009 projected	201	163	38

* Through June 14, 2009. iCasualties.org data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 08:50 PM ¤

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Crime and punishment Economy and jobs Minnesota

Minneapolis Index Crime Rate Falls 18 Percent from April 2008

The Minneapolis Police Department’s official Uniform Crime Report data for April 2009 finds crime in Minnesota’s largest city down 18 percent from one year ago.

The 18 percent 12-month drop is the largest in the city dating back more than two years to February 2007, when crime was down 23.9 percent from 12 months prior.

Crime rates generally rise in Minneapolis coming out of the winter into the spring and mid-summer, and April’s crime rate did increase 0.3 points from March 2009 – from 4.0 to 4.3 index crimes per 1,000 residents. (Index crimes are comprised of four violent crimes (homicide, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery) and four property crimes (burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson)).

However, the crime rate of 4.3 incidents per 1,000 residents in April 2009 is the lowest April crime rate in Minneapolis this decade. After peaking at a rate of 6.0 incidents per 1,000 residents in April 2006, the crime rate has fallen in each of the subsequent three years – to a rate of 5.7 in April 2007, 5.2 in April 2008, and 4.3 in April 2009. This marks a drop of more than 650 index crimes in the city in April 2009 compared to April 2006.

This decade-long April crime rate low has taken place in the face of the worst unemployment trend the city has endured in years. April’s 6.9 percent non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is tied for the third-highest in Minneapolis this decade.

Still, index crimes have fallen despite the rising unemployment rate. For example, while the unemployment rate in April 2009 is 156 percent higher than it was in April 2000 (2.7 percent), the crime rate is 28.3 percent lower (at a rate of 4.3 incidents per 1,000 residents versus 6.0).

And though the April 2009 unemployment rate is 73 percent higher in Minneapolis from one year ago (4.0 percent), index crimes have dropped 18 percent.

Minneapolis April Crime Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, 2000-2009

Period	Index crimes	Crime rate	Unemployment rate
April 2000	2,317	6.0	2.7
April 2001	2,128	5.5	3.5
April 2002	1,993	5.1	5.1
April 2003	2,229	5.7	4.7
April 2004	1,720	4.4	4.6
April 2005	2,064	5.3	3.9
April 2006	2,324	6.0	3.6
April 2007	2,229	5.7	3.9
April 2008	2,033	5.2	4.0
April 2009	1,667	4.3	6.9

Note: Index crime data for homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson from the Minneapolis Police Department. Crime rate per 1,000 residents compiled by Smart Politics from an average city population base of 388,020. Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment data from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:02 AM ¤

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Gender Minnesota South Dakota

Minnesota, Western States Lead Nation in Male Population; Vote for GOP Governors

In one of the quirkier statistical findings reported by this blog, a new Smart Politics analysis of Census Bureau data finds that all twelve states in the country in which the male population is equal to or greater than that of the female population are located west of the Mississippi River – including the states of Minnesota and South Dakota.

And in what may not be a coincidence, with males tending to be more Republican than females nationwide, voters in 75 percent (9) of these 12 states currently have Republican governors in office – compared to just 34 percent (13) of the remaining 38 states in the country.

Overall, women comprise approximately 51 percent of the population of the United States, including the majority population of 38 states.

Of the 24 states west of the Mississippi River, however, males comprise at least 50 percent of the population in 12 of them (including 51 percent in Nevada). The Upper Midwestern states of Minnesota and South Dakota are among these 12 states, as well as Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming.

While women nationwide have consistently identified themselves more as Democrats than Republicans for decades, men have identified in greater numbers as Republicans than Democrats since the Reagan revolution in the early 1980s (though neither party has achieved a majority following among either gender, with approximately one-fifth to one-third of both males and females identifying as independents over the years).

Among the 12 states with the highest percentage male population, Republicans currently sit in the governor’s mansion in 9 of them (75 percent) – Minnesota, South Dakota, Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, and Utah. Democrats control the governorships of two-thirds of the remaining 38 states.

Gender Population by State

State	Female	Male	Governor
Nevada	49%	51%	GOP
Alaska	50%	50%	GOP
Arizona*	50%	50%	GOP
California	50%	50%	GOP
Colorado	50%	50%	DEM
Idaho	50%	50%	GOP
Minnesota	50%	50%	GOP
Nebraska	50%	50%	GOP
Oregon	50%	50%	DEM
South Dakota	50%	50%	GOP
Utah	50%	50%	GOP
Wyoming	50%	50%	DEM
New Hampshire	51%	50%	DEM
Arkansas	52%	49%	DEM
Connecticut	51%	49%	GOP
Delaware	52%	49%	DEM
Florida	51%	49%	GOP
Georgia	51%	49%	GOP
Hawaii	52%	49%	GOP
Illinois	51%	49%	DEM
Indiana	51%	49%	GOP
Iowa	51%	49%	DEM
Kansas	51%	49%	DEM
Kentucky	51%	49%	DEM
Maine	51%	49%	DEM
Michigan	51%	49%	DEM
Missouri	51%	49%	DEM
Montana	51%	49%	DEM
New Jersey	51%	49%	DEM
New Mexico	51%	49%	DEM
North Carolina	51%	49%	DEM
North Dakota	51%	49%	GOP
Ohio	51%	49%	DEM
Pennsylvania	51%	49%	DEM
Rhode Island	52%	49%	GOP
Texas	51%	49%	GOP
Vermont	51%	49%	GOP
Virginia	52%	49%	DEM
Washington	51%	49%	DEM
West Virginia	51%	49%	DEM
Wisconsin	51%	49%	DEM
Alabama	52%	48%	GOP
Louisiana	52%	48%	GOP
Maryland	52%	48%	DEM
Massachusetts	52%	48%	DEM
Mississippi	52%	48%	GOP
New York	52%	48%	DEM
Oklahoma	52%	48%	DEM
South Carolina	52%	48%	GOP
Tennessee	52%	48%	DEM

Sources: Bureau of the Census Current Population Surveys (2007, 2008) and Kaiser Family Foundation State Health Facts.org. * Republican Arizona Governor Jan Brewer was not elected to office, having succeeded Janet Napolitano when she became Secretary of Homeland Security earlier in 2009.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 09:17 PM ¤

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SD Election 2010 South Dakota

Fact Check: Is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin a "Radical Liberal?"

Last Thursday the South Dakota Republican Party launched a new website called "Stop Stephanie," designed to attack 4-term At-large Democrat U.S. Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

Herseth Sandlin – a virtual lock for a 5th term should she decide to run again in 2010 – is also a rumored candidate for South Dakota’s open gubernatorial seat (GOP Governor Tim Rounds is term-limited). Herseth's grandfather, Ralph Herseth, is one of only four Democrats to have won a gubernatorial race (1958) in South Dakota since statehood.

On the new website, the South Dakota Republican Party vows to “highlight the radical liberal voting record” of the Congresswoman. “Twenty years in Washington, DC, has changed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin,” said South Dakota Republican Party Chairman Bob Gray. “Her rhetoric in South Dakota simply does not match her voting record in Washington.”

But does Representative Herseth Sandlin have a “radical liberal" voting record?

Unless the South Dakota Republican Party views every Democrat in Washington, D.C. as a radical, there is little evidence to support this charge.

First, Herseth Sandlin is a member of the 51-member conservative Democratic Blue Dog Coalition on the Hill, along with other Upper Midwestern conservative Democrats like Minnesota’s Collin Peterson, Iowa’s Leonard Boswell, and North Dakota’s Earl Pomeroy. Herseth is also the Blue Dog Co-Chair for Administration.

Secondly, National Journal’s analysis of key votes in their annual vote rankings consistently finds Herseth Sandlin to be among the two-dozen most conservative Democrats in the House.

In fact, as more Democrats have been elected to the House, Herseth Sandlin’s liberal ranking has dropped from #177 in 2004, to #182 in 2005 and 2006, to #204 in 2007, to #216 in 2008.

In 2008, the Congresswoman actually had a higher conservative than liberal ranking, at #212, with only 14 Democrats in the House having a more conservative voting record that year according to National Journal's analysis.

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin National Journal Vote Record Ranking, 2004-2008

Year	Liberal rank	Conservative rank	More conservative Democrats
2008	216	212	14
2007	204	224	24
2006	182	247	19
2005	182	254	25
2004	177	251	24

Note: National Journal data compiled by Smart Politics.

Since winning a 2004 special election on June 3, 2004 by 1.8 points, Herseth Sandlin has been reelected by 7.5 points in November 2004, 39.8 points in 2006, and 35.1 points in 2008.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 07:46 PM ¤

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Minnesota Partisanship

How Do We Judge Governor Pawlenty's Political Legacy?

As Tim Pawlenty completes the remaining 18+ months of his second term, before venturing into (politically or financially) greener pastures, he has vowed to “Continue to spend every day doing what’s right for them. Minnesota will get my very best until I’m done. There is much important and difficult work remaining, and I will tackle it aggressively and finish strong.”

With one and one-half chapters left to write in his book as Governor, it is therefore certainly too early to judge the political legacy he has left behind in the Gopher State with any clarity.

In fact, quantifying that legacy, now or in the future, will surely be a difficult task.

Looking only at the political (not policy) side of the equation, Pawlenty has survived, and his national reputation has thrived, in the midst of the Democratic landslides that have taken place in recent years. The Governor’s fellow Republicans statewide, however, have not fared so well.

What do the numbers look like?

· Since Pawlenty took office in January 2003, the DFL has won 60 percent (289 of 482) of state legislative special and general election contests.

· The DFL has won 58.8 percent of House contests and netted a total of 35 seats since 2003.

· In the Senate, the DFL has nearly won double the number of elections as the GOP (49 to 25), adding a net 10 seats to their column.

· In Congressional elections, the DFL has similarly won 61.5 percent of seats since 2003, 14 of 24 U.S. House contests and both US Senate elections (presuming Norm Coleman loses his Minnesota Supreme Court challenge). In 2008, Republican US House candidates actually received the lowest level of voter support for the GOP since 1934.

· Republicans also lost control of two state constitutional offices during this span (Secretary of State, State Auditor).

Change in the Number of Prominent Republican Officeholders in Minnesota, 2003-2009

Office	GOP 2003	GOP 2009	Change
MN House	82	47	-35
MN Senate	31	46	-10
US House	4	3	-1
US Senate	1	0	-1
Const. Officers	3	1	-2

While those numbers do not look good for Pawlenty’s political legacy, it is difficult to make the case that this atrophying of the state Republican Party, and the accompanying Democratic surge in the Gopher State, should be attributed to the Governor. In fact, many analysts can point to Pawlenty’s moderately high approval ratings in the face of Democratic landslides as evidence for the plus column for his political legacy (i.e. the 'last Republican standing').

That is to say, if Pawlenty were an unpopular governor, not only would he not have been reelected in 2006, but perhaps the Republican losses across legislative and Congressional seats would have been even worse. Moreover, Pawlenty’s current approval numbers in the face of the state budget and economic crises (still hovering around 50 percent) suggest that he would have once again been a strong candidate against the DFL again in 2010, should he have decided to run for a third term (most national political analysts rated him as a slight favorite, as did Smart Politics).

Evidence therefore points to the national decline of the Republican Party – and the unpopularity of George W. Bush – as the primary reasons for the legislative and Congressional setbacks for the GOP over the past six years in the Gopher State.

For example, in February 2003, shortly after Pawlenty took office, the Governor had an approval rating of 60 percent (Star Tribune Minnesota Poll). President Bush had a nearly identical approval rating of 59 percent that month (Gallup Poll).

But by the November 2008 elections, Bush’s approval ratings had dropped to 28 percent (Gallup Poll), while Pawlenty’s remained virtually unchanged at 58 percent (SurveyUSA).

In short, if Pawlenty's executive or political leadership was hurting his fellow Republicans statewide, then why weren't his own numbers taking a hit as well?

While it is difficult to see how Pawlenty, as the face of the Republican Party in Minnesota, can emerge with his political legacy completely untarnished by his party's losses, a much stronger case can be made that such defeats endured by the GOP in Minnesota were more of a direct result of Bush’s negative 32-point approval rating plunge and the anti-Republican climate that swept much of the country and the Midwest in recent years.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 10:15 AM ¤

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Religion

How High Does the U.S. Rank in World Muslim Population?

During the past week, President Barack Obama has made a determined effort to emphasize both the importance of Islam to American culture and history, as well as suggesting Muslims comprise a substantial percentage of the U.S. population.

Obama first got into factually murky waters on Monday when, during an interview with France’s Canal Plus Television, he stated:

"If you actually took the number of Muslims Americans, we'd be one of the largest Muslim countries in the world."

During Thursday's speech in Cairo watched around the world, Obama backed off this assertion, although the President frequently employed language to suggest there is a large Islamic presence in the United States:

“Moreover, freedom in America is indivisible from the freedom to practice one's religion. That is why there is a mosque in every state of our union, and over 1,200 mosques within our borders….So let there be no doubt: Islam is a part of America.”

But how many Muslims actually live in the United States, and how does its population rank worldwide?

The data on the precise number of adherents to Islam in the United States varies greatly, with many organizations estimating over 5 to 6 million.

However, in order to make worldwide comparisons, Smart Politics conducted an analysis of C.I.A. World Factbook data, which now includes new July 2009 total population estimates for each nation.

The C.I.A. Factbook states that just 0.6 percent of Americans identify themselves as Muslim, which ranks sixth behind Protestants (51.3 percent), Roman Catholics (23.9 percent), Mormons (1.7 percent), Jews (1.7 percent), and Buddhists (0.7 percent).

With a July 2009 estimated population of 307,212,123 Americans, that means there are just over 1.8 Muslims living in the United States today.

How does that number rank worldwide?

Quite low, as it turns out, and not even in the Top 50.

According to an analysis of World Factbook data, the United States ranks 61st in the world in terms of the largest Muslim population by country. The USA also has the lowest percentage of Muslims of any of the Top 70 nations with at least 1 million adherents to Islam.

Muslim Population by Country

Rank	Country	Population	% Muslim	Muslims
1	Indonesia	240,271,522	86.1	206,873,780
2	Pakistan	176,242,949	95.0	167,430,802
3	India	1,166,079,217	13.4	156,254,615
4	Bangladesh	156,050,883	83.0	129,522,233
5	Turkey	76,805,524	99.8	76,651,913
6	Egypt	83,082,869	90.0	74,774,582
7	Nigeria	149,229,090	50.0	74,614,545
8	Iran	66,429,284	98.0	65,100,698
9	Morocco	34,859,364	98.7	34,406,192
10	Algeria	34,178,188	99.0	33,836,406
11	Afghanistan	33,609,937	99.0	33,273,838
12	Sudan	41,087,825	70.0	28,761,478
13	Saudi Arabia	28,686,633	100.0	28,686,633
14	Iraq	28,945,657	97.0	28,077,287
15	Ethiopia	85,237,338	32.8	27,957,847
16	Uzbekistan	27,606,007	88.0	24,293,286
17	Yemen	23,822,783	100.0	23,822,783
18	China	1,338,612,968	1.5	20,079,195
19	Syria	20,178,485	90.0	18,160,637
20	Russia	140,041,247	12.5	17,505,156
21	Malaysia	25,715,819	60.4	15,532,355
22	Tanzania	41,048,532	35.0	14,366,986
23	Senegal	13,711,597	94.0	12,888,901
24	Niger	15,306,252	80.0	12,245,002
25	Zambia	11,862,740	100.0	11,862,740
26	Mali	12,666,987	90.0	11,400,288
27	Tunisia	10,486,339	98.0	10,276,612
28	Somalia	9,832,017	100.0	9,832,017
29	Guinea	10,057,975	85.0	8,549,279
30	Cote d'Ivoire	20,617,068	38.6	7,958,188
31	Burkina Faso	15,746,232	50.0	7,873,116
32	Azerbaijan	8,238,672	93.4	7,694,920
33	Kazakhstan	15,399,437	47.0	7,237,735
34	Democratic Republic of Congo	68,692,542	10.0	6,869,254
35	Tajikistan	7,349,145	90.0	6,614,231
36	Libya	6,310,434	97.0	6,121,121
37	Jordan	6,342,948	92.0	5,835,512
38	Chad	10,329,208	53.1	5,484,809
39	Philippines	97,976,603	5.0	4,898,830
40	France	64,057,792	7.5	4,804,334
41	United Arab Emirates	4,798,491	96.0	4,606,551
42	Turkmenistan	4,884,887	89.0	4,347,549
43	Kyrgyzstan	5,431,747	75.0	4,073,810
44	Uganda	32,369,558	12.1	3,916,717
45	Kenya	39,002,772	10.0	3,900,277
46	Sierra Leone	6,440,053	60.0	3,864,032
47	Mozambique	21,669,278	17.8	3,857,131
48	Ghana	23,832,495	15.9	3,789,367
49	Cameroon	18,879,301	20.0	3,775,860
50	Oman	3,418,085	100.0	3,418,085
51	Mauritania	3,129,486	100.0	3,129,486
52	Germany	82,329,758	3.7	3,046,201
53	Thailand	65,905,410	4.6	3,031,649
54	Eritrea	5,647,168	48.0	2,710,641
55	Albania	3,639,453	70.0	2,547,617
56	Lebanon	4,017,095	59.7	2,398,206
57	Kuwait	2,691,158	85.0	2,287,484
58	Benin	8,791,832	24.4	2,145,207
59	Burma	48,137,741	4.0	1,925,510
60	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4,613,414	40.0	1,845,366
61	United States	307,212,123	0.6	1,843,273
62	Malawi	14,268,711	12.8	1,826,395
63	United Kingdom	61,113,205	2.7	1,650,057
64	Kosovo	1,804,838	90.0	1,624,354
65	Sri Lanka	21,324,791	7.6	1,620,684
66	Gambia, The	1,782,893	90.0	1,604,604
67	Madagascar	20,653,556	7.0	1,445,749
68	Togo	6,019,877	20.0	1,203,975
69	Nepal	28,563,377	4.2	1,199,662
70	Israel	7,233,701	16.0	1,157,392

Note: C.I.A. World Factbook population and religion data compiled by Smart Politics. Data on the percentage of Muslims comprising Zambia and Eritrea culled from the U.S. State Department.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:00 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Does Marty Seifert Represent a 'Swing District?'

GOPer Marty Seifert (21A-Marshall) announced yesterday that he would be stepping down as Minority Leader of the House of Representatives on June 24th, explaining he did not think it was appropriate to represent his caucus while contemplating a new position – that of governor of the Gopher State.

While stating he was still two steps removed from officially “running” – Seifert says he is now in the “consideration” phase, which, if all goes well, will then move to the “exploratory” phase – the outgoing Minority Leader did make an initial pitch as to why he thought he would be a strong candidate for the GOP.

Seifert, in thanking his constituents for reelecting him by wide margins, referred to his seat as being located in a “swing district” – thus suggesting the Representative would be able to translate his political victories at home to the state at large:

“Representing a somewhat swing district that was carried by Amy Klobuchar, Collin Peterson, Bill Clinton, David Minge, Lori Swanson, and others, it is not something that I ever, ever want to take for granted.”

Later, when explaining he has been an underdog his whole political career, Seifert again referenced Democratic victories in 21A:

“I’ve been an underdog my whole life. When I ran for my House seat I was 24 years old. People said ‘you have no chance at winning’ – Clinton carried my district as did David Minge that year.”

But just how much of a swing district is 21A?

The Clinton and Minge victories, of course, came before redistricting in 2002. And while it is true that several DFLers have carried 21A, these have largely been in the context of blow-out elections.

For example, while Amy Klobuchar did win the district in 2006 (and nearly every other house district in the state) she did so by just 2.3 points; Senator Klobuchar carried the state by 20.2 points overall, giving HD 21A a +17.8 Republican tilt in that race. Rep. Collin Peterson, meanwhile, has won his last four contests by an average of 37.1 points across his congressional district.

Additionally, although Seifert cited Lori Swanson in the list of DFLers who have carried 21A, the Attorney General actually lost the district by 3.0 points to Republican Jeff Johnson in 2006. Mike Hatch, however, did carry the district in his 2002 Attorney General reelection bid, although by 10.0 points less than his 13.8-point statewide victory.

Overall, since the introduction of the new legislative and congressional district maps in 2002, HD 21A has had a Republican tilt in all 13 statewide elections, as well as in each of the four U.S. House contests, averaging a +14.2 advantage for the GOP.

In short, Seifert currently represents one of the safest GOP districts in the state.

Republican Tilt to House District 21A, 2000-2008

Office	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008
President	+15.9		+19.8		+14.8
US Senate	+9.0	+5.6		+17.8	+13.4
US House*	-1.4	+24.8	+19.8	+14.1	+6.2
Governor		+10.6		+16.8
Attorney General		+10.0		+15.5
Secretary of State		+9.9		+20.1
Auditor		+4.1		+17.5

* In 2000, HD 21A was located in the 2nd CD. From 2002-2008 it has been located in the 7th CD. Table compiles the difference in margin of victory (or loss) for the Republican candidate for each office statewide (or, in the case of the U.S. House, districtwide) versus the margin of victory or loss for that Republican candidate in HD 21A. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Still, Seifert has been impressive in his reelection campaigns this decade – winning by 39.0 points in 2000, 37.5 points in 2002, 21.3 points in 2004, 21.5 points in 2006, and 34.3 points in 2008.

Moreover, a Smart Politics analysis of the past five election cycles finds the outgoing Minority Leader has consistently outperformed all of his fellow Republican candidates up the ballot in his district.

In the 15 statewide contests that have been held since 2000, Seifert’s margin of victory has averaged 22.0 points greater than the margin of victory (or loss) of the GOP candidates up the ballot in HD 21A. If one includes the five U.S. House contests to that grouping, Seifert has outperformed these high profile GOP candidates by a staggering 28.5-point margin.

Marty Seifert Margin of Victory vs. GOP Candidate Margin of Victory (or Loss) Up the Ballot in HD 21A, 2000-2008

Office	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008
President	+25.5		+5.0		+29.8
US Senate	+35.5	+29.6		+23.8	+20.9
US House	+40.4	+43.4	+33.8	+48.2	+72.6
Governor		+19.0		+3.7
Attorney General		+41.3		+18.5
Secretary of State		+24.5		+6.2
Auditor		+32.6		+14.8

Note: Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, Seifert has several attributes that might work to his advantage should he choose to run for Governor – his demeanor, his relationship with the media, his ability to turn a clever or colorful phrase, and his well-known “brutal honesty” (as he calls it) – even when that means criticizing the Republican Party on occasion when it goes awry (as profiled in a recent Smart Politics posting).

But, what cannot be said, under the currently-drawn district maps, is that Seifert represents even a “somewhat swing district.”

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:17 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

From T-Paw to J-Ram: Is Jim Ramstad the GOP's Answer in 2010?

Tim Pawlenty’s decision Tuesday not to seek an unprecedented third 4-year term as Governor of the Gopher State not only emboldened the candidacies of the long list of DFLers already on the campaign trail, but also raised the issue as to what type of candidate the Republican Party should run in an increasingly left-leaning state to give the GOP its best chance in denying the DFL the governor’s office for a sixth consecutive election cycle.

As the state Republican Party looks to fill Pawlenty’s shoes on its side of the ballot in 2010, one name that has the mouths of many centrists and independents watering is the prospective candidacy of former 9-term Republican Congressman Jim Ramstad from Minnesota’s Third Congressional District.

Ramstad, in many ways, would be the nightmare candidate for the DFL – a liberal Republican with a cool temperament and strong name recognition, especially in the Metro area, with moderate to liberal stances on a number of social issues that would undoubtedly take several of the sharpest arrows out of the quiver of whomever emerges as the DFL nominee.

An October 2008 SurveyUSA poll of Ramstad’s 3rd CD gave the Congressman extremely high favorability numbers among likely voters of all partisan stripes:

Jim Ramstad Favorability Rating in 3rd CD, October 2008

Party	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable
Republican	68	18	8
Independent	62	22	11
Democrat	46	30	12
Total	58	24	10

Source: SurveyUSA Poll, October 6-7, 2008.

But how well could Ramstad perform outside of his district in a statewide race? And how politically reflective is the 3rd District of the Gopher State overall?

As it turns out, the 3rd CD has proven to be a very good thermometer by which to measure the political temperature of the state in recent years. During the last five statewide elections for the presidency (2004, 2008), the governor’s office (2006), and U.S. Senate (2006, 2008), the 3rd CD has averaged just 3.3 points off the total vote percentage for the winning candidate statewide. In short, if you can with the 3rd, you can win the state.

For example, in the 2008 presidential race, the difference between Barack Obama’s vote total in the 3rd CD (52.4 percent) was just 1.7 points off his total statewide (54.1 percent).

Ramstad’s old district ranks right at the top, along with the 1st and 8th CDs, as the most reflective of Minnesota overall in high-profile statewide elections:

Average Difference between Vote for Winning Candidate Statewide and Vote in Congressional Districts in High Profile Minnesota Statewide Elections, 2004-2008

District	Points
8th	2.4
1st	3.0
3rd	3.3
7th	5.8
2nd	6.3
6th	8.9
4th	9.1
5th	18.9

Note: Table averages the absolute value of the difference in the vote for the winning candidate statewide and the vote for that candidate in each congressional district in Minnesota presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races from 2004-2008. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Despite all these positives, Ramstad, to be sure, is not the dream candidate for the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Ramstad has received low ratings in the past from groups such as the NRA, and the Congressman has on occasion self-effacingly referred to himself as a RINO (Republican in name only).

In fact, given the increasingly polarized nature of political parties, Ramstad, like Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania in 2010 and Joe Lieberman in Connecticut in 2006, may no longer be electable in his party’s primary – especially for statewide office.

Then again, perhaps Ramstad will surprise everyone and run as an independent. The switch would complement his track record in Congress as a true centrist: back in 2006, the Republican congressman was rated fairly dead center along the partisan spectrum – the 199th most liberal and 231st most conservative member of Congress, according to National Journal.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:06 AM ¤

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National Politics U.S. Supreme Court

Are Supreme Court Justices Living Longer?

Yesterday Smart Politics challenged the popular notion that Presidents have been eying younger Supreme Court nominees in recent years, presumably to deepen their impact and legacy on the Supreme Court as the judicial branch has become seen as more partisan. But an analysis of U.S. Senate confirmation data found the average age of Supreme Court justices at the time of their confirmation has been fairly stable since the 1820s (about 54 years of age).

Although presidents are not getting notably younger justices seated on the Court, are those justices living longer and thus able to serve more years? If so, how much longer are they living?

To be sure, the life expectancy of Americans has increased dramatically during the past two centuries. As such, presidents nominating 54 year-old candidates for the bench today (such as Sonia Sodomayor) expect their nominee to live several more years than a justice who was confirmed in, say, the 1800s.

But is this so?

In Part 2 of an examination of the Court, Smart Politics finds that while the average life expectancy of Americans has doubled over the past 200+ years, from about 35 years to approximately 78 years, the difference in the life spans of Supreme Court justices over this period has been much narrower.

One hundred Supreme Court justices have served and died across the 220 years since the first justice was confirmed back in 1789, with the average life span of these 100 justices being 73.9 years.

Aggregated by decade of birth, the 29 justices who were born in the 1700s lived to an average ripe old age of 69.3 years – or about double the normal life expectancy of a white male of that era (approximately 35 years). All but five of these justices (James Wilson, James Iredell, Alfred Moore, Robert Trimble, Philip Barbour) lived at least to the age of 60.

The 60 justices born in the 1800s lived to an average age of 74.6 years old, with all but two (Joseph Lamar Rucker and Frank Murphy) reaching 60.

The 11 justices born in the 1900s who are now deceased lived to an average age of 81.8 years old – with every justice reaching 70.

Life Span of Deceased Supreme Court Justices by Century of Birth, 1700s-1900s

Century	# Justices	Age
1700s	29	69.3
1800s	60	74.6
1900s	11	81.8
Total	100	73.9

Note: Data from The Supreme Court Historical Society compiled by Smart Politics.

Perhaps due in large part to their privileged family background and lifestyle (generally and relatively speaking), members of the Supreme Court have always lived much longer lives than the public at large. Moreover, since presidents have not historically nominated many individuals that were less than 50 years old, such justices would, by definition, have already lived to a much older age than average Americans of their day.

Still, the difference is quite staggering.

Using Bureau of the Census life expectancy data, a Smart Politics analysis of the 42 deceased justices who were born after 1850 finds they lived an average of 34.1 years longer than the average American born in the year of their birth.

Three justices lived at least 50 years longer than average:

· FDR nominee Stanley Reed lived to the age of 95 years, which was 54 years longer than the life expectancy of a white male born in 1884 (41 years).
· FDR nominee James Byrnes lived to the age of 92 – 52 years longer than the average white male born in 1879.
· LBJ nominee Thurgood Marshall lived to the age of 84, which was 50 years longer than the average non-white male born in 1908.

Every Supreme Court justice born after 1850 lived at least 10 years longer than the average life expectancy of males in the year of their birth – and all but four at least 20 years longer.

Aggregated by decade, it is evident that justices of the Court have consistently lived long lives, even those born back in the 1700s and 1800s. In a stark example, the four justices born in the 1880s (Felix Frankfurter, Stanley Reed, Hugo Black, Harold Burton) lived to an average age of 84.5 years – more than double the life expectancy of the average white male born that decade (41 years).

Average Life Span of Deceased Supreme Court Justices by Decade of Birth, 1730s-1920s

Decade	# Justices	Age
1920s	2	84.5
1910s	3	75.0
1900s	7	85.0
1890s	9	69.6
1880s	4	84.5
1870s	4	78.3
1860s	7	78.4
1850s	7	73.0
1840s	5	79.0
1830s	7	75.6
1820s	5	68.0
1810s	7	75.4
1800s	6	72.3
1790s	3	78.0
1780s	6	68.2
1770s	4	66.3
1760s	3	68.3
1750s	5	67.6
1740s	4	67.0
1730s	5	70.4
Total	100	73.9

Note: Data from The Supreme Court Historical Society compiled by Smart Politics.

According to Bureau of the Census data, a non-white woman born in 1954 (the year Sonia Sotomayor was born) has a life expectancy of 64 years at birth.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:25 AM ¤

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