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Campaign finances MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Bachmann 2010 Election Fundraising Effort Outpacing '08 by 32 Percent

Small donor contributions to Bachmann soar by 355 percent compared to two years ago while special interest PAC money declines 51 percent

In helping to solidify her efforts to defend a seat highly targeted by Democrats in Washington and statewide, two-term Congresswoman Michele Bachmann begins 2010 with significantly more fundraising support than she received two years ago at this point in the election cycle - and from radically different donor sources.

A Smart Politics analysis of FEC data finds Representative Bachmann's 2009 fundraising efforts, completing her third year in D.C., are up 32.0 percent from the money she had raised at the end of her first year in Congress during the last election cycle in 2007.

For the 2009 calendar year, Bachmann raised $1,535,543 through individual contributions, PACs, and political party committees, compared to $1,163,314 for 2007, an increase of nearly one-third.

Representative Michele Bachmann's Yearly Fundraising Tally: Year 1 (2007) vs. Year 3 (2009)

Type	2007	2009	Change
PACs	$384,357	$188,785	-50.9
Individuals	$778,966	$1,346,283	+72.8
Itemized	$619,438	$620,129	+0.1
Small donors	$159,527	$726,154	+355.2
Total	$1,163,314	$1,535,543	+32.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

But while Bachmann raised over $300,000 more in 2009 than the second highest fundraiser in the Gopher State's U.S. House delegation (Erik Paulsen), the story behind the story is not the extent of Bachmann's contributions, but its form.

While individual contributions to Bachmann's campaign are up 72.8 percent from 2007 ($778,966) to 2009 ($1,346,283) her receipts from large money donors are flat: $619,438 in 2007 versus $620,129 in 2009.

One thing that has changed, however, and has been reported by Smart Politics throughout the past year, is the unprecedented scope of small donations from individuals contributed to Bachmann's campaign (Donations tallying less than $200 for the election cycle).

In 2009, Bachmann received $726,154 in small donor funds - up 355.2 percent from 2007 ($159,527).

In 2007, just 13.7 percent of Bachmann's total receipts were from small donors, compared to a whopping 47.3 percent in 2009, buoyed in part by the Congresswoman's successful media blitz that began more than one year ago.

Small donor funding has comprised a larger and larger percentage of Bachmann's total quarterly fundraising receipts throughout this election cycle: 25.5 percent in Q1 2009, followed by 35.5 percent in Q2, 56.6 percent in Q3, and 59.3 percent in Q4.

The second major trend that continues to develop in Bachmann's fundraising numbers is the sharp decrease in PAC money that is being donated to the Congresswoman's campaign - to the tune of a 50.9 percent decrease from the respective period in 2007. Bachmann raised $384,357 from PACs in 2007, but just $188,785 from such committees in 2009.

While donations from individuals comprised 92.7 percent of Bachmann's Q4 2009 nearly $600,000 haul, PAC money has declined to just 7.3 percent - the lowest percentage of quarterly funds the Representative has received from PACs since landing the Republican Party endorsement for the 6th Congressional District back in May 2006.

Representative Bachmann relies less on PAC money as a component of her fundraising profile than any other member of the Gopher State U.S. House delegation. By contrast, 90.7 percent of Rep. Collin Peterson's (comparatively meager) Q4 2009 fundraising receipts came from PACs.

Percentage of PAC vs. Individual Donations to Michele Bachmann by Quarter, 2009

Type	Q1 2009	Q2 2009	Q3 2009	Q4 2009
Individuals	80.4	81.4	90.9	92.7
PACs	19.6	18.6	9.1	7.3

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, the $591,599 raised by Bachmann in Q4 2009 is the fourth highest in her career - with the other three occurring much later in their respective election cycles: $1,073,462 in Q4 2008, $856,456 in Q3 2006, and $816,687 in Q2 2006.

Fundraising by the DFL candidates challenging Bachmann are also far ahead of the pace of their candidate in 2007, El Tinklenberg (who announced his candidacy much later in the year). Tinklenberg had raised just $133,152 by the end of 2007, compared to $602,095 raised by Tarryl Clark and $574,625 by Maureen Reed in 2009.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:23 AM ¤

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National Politics U.S. House U.S. Senate Voting

Red States Hold Primaries More than Five Weeks Earlier on Average than Blue States: Which Party Benefits?

Study finds average 'red state' primary date is June 15th, while average 'blue state' date is July 23rd. 'Purple state' average date is July 11th.

As Illinois voters went to the polls last Tuesday to launch the 2010 primary season, other states, such as Minnesota and Vermont, are contemplating moving their primary dates to earlier in the calendar year.

But even if the Minnesota legislature, for example, is successful in moving the Gopher State's primary date from September 14th to August 10th as proposed in new State Senate legislation, blue states will still dominate the back end of the primary schedule.

A Smart Politics analysis finds that the average primary date for red states is June 15th - more than five weeks earlier than the average primary date for blue states (July 23rd). Purple states rest in between with an average primary date of July 11th.

(Note: the 'average primary date' is calculated by assigning a numerical value for each day of the year and dividing the sum total of primary date values by the number of red, blue, and purple states respectively. For a note on the definition of red, blue, and purple states, and the admitted quibbling that may result at the margins, see the footnote at the bottom of the table, below).

Almost half of the nation's 20 blue states will hold primary elections in the middle of September.

Under the current primary calendar, blue states comprise nine of the last ten spots on the list: Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin all hold their elections on September 14th with Hawaii four days later on September 18th.

One purple state - New Hampshire - also holds its primary on September 14th.

The latest primary date for a red state is August 24th (Alaska) with 15 of the nation's 19 red states holding primaries before August 1st.

The momentum pushing some states on the back end of the calendar to move their primary elections forward is coming from the pressure on election officials to allow enough time in the event of a recount (a particularly sensitive issue in Minnesota) to be able to mail general election ballots in time to its overseas residents (i.e. armed services members).

But will these earlier primaries in red and some purple states, and later primaries in blue states, benefit Republicans or Democrats in 2010?

In general, political parties looking to steal a seat against a potentially vulnerable incumbent want their nominee selected as soon as possible - solidifying (financial) support around a candidate and having enough time to build name recognition in the electorate to compete with well-known incumbents.

With that in mind, Arkansas' early primary date (tied for the eighth earliest in the nation on May 18th, with a potential runoff on June 8th) would seem to favor the Republicans, who are hoping to pick up Democrat Blanche Lincoln's U.S. Senate seat.

Likewise, Nevada's early primary date of June 8th (tied for 16th earliest in the nation) will winnow the field of Republican candidates to one nearly five months before the general election as the GOP seeks to dethrone Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid.

In U.S. House races, the GOP will get an early look at its nominees in red states against incumbents in districts they hope to capture such as Walt Minnick's 1st CD seat in Idaho (May 25th), Bobby Bright's 2nd CD seat in Alabama (June 1, pending a potential runoff), and Travis Childers 1st CD seat in Mississippi (June 1, pending a potential runoff).

In purple states, the Republican Party will settle on its U.S. House nominees late in the spring against vulnerable Democratic incumbents such as Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio's 15th district (May 4) and Tom Perriello in Virginia's 5th CD (June 8).

On the other hand, late primary dates in some purple and blue states may help a few rookie Democratic incumbents who seek to stave off challengers.

For example, lightning rod Alan Grayson in Florida's 8th CD won't officially have an opponent until August 24th and the GOP challenger of Frank Kravotil in Maryland's 1st CD won't be settled until September 14th.

However, most Democratic-held U.S. Senate and U.S. House seats in blue states with late primaries in September, are either not expected to be vulnerable to GOP pick-ups, or are open seat races, which means both parties are facing the same compressed timeline to rally behind a candidate.

2010 Primary Dates in Chronological Order

Rank	State	Date	Partisan tilt
1	Illinois	February 2	Blue
2	Texas	March 2	Red
3	Indiana	May 4	Red
3	North Carolina	May 4	Red
3	Ohio	May 4	Purple
6	Nebraska	May 11	Red
6	West Virginia	May 11	Purple
8	Arkansas	May 18	Purple
8	Kentucky	May 18	Red
8	Oregon	May 18	Blue
8	Pennsylvania	May 18	Blue
12	Idaho	May 25	Red
13	Alabama	June 1	Red
13	Mississippi	June 1	Red
13	New Mexico	June 1	Blue
16	California	June 8	Blue
16	Iowa	June 8	Blue
16	Maine	June 8	Blue
16	Montana	June 8	Red
16	Nevada	June 8	Purple
16	New Jersey	June 8	Blue
16	North Dakota	June 8	Red
16	South Carolina	June 8	Red
16	South Dakota	June 8	Red
16	Virginia	June 8	Purple
26	Utah	June 22	Red
27	Georgia	July 20	Red
28	Oklahoma	July 27	Red
29	Kansas	August 3	Red
29	Michigan	August 3	Blue
29	Missouri	August 3	Purple
32	Tennessee	August 5	Red
33	Colorado	August 10	Purple
33	Connecticut	August 10	Blue
35	Washington	August 17	Blue
35	Wyoming	August 17	Red
37	Alaska	August 24	Red
37	Arizona	August 24	Purple
37	Florida	August 24	Purple
40	Louisiana	August 28	Purple
41	Delaware	September 14	Blue
41	Maryland	September 14	Blue
41	Massachusetts	September 14	Blue
41	Minnesota	September 14	Blue
41	New Hampshire	September 14	Purple
41	New York	September 14	Blue
41	Rhode Island	September 14	Blue
41	Vermont	September 14	Blue
41	Wisconsin	September 14	Blue
50	Hawaii	September 18	Blue

Note: Ten states also have potential runoff elections. Deciding on a red-blue-purple state definition, of course, is subject to some quibbling. One quick-and-dirty method is to simply look at the most recent presidential race (e.g. Obama states vs. McCain states), although that method unfairly paints some states as 'blue' when they have been historically red in recent years (e.g. Indiana, North Carolina). As such, this table reflects the definition of a red state as having an average margin of victory over the past five presidential election cycles of more than five points for the Republicans, a blue state of more than five points for the Democrats, and a purple state as having less than a five point tilt in either direction. This results in 20 blue states, 19 red states, and 11 purple states. This yields a workable, but admittedly flawed definition (e.g. Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia stand out as questionable 'purple' states at this point in political history).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Why Minnesota Democrats Should Be Thankful Tim Pawlenty Is Not Running for Reelection

Republican gubernatorial incumbents in Minnesota have won 93 percent of reelection defenses since statehood (25 of 27), while losing 70 percent of open seat contests over the past century

While most renowned political prognosticators currently list the 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial matchup in the 'toss-up' category (e.g. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato), the DFL will be fighting more than the changing national political environment in its attempt to recapture the governorship this November - it will also be fighting history.

In recent weeks, Smart Politics has documented that Minnesota currently has the third longest Democratic gubernatorial drought in the nation (23+ years), behind only South Dakota and Utah, and that Democrats have had historical difficulties in winning gubernatorial elections in Minnesota with a Democrat in the White House - losing 22 of 25 such races since statehood.

However, there is one historical trend that can buoy the DFL's spirits in the run up to the 2010 election - and it all starts with Tim Pawlenty's decision to not seek reelection last June.

A Smart Politics analysis of Minnesota elections finds that the GOP has not held an open gubernatorial seat since 1946 and has lost four of the last five such contests since 1930 and seven of the last ten dating back to 1898.

Republicans most recently lost their hold on the Minnesota governor's mansion in the following open seat races:

· In 1998, after Arne Carlson's exit (with Reform Party nominee Jesse Ventura beating Norm Coleman by 2.7 points).
· In 1982, after Al Quie's 1-term reign in St. Paul (with DFLer Rudy Perpich defeating Wheelock Whitney).
· And in 1970, after Harold LeVander opted not to seek reelection (with DFLer Wendell Anderson subsequently beating Douglas Head by 8.5 points).

After nine consecutive successful defenses of open gubernatorial seats from the 1860s to the 1890s (in 1863, 1865, 1869, 1873, 1875, 1881, 1886, 1888, and 1892), the GOP lost control of the Governor's mansion to the Democrats in its next three such open seat races, in 1898, 1904, and 1914. Republicans also lost their hold on the governorship in an open seat race in 1930 to the Farmer-Labor Party (Floyd Olson).

The last time the Republican Party held an open gubernatorial seat in Minnesota was back in 1946 when Luther Youngdahl won the first of his three terms after GOP Governor Edward Thye decided to seek (and won) the U.S. Senate seat that year.

In a statistical oddity, while the GOP has 12 victories and 7 defeats overall in defending open gubernatorial seats, the Democratic Party (and DFL) has only had only one opportunity to do so - in 1859, after the state's first Governor, Democrat Henry Sibley, did not seek reelection.

Every other Democratic or DFL governor has been on the ballot in the subsequent election cycle - with the Party winning six contests (1906, 1908, 1956, 1958, 1974, 1986) and losing five (1900, 1960, 1966, 1978, 1990).

Defending open seats, of course, is nearly always more difficult for a political party than seeing an incumbent candidate reelected. Overall, political parties in Minnesota have successfully defended open gubernatorial seats in just 59.1 percent of elections (13 of 22), while winning 80.5 percent of such contests with incumbents running on the ballot (33 of 41).

And here is why Democrats should be especially relieved Governor Tim Pawlenty is not seeking a third term.

Republican incumbents in Minnesota gubernatorial elections have a nearly unblemished record - with GOP governors winning reelection in 25 of 27 such contests since statehood (92.6 percent), culminating in Pawlenty's 1.0 point victory during the Democratic tsunami of 2006.

By contrast, DFL (and formerly Democratic Party) governors have won only 6 of 11 reelection bids in Gopher State history (54.5 percent). Third party incumbents are 2 for 3.

Additionally, Republicans have also enjoyed much larger margins of victory, and much smaller margins of defeat, with gubernatorial incumbents on the ballot. In their 25 victories with incumbents, the average margin of victory for the GOP has been 16.0 points. In defending open seats, their average margin of victory has been 26.3 percent smaller - at 11.8 points.

In the seven cases in which Democrats have taken back the governor's mansion from Republicans in open seat races, the GOP's average margin of defeat has been 9.6 points. In the two cases in which GOP incumbents were defeated (in 1954 and 1962) the average margin of defeat was just 3.0 points.

Republican Party Defense of Gubernatorial Seats in Minnesota with Incumbents vs. Non-Incumbents

Status	Win	Loss	MoV	MoD
Incumbents	25	2	16.0	-3.0
Open seats	12	7	11.8	-9.6

Note: some incumbents came into office as Lieutenant Governor after resignation or death of the Governor. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

So while national politics is currently boosting the standing of many Republican candidates across the country, Democrats in Minnesota should be thankful they will be running against Candidate X in November, and not a two-term Governor whose approval rating was 53 percent in a mid-January Rasmussen poll.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota Voting

Minnesota GOP Caucus Gubernatorial Straw Poll Voter Turnout Up Over 20 Percent from 2002

Despite the characterization that caucus night was a quiet night for Republicans (and DFLers) in some media reports (e.g. MinnPost), Republican turnout nonetheless increased by more than 20 percent since the last time the GOP was searching for its gubernatorial nominee back in 2002.

Eight years ago, just 15,862 Minnesotans cast their vote in the Republican gubernatorial straw poll. On Tuesday night, over 19,150 Gopher State residents voted in a precinct caucus GOP straw poll - an increase of 20.8 percent with 4,118 of 4,129 caucuses reporting as of late Wednesday evening.

The increased turnout occurred despite the fact that the precinct caucuses were held more than 1 month earlier in the election cycle in 2010 and in less pleasant weather conditions. Caucus attendees braved colder temperatures in 2010 than in 2002 and much of the state had just endured a moderate snowstorm, including the densely populated Metro region.

The 2002 caucuses were not held until March 5th, when the average temperature in the Twin Cities, for example, was 20 degrees with a low of 16, with less than one-tenth of an inch of snow falling on caucus day and the day prior.

For the 2010 caucuses held on February 2nd, the average temperature in the Twin Cities was 5 degrees lower at 15, with a low of 8, with 3.1 inches of snow falling on the roads and sidewalks of the metro area on caucus day and the day prior.

Republican caucus voters were also more decisive in their preferences in 2010 - despite having more candidates from which to choose. Less than 2 percent of attendees did not cast their ballot preference for one of the seven gubernatorial hopefuls.

In 2002, however, more than 11 percent of caucus straw poll voters were undecided whether they preferred one of the three candidates - Brian Sullivan, Tim Pawlenty, and Mike Vekich.

Former House Minority Leader Marty Seifert won a majority of the straw poll votes with just over 50 percent, followed by fellow Representative Tom Emmer at a shade over 39 percent.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 11:23 PM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

To the 'Losers' of the 2010 Minnesota Gubernatorial Straw Polls...

Sales of champagne did not likely spike Tuesday evening in the Gopher State, and any bottles that were uncorked were not likely by the winners, losers, or no-shows at the 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial straw polls.

And so, to all those candidates who failed to finish on top in their respective party's gubernatorial 'preference ballot' Tuesday evening, and as a gentle reminder to those who won, Smart Politics would like to introduce you to:

· Tim Pawlenty, who finished in 2nd place out of 3 candidates in the 2002 Republican gubernatorial straw poll, notching just 37 percent of the vote, and then went on to win the party's endorsement, primary, and the governorship. Brian Sullivan won the straw poll.

· John McCain, who finished in 10th place out of 11 candidates in the 2007 Ames (Iowa) GOP Presidential Straw Poll (with 0.7 percent) and 9th out of 12 candidates in the 2007 Texas Straw Poll (0.6 percent) and then won his party's nomination. Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter won the Iowa and Texas straw polls respectively.

· George H.W. Bush, who finished in 3rd place out of 8 candidates in the 1987 Iowa GOP Straw Poll (with 22.5 percent) and then went on to win the party's nomination and the presidency. Pat Robertson won the straw poll.

· And Ronald Reagan, who lost the 1979 Iowa Straw Poll to George H.W. Bush, but went on to win the party's nomination and the presidency.

Have no doubt, party politics in the Gopher State's 2010 gubernatorial race has only just begun...

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 01:47 AM ¤

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What's In a Name? Could Scrabble Scores Determine Minnesota's Next Governor?

Gubernatorial candidates with longer names and names with letters totaling higher Scrabble tile values are nearly twice as likely to win general election races throughout Minnesota history

(This report is the eighth installment in Smart Politics' 'Pathway to the Governor's Mansion' Series. Past reports analyzed the political experience, geographic background, ethnic background, age (part 1), astrological signs, age (part 2), and U.S. Senatorial experience of successful gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota history).

Name recognition is known to play an important role in determining voter candidate preferences, particularly in early polling matchups.

Familiarity with the candidates, for example, is one of the reasons why Mark Dayton (and Norm Coleman) led their respective fields in recent Rasmussen polling of DFL and GOP preferences for likely Minnesota voters (Coleman never even entered the race). It is also part of the reason why candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani got off to such fast starts in their respective 2008 presidential campaigns.

But what do the names of Minnesota Governors such as William Merriam, Adolph Eberhart, J.A.A. Burnquist, Theodore Christianson, and Luther Youngdahl have in common?

They not only went 12 and 0 in gubernatorial election contests in the Gopher State, but they also have names that were longer than their general election opponents and, if the board game Scrabble scored proper nouns, they would have also trounced their rivals in that contest as well.

A Smart Politics analysis of Minnesota's 64 gubernatorial races finds that those candidates with more unusual letters (those scoring higher points in Scrabble) and those with longer names win at nearly twice the rate as their closest opponent.

In total, 41 of the governors elected to the Gopher State have first and last names with higher Scrabble scores than their opponents, or a 64.1 percent rate of victory.

Candidates with more common letters comprising their names won only 22 elections, or 34.4 percent of the time. (The 1863 matchup between Stephen Miller and Henry Welles would have resulted in a Scrabble tie, at 20-20).

Governors such as John Johnson (31 points), John Pillsbury (30 points), Alexander Ramsey (28 points), Winfield Hammond (30 points), Adolph Eberhart (25 points), J.A.A. Burnquist (30 points), Theodore Christianson (29 points), and Luther Youngdahl (26 points) collectively notched not only a 19-1 electoral record, but also an 18-2 mark on the Scrabble board against their opponents.

All this is good news for Margaret Anderson Kelliher (35 points), should she receive the DFL nomination and emerge as the general election candidate. A 64 percent chance at victory is a diceroll many Democrats nationwide would gladly take in the current political climate which finds Republicans gaining momentum as the 2010 campaigns gear up.

On the Republican side, the best the GOP can offer up, excepting long-shot Phil Herwig (22 points), is Marty Seifert whose name scores a 20 on the Scrabble board - besting chief rival Tom Emmer by six points.

The Minnesota Governor whose name has the lowest Scrabble score is Arne Carlson. At just 13 points, Carlson was able to defeat Rudy Perpich (24) and John Marty (24).

Defeated 1982 Republican nominee Wheelock Whitney (36 points) has the honor of having the name with the highest Scrabble score of any first or second place gubernatorial candidate.

Of course, Scrabble does not count proper nouns in its rules of play. Moreover, a letter which might be unusual in non-proper nouns (such as "J") is much more common in names (e.g. John Johnson).

That being the case, Smart Politics also examined the length (number of characters) of names and found a similar pattern: gubernatorial candidates with longer names won at nearly twice the rate (36 victories, 56.3 percent) as those with shorter names (20, 31.3 percent).

(In eight instances, 12.5 percent of elections, the two leading candidates had the same number of characters in their names).

So while name recognition has long been established as an important factor in political campaigns, perhaps longer names or names with unusual letters likewise stand apart from the crowd in the mind of the voter.

Minnesota Gubernatorial Elections by Scrabble Score, 1857-2006

Year	Winner	Score	Loser	Score
1857	Henry Sibley	22	Alexander Ramsey	28
1859	Alexander Ramsey	28	George Becker	22
1861	Alexander Ramsey	28	E.O. Hamblin	16
1863	Stephen Miller	20	Henry Welles	20
1865	William Marshall	25	Henry Rice	17
1867	William Marshall	25	Charles Flandrau	24
1869	Horace Austin	17	George Otis	12
1871	Horace Austin	17	Winthrop Young	25
1873	Cushman Davis	23	Ara Barton	11
1875	John Pillsbury	30	David Buell	17
1877	John Pillsbury	30	William Banning	22
1879	John Pillsbury	30	Edmund Rice	16
1881	Lucius Hubbard	23	Richard Johnson	30
1883	Lucius Hubbard	23	Adolph Biermann	24
1886	Andrew McGill	21	Albert Ames	14
1888	William Merriam	23	Eugene Wilson	16
1890	William Merriam	23	Thomas Wilson	20
1892	Knute Nelson	15	Daniel Lawler	16
1894	Knute Nelson	15	Sidney Owen	17
1896	David Clough	22	John Lind	19
1898	John Lind	19	William Eustis	18
1900	Samuel Van Sant	18	John Lind	19
1902	Samuel Van Sant	18	Leonard Rosing	15
1904	John Johnson	31	Robert Dunn	13
1906	John Johnson	31	A.L. Cole	8
1908	John Johnson	31	Jacob F. Jacobson	35
1910	Adolph Eberhart	25	James Gray	22
1912	Adolph Eberhart	25	Peter Ringdahl	20
1914	Winfield Hammond	30	William Lee	15
1916	J.A.A. Burnquist	30	Thomas Dwyer	23
1918	J.A.A. Burnquist	30	David Evans	18
1920	J.A.O. Preus	17	Henrik Shipstead	28
1922	J.A.O. Preus	17	Magnus Johnson	26
1924	Theodore Christianson	29	Floyd Olson	17
1926	Theodore Christianson	29	Magnus Johnson	26
1928	Theodore Christianson	29	Ernest Lundeen	14
1930	Floyd Olson	17	Raymond Chase	23
1932	Floyd Olson	17	Earle Brown	15
1934	Floyd Olson	17	Martin Nelson	14
1936	Elmer Benson	15	Martin Nelson	14
1938	Harold Stassen	17	Elmer Benson	15
1940	Harold Stassen	17	Hjalmer Petersen	29
1942	Harold Stassen	17	Hjalmer Petersen	29
1944	Edward Thye	21	Byron Allen	15
1946	Luther Youngdahl	26	Harold Barker	22
1948	Luther Youngdahl	26	Charles Halsted	23
1950	Luther Youngdahl	26	Harry Peterson	21
1952	C. Elmer Anderson	19	Orville Freeman	22
1954	Orville Freeman	22	C. Elmer Anderson	19
1956	Orville Freeman	22	Ancher Nelsen	17
1958	Orville Freeman	22	George MacKinnon	25
1960	Elmer Andersen	16	Orville Freeman	22
1962	Karl Rolvaag	19	Elmer Andersen	16
1966	Harold LeVander	22	Karl Rolvaag	19
1970	Wendell Anderson	20	Douglas Head	17
1974	Wendell Anderson	20	John Johnson	31
1978	Al Quie	15	Rudy Perpich	24
1982	Rudy Perpich	24	Wheelock Whitney	36
1986	Rudy Perpich	24	Carl Ludeman	16
1990	Arne Carlson	13	Rudy Perpich	24
1994	Arne Carlson	13	John Marty	24
1998	Jesse Ventura	22	Norm Coleman	17
2002	Tim Pawlenty	21	Roger Moe	11
2006	Tim Pawlenty	21	Mike Hatch	23

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:57 AM ¤

Media National Politics Presidency

Is Barack Obama Avoiding the Press?

Obama press conferences front-loaded during 'honeymoon period' of 1st term; President has held fourth fewest solo press conferences during 1st year of office since Herbert Hoover

Although many significant events have transpired over the last 5 weeks - the Northwest Airlines Christmas Day bombing attempt, the Miranda rights political fallout after the apprehension of the would-be bomber, the election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy's U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, and public opinion and Democratic in-fighting putting the future of Barack Obama's pet issue of health care reform in limbo - the President is fast approaching the longest stretch of his administration without holding a press conference.

Obama has now gone 44 days since his last press conference on December 18th in Copenhagen - and is soon to overtake the stretch of 46 days he went without a press conference between August 10th and September 25th of 2009 and the 49-day period he went without taking questions from the press corps between September 25th and November 13th.

Obama has also gone 68 days since holding a press conference on U.S. soil (November 24, 2009), 128 days since handling the press in a solo news conference (September 25, 2009), and 193 days since his last 'full' news conference at the White House (July 22, 2009).

To be sure, Obama has been preoccupied in recent weeks with the crafting of his State of the Union Address, which was delivered last Wednesday evening.

In fact, a few of Obama's predecessors likewise did not hold press conferences between the Christmas holidays and their respective first State of the Union Addresses, including George W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and John F. Kennedy.

However, most modern presidents have met with the press during this window between the holidays and their first State of the Union Address.

Bill Clinton held seven press conferences during this span, all overseas between his meetings with European and former Eastern Bloc leaders just two weeks before his inaugural State of the Union speech.

Harry Truman and George H.W. Bush each held three press conferences during this time frame, while Jimmy Carter held two, and Ronald Reagan, Lyndon Johnson, and Franklin D. Roosevelt each held one.

Number of Presidential Press Conferences Held Between Christmas Day and President's First State of the Union Address, Hoover through Obama

President	Total
Bill Clinton	7
Harry Truman	3
George H.W. Bush	3
Jimmy Carter	2
Franklin Roosevelt	1
Lyndon Johnson	1
Dwight Eisenhower	0
John Kennedy	0
Richard Nixon	0
Gerald Ford	0
George W. Bush	0
Barack Obama	0
Herbert Hoover	N/A

Note: Hoover gave his first State of the Union Address prior to the Christmas holidays, on December 3, 1929. Data from the American Presidency Project compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, while President Obama has held the sixth most press conferences (27) through his first year in office of the 14 presidents since Hoover, he has held the fourth fewest solo press conferences (11).

Part of the reason Obama has held so few solo press conferences is because of his extensive travels abroad. Obama has held more press conferences outside the United States (17) than any other president during their first year in the Oval Office.

Sixty-three percent of Obama's press conferences in his first term were jointly held with other world leaders - tied for the largest percentage (63 percent) with George W. Bush.

Only George W. Bush (5), Ronald Reagan (7), and Richard Nixon (8) held fewer solo press conferences through their first year in office.

Reagan, of course, spent part of his first year recuperating from the assassination attempt that was made on his life in early spring of 1981.

George W. Bush's lack of press conferences early in his administration was also of little surprise in light of the 'bristly' relationship he was viewed to have with the press corps.

Barack Obama, however, was considered by many throughout most of his presidential campaign, as well as the early months of his presidency, to have had a 'love affair' with the media - viewed, by some of his critics, as a masterful marionette pulling the strings (and sometimes the heart strings) of sympathetic journalists.

And yet, as Obama's poll numbers dropped - so too have the number of his media availabilities.

The number of Obama press conferences declined sharply in the second half of his first term in office - as his polling numbers fell from the high 60s on Inauguration Day, to the low 60s by early summer, to the low 50s by mid-August, to occasionally below 50 percent thereafter.

In fact, 19 of Obama's 27 press conferences took place during his first six months in office, while holding just 8 since July 20th. Across the last 14 presidents, only Richard Nixon (75.0 percent) held a larger percentage of his press conferences during the first six-month "honeymoon period" than has Obama (70.4 percent).

Percentage of Presidential Press Conferences Held During the First Six Months in Office, Hoover Through Obama

President	First 6 months	Next 6 months	Total	% First
Richard Nixon	6	2	8	75.0
Barack Obama	19	8	27	70.4
John Kennedy	13	7	20	65.0
George W. Bush	12	7	19	63.2
George H.W. Bush	18	14	32	56.3
Lyndon Johnson	18	15	33	54.5
Dwight Eisenhower	13	11	24	54.2
Bill Clinton	23	22	45	51.1
Franklin Roosevelt	8	8	16	50.0
Herbert Hoover	46	48	94	48.9
Jimmy Carter	11	12	23	47.8
Gerald Ford	8	10	18	44.4
Ronald Reagan	3	4	7	42.9
Harry Truman	22	37	59	37.3

Data from the American Presidency Project compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, at 94 press conferences, Herbert Hoover met with the media the most during his first year in the Oval Office over the last 14 presidents, followed by Truman with 59, Clinton with 45, LBJ with 33, and George H.W. Bush at 32.

Reagan held the least with 7, with Nixon at 8, and FDR at 16.

Number and Type of Press Conferences Held in First Year of Office by President, Hoover Through Obama

Rank	President	Foreign	Domestic	Joint	Solo	Total
1	Hoover	0	94	0	94	94
2	Truman	0	59	0	59	59
3	Clinton	13	32	31	14	45
4	LBJ	0	33	0	33	33
5	Bush 41	7	25	3	29	32
6	Obama	17	10	16	11	27
7	Eisenhower	0	24	0	24	24
8	Carter	0	23	0	23	23
9	JFK	0	20	0	20	20
10	Bush 43	12	7	14	5	19
11	Ford	0	18	1	17	18
13	FDR	0	16	0	16	16
13	Nixon	0	8	0	8	8
14	Reagan	0	7	0	7	7

Data from the American Presidency Project compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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National Politics Presidency

'Professor' Obama? President's State of the Union Address Notches 4th Lowest Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level Score Since FDR

Text of Obama's Address has a readability score for an average 8th grader - two grades lower than George W. Bush's Addresses and the historical average for modern presidents

Barack Obama's ability as a public speaker since his 2008 presidential campaign has been alternately viewed, often depending on whether or not one is an Obama supporter, along various dyads: being inspirational versus being aloof, intellectualizing versus lecturing etc.

Along those lines, in her first month as a commentator for FOX News, Sarah Palin criticized Obama's first State of the Union Address on Wednesday night as "lecturing" the American public.

Unlike the criticisms hurled at his predecessor, however, few have ever charged that the President, a former senior lecturer in Constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School, has written or spoken too simplistically or catered his words to the lowest common denominator.

However, a Smart Politics analysis of nearly 70 oral State of the Union Addresses since the mid-1930s finds the text of Obama's speech on Wednesday evening to have one of the lowest scores on the Flesch-Kincaid readability test ever recorded by a U.S. President.

The Flesch-Kincaid test is designed to assess the readability level of written text, with a formula that translates the score to a U.S. grade level. Longer sentences and sentences utilizing words with more syllables produce higher scores. Shorter sentences and sentences incorporating more monosyllabic words yield lower scores.

Smart Politics ran the Flesch-Kincaid test on each of the last 68 State of the Union Addresses that were delivered orally by presidents before a Joint Session of Congress since Franklin Roosevelt. Excluded from analysis were five written addresses (Truman in 1946 and 1953, Eisenhower in 1961, Nixon in 1973, and Carter in 1981) and two addresses that were delivered orally, but not by the President himself (Roosevelt in 1945, Eisenhower in 1956). Prior to FDR, most, but not all, such Addresses were delivered in writing.

Obama's Flesch-Kincaid grade level score of 8.8 for his first State of the Union Address was the fourth lowest score since FDR's first Address in 1934.

What this means is that Obama wrote and delivered a speech that incorporated shorter sentences, with those sentences containing shorter words, than nearly every such Presidential Address in the modern era.

Across the more than 75 years of speeches under analysis, the average sentence in State of the Union Addresses is 20.6 words in length.

But the average length of sentences comprising Obama's 2010 address was just 16.6 words in length - or 19.4 percent shorter than average. This also marks the fourth lowest average words per sentence used in State of the Union Addresses during the period under study.

President Obama's comparative brevity in his sentence structure and his frequent use of monosyllabic words can be seen in the following excerpts from his Address:

"Again, we are tested. And again, we must answer history's call."

"Now, let me repeat: We cut taxes. We cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. We cut taxes for small businesses. We cut taxes for first-time homebuyers. We cut taxes for parents trying to care for their children. We cut taxes for 8 million Americans paying for college."

"We have finished a difficult year. We have come through a difficult decade. But a new year has come. A new decade stretches before us. We don't quit. I don't quit."

As such, the speech by 'the professor' stands in contrast to his predecessor, 'the cowboy,' George W. Bush, who was frequently skewered by the left and late-night talk show hosts for his public speaking abilities, his intelligence, and his misuse of the English language.

Bush averaged a Flesch-Kincaid score of 10.4 across his seven State of the Union Addresses - or nearly two full grades higher than Obama's speech. Bush's speeches also averaged 2.4 more words per sentence than Obama, at 19.0.

In other words, the text of George W. Bush's speeches are expected to be understandable (in written form) by an average sophomore in high school, whereas Obama's speech should be understandable by a junior high school student.

Interestingly, George W. Bush's 10.4 Flesch-Kincaid score was also higher than several of his predecessors, including Ronald Reagan (10.3), Bill Clinton (9.5), and his father George H.W. Bush (8.6).

Overall, the Flesch-Kincaid grade level of presidential State of the Union Addresses has decreased in recent decades - with the last five presidents notching the five lowest scores.

John F. Kennedy's Addresses averaged a Flesch-Kincaid grade level of 12.0 - with these speeches averaging 23.8 words per sentence. Dwight Eisenhower was close behind with a Flesch-Kincaid score of 11.9, with Nixon at 11.5, FDR at 11.4 and Gerald Ford at 11.2.

Average Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level for Orally Delivered State of the Union Addresses by President Since FDR

Rank	President	Words per sentence	Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level
1	Kennedy	23.8	12.0
2	Eisenhower	20.5	11.9
3	Nixon	23.5	11.5
4	Roosevelt	24.3	11.4
5	Ford	19.3	11.2
6	Carter	19.7	10.8
7	Truman	18.9	10.5
8	Johnson	20.3	10.4
8	Bush 43	19.0	10.4
10	Reagan	19.6	10.3
11	Clinton	19.0	9.5
12	Obama	16.6	8.8
13	Bush 41	17.4	8.6

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

The only other orally delivered State of the Union Addresses that were written with fewer average words per sentence than Obama's 16.6 average in his 2010 Address, and that scored lower than Obama's 8.8 Flesch-Kincaid score, were:

· George H.W. Bush's final Address in 1992 (7.5, 15.8 words per sentence)
· Lyndon Johnson's 1965 Address (8.6, 16.1 words per sentence)
· Harry Truman's 1951 Address (8.6, 16.3 words per sentence)

Though, with his shorter sentences and shorter words, Obama's Address may have been readable for junior high school students, it is not known if the average 12 and 13 year old was able to sit still through Obama's speech. At approximately 7,300 words, only Bill Clinton spoke more words before Congress and the nation in State of the Union speeches since 1934 (in 1994, 1995, 1999, and 2000).

This is not to suggest that short sentences cannot be effective when craftily composed and delivered effectively.

For example, conservative talk show host Laura Ingraham told FOX News' Bill O'Reilly Thursday evening that her favorite part of Obama's speech was the passage in which the President vowed the United States should seek to achieve and maintain it's #1 status in the world.

Notice how the passage in question is constructed by several short sentences of 5, 6, 8, 4, 12, and 13 words:

"These nations -- they're not standing still. These nations aren't playing for second place. They're putting more emphasis on math and science. They're rebuilding their infrastructure. They're making serious investments in clean energy because they want those jobs. Well, I do not accept second place for the United States of America."

In fact, 31 of the 51 words in the passage above are monosyllabic.

In the end, it is not knowable at this time whether or not Obama's speech was effective in delivering what he wanted to achieve.

Still, it is, at the very least, interesting that 'the professor' should write and deliver a speech that has a readability level two grades lower than those crafted and delivered by 'the cowboy.'

Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level for Orally Delivered State of the Union Addresses, 1934-2010

President	Words per sentence	Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level
Truman 1947	20.1	12.0
Roosevelt 1940	26.3	12.0
Roosevelt 1938	27.0	12.0
Roosevelt 1937	26.1	12.0
Roosevelt 1935	25.5	12.0
Roosevelt 1934	30.3	12.0
Nixon 1974	25.5	12.0
Kennedy 1963	23.8	12.0
Kennedy 1962	23.1	12.0
Kennedy 1961	24.4	12.0
Eisenhower 1960	21.7	12.0
Eisenhower 1957	21.4	12.0
Eisenhower 1955	21.1	12.0
Eisenhower 1954	20.6	12.0
Eisenhower 1953	19.9	12.0
Ford 1977	21.8	11.9
Bush 2005	21.6	11.8
Roosevelt 1939	22.2	11.7
Eisenhower 1958	19.9	11.7
Truman 1950	21.9	11.6
Nixon 1971	23.3	11.6
Johnson 1964	24.1	11.6
Eisenhower 1959	18.9	11.4
Reagan 1983	21.2	11.3
Roosevelt 1936	23.0	11.2
Carter 1980	20.7	11.2
Carter 1979	20.2	11.2
Roosevelt 1941	22.2	11.1
Nixon 1972	22.9	11.1
Nixon 1970	22.3	11.1
Roosevelt 1944	21.5	11.0
Reagan 1988	21.6	11.0
Ford 1975	18.3	11.0
Truman 1949	18.3	10.9
Roosevelt 1943	22.8	10.9
Reagan 1982	20.5	10.9
Johnson 1966	21.5	10.8
Bush 2006	19.2	10.8
Truman 1948	18.4	10.7
Johnson 1969	21.2	10.7
Ford 1976	17.9	10.7
Johnson 1967	19.9	10.4
Bush 2003	18.2	10.4
Johnson 1968	18.9	10.3
Bush 2008	18.4	10.2
Bush 2004	18.8	10.2
Clinton 1999	19.1	10.0
Carter 1978	18.2	9.9
Reagan 1987	18.6	9.8
Reagan 1986	19.8	9.8
Bush 2007	19.3	9.8
Reagan 1985	18.6	9.7
Clinton 1998	19.7	9.7
Roosevelt 1942	20.4	9.6
Clinton 1997	19.5	9.6
Reagan 1984	16.9	9.3
Clinton 2000	18.3	9.3
Clinton 1996	17.7	9.3
Clinton 1995	20.0	9.3
Bush 2002	17.8	9.3
Bush 1991	17.4	9.2
Clinton 1994	18.6	9.0
Bush 1990	18.9	9.0
Truman 1952	18.1	8.9
Obama 2010	16.6	8.8
Truman 1951	16.3	8.6
Johnson 1965	16.1	8.6
Bush 1992	15.8	7.5
Average	20.6	10.7

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:55 PM ¤

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National Politics Presidency

A Content Analysis of President Obama's 2010 State of the Union Address

Emphasis on domestic policy and insertion of non-policy rhetoric stands in sharp contrast to George W. Bush's final State of the Union Address in 2008

President Barack Obama's first State of the Union Address demonstrated a notable shift for the nation's leader, both when compared to the content of the last such Address by his predecessor in 2008 as well as Obama's first Address before a Joint Session of Congress in February 2009.

A Smart Politics content analysis of Obama's speech on Wednesday night and recent presidential Addresses reveals the changing problems facing the United States, the differing priorities of the two administrations, and the current political need for a different rhetorical style for Obama in his Address to the American people.

Obama's first State of the Union Address was substantial, to be sure - approximately 32 percent longer than George W. Bush's final such Address in 2008.

But whereas 56.6 percent of Bush's speech (measured by the number of sentences delivered) focused on the nation's foreign policy challenges, only 13.9 percent of Obama's speech touched on foreign policy issues.

With the United States still reeling from an economic recession - the brunt of which endured by the Obama administration - it is no wonder that 65.3 percent of the President's speech Wednesday night addressed domestic issues, compared to just 35.0 percent for Bush in '08.

The plurality of Obama's speech (74 sentences, 17.2 percent) was spent on economy and jobs, compared to just 4.0 percent for Bush. And rightfully so: back in January 2008 the unemployment rate was just 4.9 percent nationwide, compared to more than double that at 10.0 percent through December 2009.

Back in February 2009, when Obama gave his first Address to Congress outlining his plan to confront America's economic and fiscal crises, the President split the difference with 10.0 percent of his speech on economy and jobs, as unemployment hit 8.1 percent.

President Obama also spent significant time during Wednesday's address on domestic issues such as his new pet issue, freezing federal spending and reducing the national debt (41 sentences, 9.5 percent), and his old pet issue, expanding health care to millions of Americans (32 sentences, 7.4 percent).

But while Bush only spent 19 lines on these two issues in 2008 (5.8 percent), what is more noteworthy is that Obama spent a larger percentage of his February 2009 address on those issues (21.8 percent) than he did last night (16.9 percent).

It is no secret Obama has taken a political beating for his failure to get a health care plan passed through Congress during the first year of his administration (let alone one backed by the American people).

While Obama acknowledged his political struggles, there was a noticeable difference in the content of his speech - compared both to his February 2009 Address and Bush's 2008 Address.

In the post-speech analysis, several cable television political pundits characterized Obama's recent Address as a return of sorts to his stump speeches during his 2008 presidential campaign.

This can be seen by the fact that more than one-fifth of Obama's State of the Union Address was composed of non-policy, 'inspirational' lines - the type of soaring rhetoric that helped win Obama the presidency two years ago.

In total, 20.7 percent of Obama's speech (89 sentences) included non-policy remarks, the plurality of which dealt with the "spirit of America" (31 lines, 7.2 percent), the general 'challenges' the U.S. must face and overcome (23 lines, 5.3 percent), and the need for bipartisanship in Washington D.C. to see that these challenges are met (29 lines, 6.7 percent).

By contrast, only 8.3 percent of Bush's 2008 address was filled with non-policy messages, and only 3 lines touched on bipartisanship.

And in February 2009, soaring high with honeymoon approval ratings and large Democratic majorities in Congress seemingly in his back pocket, only 1.8 percent of Obama's Address was on bipartisanship (5 sentences), and just 13.6 percent on non-policy issues.

Thus, as Obama has witnessed the Republican Party gaining traction with the American people heading into the 2010 election (most recently evidenced by the GOP U.S. Senate special election victory in Massachusetts earlier this month), the President saw the need to speak at great length for the need for bipartisan efforts to get things done in Washington.

The feel-good 'spirit of America' rhetoric that was so prevalent in Obama's speech Wednesday night - perhaps a rhetorical cloak for the administration's failure to enact policies such as health care - were largely absent in his February 2009 address, in which just one line used this language, in his closing paragraph.

The majority of Bush's non-policy messages in January 2008 centered on the importance of individualism (13 lines, 4.0 percent) - a concept not raised in either Obama's February 2009 Address or his 2010 State of the Union speech.

General Policy Areas in Recent Presidential Addresses Before Congress, 2008-2010

Policy area	Bush 1/28/08	Obama 2/24/09	Obama 1/27/10
Domestic	35.0%	76.1%	65.3%
Foreign	56.6%	10.3%	13.9%
Other (non-policy)	8.3%	13.6%	20.7%

Source: Content analysis by Smart Politics.

As for foreign policy, in Bush's 2008 Address, 56.6 percent of his remarks addressed a variety of challenges abroad such as Iraq (16.5 percent), national security (6.4 percent), trade (5.5 percent), terrorism (4.9 percent), and Afghanistan (2.4 percent).

Obama touched on all these issues Wednesday night - but spent less time on each: just 1.4 percent on Iraq (4 sentences), 2.1 percent on national security (9 sentences), 1.9 percent on trade (8 sentences), 2.3 percent on terrorism (10 sentences), and 1.6 percent on Afghanistan (7 sentences).

In total, Obama spent about one-quarter of the amount of his Address on foreign policy (13.9 percent) as did Bush in 2008. This is a slight increase from the amount of sentences spent on foreign policy issues by Obama in his February 2009 Address (10.3 percent).

Other notable differences between Bush's '08 Address and Obama's 2010 Address were the 20 lines Obama spent on controlling lobbyists and trust in government and the 31 lines spent on reforming banking policy and the financial system (topics not addressed by Bush at all in 2008).

Both Bush and Obama devoted approximately the same amount of time in their speeches to taxes (5.2 percent for Bush and 4.9 percent for Obama).

Specific Policies and Messages Raised in Three Presidential Addresses Before Congress, 2008-2010 (number of sentences)

Issue	'08 (Bush)	% '08 (Bush)	'09	% '09	'10	% '10
Economy / jobs	13	4.0	28	10.0	74	17.2
Spending / debt / deficit	11	3.4	35	12.5	41	9.5
Health care	8	2.4	26	9.3	32	7.4
'Spirit of America'	0	0.0	1	0.4	31	7.2
Financial system / banks	0	0.0	50	17.8	31	7.2
Bipartisanship	3	0.9	5	1.8	29	6.7
Challenges (general)	10	3.1	31	11.0	23	5.3
Taxes	17	5.2	8	2.8	21	4.9
Lobbyists / Trust in Gov't	0	0.0	0	0.0	20	4.7
Education	19	5.8	34	12.1	18	4.2
Energy	11	3.4	22	7.8	14	3.3
Terrorism	16	4.9	6	2.1	10	2.3
National security	21	6.4	0	0.0	9	2.1
Trade	18	5.5	1	0.4	8	1.9
Afghanistan	8	2.4	2	0.7	7	1.6
Iraq	54	16.5	2	0.7	6	1.4
Veterans	12	3.7	6	2.1	5	1.2
Civil rights	0	0.0	0	0.0	5	1.2
Technology	4	1.2	1	0.4	4	0.9
Nuclear weapons	0	0.0	0	0.0	4	0.9
Housing	7	2.1	6	2.1	4	0.9
Formal remarks	1	0.3	2	0.7	4	0.9
Foreign aid	12	3.7	0	0.0	4	0.9
Entitlements (Medicare / Social Security)	4	1.2	4	1.4	4	0.9
Freedom / democracy	16	4.9	0	0.0	3	0.7
Iran	13	4.0	0	0.0	3	0.7
Haiti	0	0.0	0	0.0	3	0.7
Transportation	0	0.0	4	1.4	2	0.5
Religion	1	0.3	1	0.4	2	0.5
Environment	0	0.0	0	0.0	2	0.5
Poverty	0	0.0	0	0.0	1	0.2
North Korea	0	0.0	0	0.0	1	0.2
Immigration	10	3.1	0	0.0	1	0.2
Gender	0	0.0	0	0.0	1	0.2
Gay rights	0	0.0	0	0.0	1	0.2
Crime	0	0.0	1	0.4	1	0.2
Foreign relations (general)	0	0.0	3	1.1	1	0.2
Israel	5	1.5	1	0.4	0	0.0
Agriculture	0	0.0	1	0.4	0	0.0
Individualism	13	4.0	0	0.0	0	0.0
Charities	6	1.8	0	0.0	0	0.0
Judiciary	4	1.2	0	0.0	0	0.0
Natural disasters	4	1.2	0	0.0	0	0.0
Stem cells	3	0.9	0	0.0	0	0.0
Cloning	3	0.9	0	0.0	0	0.0
Total	327	100.0	281	100.0	430	100.0

Source: Content analysis by Smart Politics. Speeches coded are George W. Bush's January 28th, 2008 State of the Union Address, Barack Obama's February 24, 2009 Address before a Joint Session of Congress, and Obama's January 27, 2010 State of the Union Address.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:43 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Mike Parry Fends Off Critics, Engbrecht, and Srp to Hold 26th Senate District for GOP

Tri-County District split support among the three candidates; Roy Srp turns in best State Senate performance for IP since 2002

Voters in the Gopher State's 26th Senate District reaffirmed their conservative credentials on Tuesday by reelecting a Republican to fill the seat vacated by 6-term Republican Dick Day.

Republican, former Waseca City Council member, and Democratic lightning rod Mike Parry won with a plurality of 43.0 percent, followed by St. Olaf physics professor Jason Engbrecht with 36.5 percent, and 20.3 percent for Independence Party nominee and 3-term Waseca Mayor Roy Srp.

Parry, who received endorsements by Day, GOP U.S. Representatives Michele Bachmann and John Kline, as well as Governor Tim Pawlenty, won by over 750 votes despite being made a target by Democrats for controversial posts made on his Twitter account prior to his candidacy.

The vote, however, reflects the trend of the 26th District, as reported at Smart Politics last week, which has consistently voted more Republican than the Gopher State overall since redistricting in 2002 - frequently by double-digit margins.

The DFL had hoped that its moderate success in winning State House races in the 26th District (notching a 4-4 record since 2002 and currently holding both seats in St. Paul) could translate into a pick-up on Tuesday to give the DFL 47 seats for the first time since the 1986 election.

However, a Smart Politics analysis published Tuesday morning revealed that the GOP has far outperformed its DFL opponents in special State Senate elections since partisan ballots began in 1974 - winning 61 percent of such contests and picking up 13 seats compared to just 4 for the DFL. (With each of the DFL pickups coming with the Democratic tsunamis during 2005 to 2008).

Although the 26th District is not divided equally in the tri-county region, each of the three candidates carried a county Tuesday.

· Parry carried a plurality of Steele County's (Owatonna) vote with 46.0 percent, with Engbrecht at 35.1 percent and Srp at 18.7 percent. Steele County accounted for 47.3 percent of all the votes in the District, although it had the lowest average voter turnout with 209 voters per precinct.

· Engbrecht carried a plurality of Rice County's (Faribault) vote by 46 votes over Parry. Engbrecht won 47.1 percent with Parry at 45.8 percent and Srp at just 7.0 percent. Rice County comprised 32.8 percent of the vote on Tuesday, and had the highest average voter turnout with 290 voters per precinct.

· A plurality of Waseca County voters cast its ballots for Srp, the City of Waseca's mayor, with 46.2 percent of the vote, followed by Parry at 31.3 percent and Engbrecht at 22.5 percent. Waseca County voters made up 19.9 percent of the voting electorate in this special election, and averaged 286 voters per precinct.

To Srp's credit, his performance on Tuesday was the Independence Party's best showing in a State Senate election since 2002 and the 4th best showing since 2000 when the IP bolted from the national Reform Party.

In the 2006 general election, the best showing by an IP candidate in a Senate race was 17.8 percent, by Kevin Kelleher.

The three candidates who turned in better performances than Srp in 2002 were Sheila Kiscaden in District 30 (at 41.6 percent, winning the race), Sherry Butcher in District 42 (at 30.1 percent), and Tom Norman in District 6 (at 27.4 percent, but in a two-candidate race won by DFLer Tom Bakk).

As Smart Politics reported last week, the 26th District has showed strong support for the Independence Party over the past decade.

Parry will be up for reelection in November along with the other 66 Senate districts in the Gopher State.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

GOP Has Historically Thrived in Minnesota State Senate Special Elections

Despite recent losses, Republican Party has notched a substantially better record in State Senate special elections than the DFL

On Tuesday, in the Owatonna-Waseca-Faribault region, Minnesota's 26th Senate District will hold an election for the seat vacated by 6-term Republican Dick Day.

The race offers an opportunity for a DFL pick-up, with candidate Jason Engbrecht, or perhaps the biggest Independence Party victory in nearly a decade, with IP nominee Roy Srp.

Republicans, meanwhile, attempt to hold serve with candidate Mike Parry and retain a seat in the legislative body that they have failed to control since partisan ballot elections were instituted in 1974.

Towards that end, the GOP is hoping that if past is prologue, it is the long-view of history that is in play, and not the last few years.

For while the DFL has picked up four Senate seats since 2005 (SD 43 with Terri Bonoff, SD 15 with Tarryl Clark, SD 25 with Kevin Dahle, and SD 16 with Lisa Fobbe), these are the only seats in Senate special elections the Party has gained since 1974.

Republicans, however, have picked up more than three times as many Senate seats, and boast a winning percentage in all special election contests of 61.1 percent - more than 26 points higher than their success in general election Senate contests during the past 36 years (34.8 percent).

Here are the numbers:

· Since 1974, there have been 36 special election senate contests on the ballot in the Gopher State: 23 of these were previously held by the DFL and 13 by the GOP going into the election.

· Republicans have picked off 13 of these 23 DFL seats (56.5 percent) and held onto 9 of their 13 own seats (69.2 percent). Up until 2005, the Republicans had not lost a Senate seat in a special election race.

· The DFL, however, has only picked off 4 of these 13 Republican seats during this 36-year span (30.8 percent), and have held just 10 of their 23 seats (43.5 percent).

Victories in General vs. Special Minnesota State Senate Elections by Party, 1974-2008

Party	General #	General %	Special #	Special %
GOP	233	34.8	22	61.1
DFL	434	64.8	14	38.9
3rd	3	0.4	0	0.0

Minnesota Legislative Research Library data compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, the Republican Party is 22 for 36 in special election Senate contests in the Gopher State. This 61.1 percent winning percentage is more than 26 points higher than the 233-437 record it has notched in general election contests since 1974 (34.8 percent).

The DFL, meanwhile, has struggled mightily in special election Senate races. The Party has won just 14 of 36 contests for a winning percentage of 38.9 percent - far below its general election Senate race winning percentage of 64.8 percent (434 victories, 236 losses).

Outcomes in Minnesota State Senate Special Elections, 1974-2008

Year	District	Outgoing	Incoming
2008	63	DFL (Dan Larson)	DFL (Ken Kelash)
2008	16	GOP (Betsy Wergin)	DFL (Lisa A. Fobbe)
2008	25	GOP (Tom Neuville)	DFL (Kevin Dahle)
2005	19	GOP (Mark Ourada)	GOP (Amy T. Koch)
2005	15	GOP (Dave Kleis)	DFL (Tarryl Clark)
2005	43	GOP (David Gaither)	DFL (Terri Bonoff)
2004	37	GOP (David Knutson)	GOP (Chris Gerlach)
2002	67	DFL (Randy Kelly)	DFL (Mee Moua)
2002	07	DFL (Sam Solon)	DFL (Yvonne Prettner Solon)
1999	04	DFL (David Ten Eyck)	DFL (Tony Kinkel)
1999	18	DFL (Janet Johnson)	DFL (Twyla Ring)
1999	32	DFL (Steve Morse)	GOP (Bob Kierlin)
1999	26	DFL (Tracy Beckman)	GOP (Don Ziegler)
1996	14	DFL (Joe Bertram)	GOP (Michelle Fischbach)
1995	33	GOP (Pat McGowan)	GOP (Warren Limmer)
1994	16	GOP (JoAnne Benson)	GOP (Dave Kleis)
1994	47	DFL (Bill Luther)	GOP (Don Kramer)
1994	31	GOP (Duane Benson)	GOP (Kenric Scheevel)
1994	19	DFL (Betty Adkins)	GOP (Mark Ourada)
1992	42	GOP (Don Storm)	GOP (Roy Terwilliger)
1990	61	DFL (Donna Peterson)	DFL (Carol Flynn)
1990	24	GOP (Glen Taylor)	GOP (Mark Piepho)
1988	48	DFL (Tad Jude)	GOP (Pat McGowan)
1988	37	DFL (Darril Wegscheid)	GOP (Pat Pariseau)
1987	04	DFL (Gerald Willet)	GOP (Robert Decker)
1985	08	GOP (James Ulland)	GOP (Jim Gustafson)
1981	20	DFL (Jim Nichols)	GOP (Randy Kamrath)
1980	16	DFL (Ed Schrom)	GOP (Ben Omann)
1980	66	DFL (John Chenoweth)	GOP (Emery Barrette)
1979	55	DFL (Eugene Stokowski)	DFL (Anne Stokowski)
1979	41	DFL (Robert Lewis)	DFL (Irving Stern)
1978	13	DFL (Win Borden)	GOP (David Rued)
1977	49	DFL (John Milton)	GOP (Delores Knaak)
1977	21	DFL (Alec Olson)	DFL (A. O. Setzepfandt)
1975	33	GOP (Harold Krieger)	GOP (Nancy Brataas)
1974	36	DFL (Jim Lord)	DFL (Robert Schmitz)

Party pick-ups in bold. Minnesota Legislative Research Library data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:26 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

Will Republicans Win Murphy's Open 28th Senate District Seat?

Retirement of Senator Steve Murphy Puts DFL Seat in play again for the GOP in '10

Five-term DFL Senator Steve Murphy's announcement last week that he would not seek reelection in the fall puts in serious jeopardy the DFL's ability to hold a blue seat it has held in red territory for a generation.

A Smart Politics analysis of the statewide and district races conducted since redistricting in 2002 finds Murphy's 28th Senate District is not only Republican-leaning in and of itself, but it is decidedly more so than the Gopher State as a whole. GOP candidates have enjoyed a higher margin of victory in the 28th SD (or a lower margin of loss) in 23 of 23 statewide and district races over the last four election cycles.

SD28 may appear on the surface to be a bona fide 'battleground' district, as it was carried by Barack Obama in 2008, by DFLers Mike Hatch (2002) and Lori Swanson (2006) in their respective races for Attorney General, by Rebecca Otto for State Auditor in 2006, and by Amy Klobuchar for U.S. Senate in 2006. The district also registered more DFL than GOP votes for U.S. Representative in 2008 (the 28th is situated in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts).

The GOP, meanwhile, carried the district in the 2004 Presidential race, the 2002 and 2006 gubernatorial contests, the 2002 and 2006 Secretary of State elections, the 2002 and 2008 U.S. Senate races, and the 2002 election for State Auditor.

Republicans have also won 8 of 9 general and special election races for State Representative in the district since 2002, capturing 56.8 percent of all votes for State Representative during this span, compared to 43.1 percent for DFLers. (Buoyed, in part, by former Senator Steve Sviggum's gaudy margin of victories in 2002, 2004, and 2006).

Even with an incumbency advantage, Senator Murphy himself had to struggle with fairly competitive matchups in his successful bids for 4th and 5th terms. Murphy won by just 4.9 points over Gary Iocco in 2002 and by 9.0 points over eventual GOP HD 28B Representative Steve Drazkowski during the first Democratic tsunami year of 2006.

Moreover, Republicans have consistently fared much better in the 28th than they have statewide across all offices:

· In presidential races, George W. Bush performed +6.6 points better against John Kerry in the 28th district than he did statewide. And while McCain lost the district in 2008, he performed 8.5 points better than his statewide margin of loss.

· In U.S. Senate contests, Republican Norm Coleman's margin of victory in the 28th was 2.9 points larger in 2002 than his statewide victory and 4.5 points better in his 2008 loss. In 2006, GOPer Mark Kennedy lost the 28th district by 5.4 fewer points than he did the Gopher State overall.

· In gubernatorial contests, Tim Pawlenty carried the district in both 2002 and 2006, and performed 8.3 points better against the DFL than his statewide margin in 2002 and 7.1 points better in 2006.

· Likewise, GOP candidates for Secretary of State (+2.6, +7.6), Attorney General (+5.2, +5.5), and State Auditor (+2.4, +5.3) turned in stronger performances against their DFL opponents in the 28th than they did statewide in 2002 and 2006 respectively.

· In general election matchups for State Representative (in HD 28A and 28B), GOP candidates enjoyed significantly better margins against their DFL rivals in SD 28 than they did statewide: +22.0 collectively in 2002, +22.5 in 2004, +19.7 in 2006, and +18.0 in 2008.

· In U.S. House elections, the collective margin of votes for GOP candidates vis-à-vis their Democratic opponents was +17.2 points better in the 28th than statewide in 2002, +22.6 in 2004, +16.5 in 2006, and +13.3 in 2008.

In short, any momentum picked up by the Republican Party in the Gopher State in 2010 should highlight even more strongly the GOP advantage in the 28th SD.

One-term GOP Red Wing Mayor John Howe is currently viewed as the likely GOP nominee for Murphy's open seat.

GOP - DFL Differential by Office in Minnesota Senate District 28 vs. Statewide Margin

Office	2002	2004	2006	2008
President		+6.6		+8.5
US Senate	+2.9		+5.4	+4.5
Governor	+8.3		+7.1
Secretary of State	+2.6		+7.6
Attorney General	+5.2		+5.5
Auditor	+2.4		+5.3
US Representative*	+17.2	+22.6	+16.5	+13.3
State Senator	+1.3		+4.0
State Representative**	+22.0	+22.5	+19.7	+18.0

Data compiled by Smart Politics. * Combines votes in 28th SD for 1st CD and 2nd CD races.** Combines votes in 28th SD for HD 28A and HD 28B. Differential in legislative races determined by using the statewide averages across all candidates for such offices.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 01:00 AM ¤

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Economy and jobs Minnesota Wisconsin

Wisconsin-Minnesota Unemployment Gap Biggest in 22+ Years

Badger State continues to endure biggest jobs crisis in the Upper Midwest during current recession

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development's announcement on Thursday that the Badger State's unemployment rate for December 2009 had increased once again by 0.5 points shines a light on the increasing gap in employment numbers between Minnesota and its neighbor to the east.

The half a percent increase in the jobless rate in Wisconsin to 8.7 percent - while the Gopher State's rate remained flat at 7.4 percent - creates a 1.3 percentage point gap in unemployment between the two states. This is the largest unemployment gap faced by Wisconsin vis-à-vis Minnesota in more than 22 years.

The last time Wisconsin's unemployment rate was 1.3 points higher than in Minnesota was in November 1987 - when the Badger State faced a 6.2 percent jobless rate with the Gopher State at 4.9 percent.

The 0.5-point increase from November to December was the 6th time in the last 14 months Wisconsin has seen its unemployment rate rise by at least 0.5 points. Such an increase had happened only nine times in the preceding 32 years.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has endured four increases of 0.5 percentage points or higher during the last 14 months, but none since February 2009. The Gopher State's jobless rate is also trending down - decreasing or remaining flat in five of the previous six months since June 2009.

Over the past 12 months, Wisconsin's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has risen 47.5 percent - from 5.9 to 8.7 percent, while Minnesota's has increased just 12.1 percent - from 6.6 to 7.4 percent. The national rate has jumped 38.9 percent during this span.

Over the past 34 years, dating back to 1976, the largest gap in unemployment faced by Wisconsin to its neighbor to the west has been 3.0 points, in January 1983, when it had an 11.8 percent jobless rate.

Since 1976, Minnesota has had a lower unemployment rate than Wisconsin in 290 of the past 408 months, or 71.1 percent of the time. Wisconsin has had a lower rate in just 99 of these months, or 24.3 percent of the time. The two states have had the same rate in 19 months (4.7 percent).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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Economy and jobs Minnesota

Minnesota's Unemployment Rate Stays Flat in December

Minnesota's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 7.4 percent in December 2009 - unchanged from November.

The Gopher State's jobless rate has now remained flat or declined in five of the last six months, after reaching a recession-long high of 8.4 percent in June 2009.

Over the past 12 months, Minnesota's unemployment rate is up 12.1 percent. Back in December 2008, the jobless rate was 6.6 percent.

Compared to the rest of the country, Minnesota has been spared the worst of the nation's job crisis. As of November the Gopher State had endured only the second lowest increase in seasonally adjusted unemployment rates across the nation over the past year.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 09:16 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

How Republican is Minnesota Senate District 26?

Republicans in the District have outperformed against the GOP statewide average in 21 of 23 statewide and district races since 2002

The upcoming special election to be held in Minnesota's 26th Senate District next Tuesday to fill the seat of 6-term GOPer Dick Day should ordinarily be heavily favored for the Republican nominee - all the more so considering the notable national shift that has occurred towards the Republican Party during the past year.

But in the first part of Smart Politics' analysis of this special election contest, the independent streak of the 26th district was examined, outlining why the candidacy of Independence Party nominee Roy Srp should be taken seriously by Republican Mike Parry and DFLer Jason Engbrecht.

In today's second part of the series, Smart Politics studies the Republican leanings of the district over the past decade, and finds GOPers in the 26th to have performed better vis-à-vis the Party's statewide margin against the DFL in 21 of 23 statewide and district contests since 2002 - including 12 by double-digits.

First, Smart Politics compared the GOP-DFL differential in the 26th SD to the statewide margin in elections for president (2004, 2008), U.S. Senate (2002, 2006, 2008), and the Constitutional offices of Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Auditor (2002, 2006).

Republican candidates performed stronger in the 26th against the DFL compared to their statewide margin of victory or loss in 12 of these 13 statewide contests.

· Republican candidates for president outperformed their Democratic counterparts in the 26th by 11.7 points in 2004 and 13.0 points in 2008 versus their statewide margin. Both George W. Bush (+8.2 points) and John McCain (+3.2 points) also carried the 26th in their respective elections.

· The performance of GOP U.S. Senate candidates against their DFL rivals in the 26th was closer to the statewide average, but still stronger in the 26th by margins of +3.8 points in 2002, +5.4 points in 2006, and +6.8 points in 2008. Norm Coleman also won the 26th by a 6.8-point margin in 2008.

· In the race for Governor, Tim Pawlenty outmatched his DFL opponents in the 26th over his statewide margin against them by +11.4 points in 2002 and +11.8 points in 2006. Pawlenty actually lost the 26th to Independent Party candidate Tim Penny by 1.7 points in 2002 but won the district outright in 2006 by 12.8 points.

· While DFL Attorney General nominees Mike Hatch and Lori Swanson each carried the 26th in 2002 and 2006, the Republican candidates' margin of loss was 2.0 points smaller in the district than their statewide margin in 2002 and 9.6 points smaller in 2006.

· Republican candidates for State Auditor fared better in the 26th than their statewide margin against their respective DFL counterparts by 2.7 points in 2002 and by 6.3 points in 2006.

· Former Republican Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer won the 26th by 2.0 points in 2002 and 4.2 points in 2006. Kiffmeyer's 2002 performance in the 26th was the only instance since redistricting in a statewide election in which the GOP margin of victory or loss was better for the Republicans statewide than in the 26th (though by just 1.1 points). However, in 2006, Kiffmeyer performed 9.1 points better in the 26th against DFLer Mark Ritchie than her statewide margin.

Smart Politics also calculated the GOP-DFL differentials for district-level races for US Representative (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008), State Senator (2002, 2006), and State Representative (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008) against the statewide averages across all candidates for such offices. (Note: nearly two-thirds of the 26th SD votes in the 1st CD with the remainder in the 2nd CD).

Republican candidates performed stronger in the 26th against the DFL compared to their statewide margin of victory or loss in 9 of these 10 district races.

· The margin of victory (or loss) for Republican U.S. House candidates was 27.2 points stronger in the 26th than statewide in 2002, 31.1 points stronger in 2004, 18.5 points stronger in 2006, and 2.4 points stronger in 2008. Overall, votes for Republican U.S. House candidates outpaced DFLers in the 26th in 2002 (+24.1 points), 2004 (+25.3 points), and 2006 (+8.0 points), but not in 2008 (-17.0 points, owing in part to Tim Walz's incumbency advantage).

· Dick Day won his 5th and 6th terms to his 26th SD seat by 23.7 points in 2002 and 9.1 points in 2006. Those performances were 27.3 and 21.1 points better than GOP State Senate candidates did cumulatively statewide against their DFL foes.

· In the district's two state house races, the cumulative votes cast for GOP candidates vis-à-vis the DFLers was 21.0 points higher than the statewide average in 2002, 8.3 points higher in 2004, 15.7 points higher in 2006, but 3.6 points lower in 2008. The DFL won both seats in 2008, picking up HD 26A.

In short, the GOP has enjoyed a considerable advantage across all offices throughout the decade in the 26th SD.

However, there was some notable slippage for the Republicans in state and federal legislative races in 2008.

This was to be expected in absolute terms - with the DFL getting more raw votes than the GOP - considering 2008 was another Democratic tsunami election year.

However, it also happened in relative terms, when comparing the GOP 26th SD performance against the GOP statewide margins of victory or loss for those offices.

GOP - DFL Differential by Office in Minnesota Senate District 26 vs. Statewide Margin

Office	2002	2004	2006	2008
President		+11.7		+13.0
US Senate	+3.8		+5.4	+6.8
Governor	+11.4		+11.8
Secretary of State	-1.1		+9.1
Attorney General	+2.0		+9.6
Auditor	+2.7		+6.3
US Representative*	+27.2	+31.3	+18.5	+2.4
State Senator	+27.3		+21.1
State Representative**	+21.0	+8.3	+15.7	-3.6

Data compiled by Smart Politics. * Combines votes in 26th SD for 1st CD and 2nd CD races.** Combines votes in 26th SD for HD 26A and HD 26B. Differential in legislative races determined by using the statewide averages across all candidates for such offices.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota Third Parties

Will Roy Srp Help to Upend Mike Parry? The Independent Streak of MN Senate District 26

District has shown strong support for Independence Party candidates over the past decade

In the first part of a series analyzing the upcoming special election to be held in Minnesota's 26th Senate District next Tuesday to fill the seat of 6-term GOPer Dick Day, Smart Politics examines one of the factors that may come into play to thwart the GOP from holding onto one of its 21 seats through November.

The media has documented in depth in recent weeks the comments about Barack Obama and the Democratic Party made on Twitter by Republican nominee Mike Parry, a businessman and former City Council member from Waseca.

But one factor that has not been examined so closely is the strong third-party leanings of the 26th Senate District and how it might impact the race.

Those third-party leanings may come into play in Tuesday's matchup that pitts Parry against DFLer and St. Olaf physics professor Jason Engbrecht and Independence Party candidate and 3-term Waseca Mayor Roy Srp.

· The 26th district, whose main cities include Owatonna, Waseca, and Faribault, was one of the strongholds back in 2002 for Independence Party gubernatorial nominee (and former 1st CD Representative) Tim Penny, who carried the district with 39.7 percent of the vote. Penny received only 16.2 percent of the vote statewide.

· In the 2002 race for Auditor, the Independence Party candidate Dave Hutcheson also cracked double digits in the 26th, winning 10.2 percent of the vote (while winning just 7.7 percent statewide).

· And in the recent 2008 U.S. Senate election, the district also gave a nice bump in support to Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley - who received 20.7 percent of the vote in the 26th SD. Barkley received 15.2 percent of the vote statewide.

Independence Party supporters may be looking for a strong performance by Srp to jump-start the Party as it tries to reclaim its relevance in the Gopher State this fall in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

And why would Srp's appearance on the ballot possibly hurt Parry inordinately more than DFLer Engbrecht?

No doubt Democrats will likely characterize the Srp candidacy as one that may hinder Engbrecht from picking up the seat for DFL. However, as Smart Politics documented back in 2008 in an analysis of state House races - the Independence Party need not make any apologies to the DFL:

A Smart Politics study of 57 Minnesota state House races with IP candidates on the ballot from 2002 through 2006 found that at the district level, the presence of IP candidates on the ballot is correlated with a stronger performance by the DFL and a weaker performance by the GOP.

· In only 4 of these 57 districts did party control of the district flip from the previous election cycle - and in every instance it was from the GOP to the DFL.

· And while the Independence Party chose to run in nearly twice as many districts controlled by the DFL (64 percent) than the GOP (36 percent), the DFL had a stronger performance (measured by margin of victory) in 58 percent of these districts from the previous election cycle.

· The DFL also enjoyed a net gain (and the GOP a net loss) in each of these 3 election cycles in districts with IP candidates: an average DFL net gain of 0.4 points per district from 2000 to 2002, 3.0 points per district from 2002 to 2004, and 3.6 points per district from 2004 to 2006.

In this special election in the 26th on the 26th of January, an argument could be made that Srp may benefit at the margins both from Republicans who were turned off by Parry's controversial comments as well as independents and conservative Democrats who are dissatisfied with the trajectory with which President Barack Obama has taken the Party over the past 12 months.

The 26th SD may not be a Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election, but it is an election political analysts in Minnesota will be watching closely.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:50 AM ¤

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All other states Election 2010 U.S. Senate

Brown Victory in Massachusetts Would End 3rd Longest GOP U.S. Senate Drought in Nation

Only West Virginia and Hawaii have gone more years without electing a Republican to a U.S. Senate seat

With all the momentum seemingly with state Senator Scott Brown in his special election battle with Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, Republicans are on the edge of their seats Tuesday in hopes of winning their first U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts since 1972.

The 38-year drought is currently the third longest for the GOP in the country, along with the state of New Jersey.

Massachusetts and New Jersey voters last elected Republicans Edward Brooke and Clifford Case respectively to the Senate back in 1972. (New Jersey Republican Senator Nicholas Brady was appointed in 1982).

But as Smart Politics documented Monday, a competitive showing, or even a victory for the Republican candidate in the heavily Democratic state of Massachusetts on Tuesday, would not be an anomaly in the annals of U.S. Senate special elections.

Special elections have been approximately 10 points more competitive than full-term seat contests since 1990, and 65 percent of U.S. Senate special elections since 1970 have resulted in a partisan flipping of voter preferences since the last time the seat in question was on the ballot (13 of 20 contests).

Moreover, despite its left-leaning tendencies, the Bay State has elected several Republicans to prominent statewide offices in recent years - notably Governors William Weld, A. Paul Cellucci, and Mitt Romney.

Additionally, state Senator Brown is considered by most analysts to be a good Republican fit "for the state." That is to say, Brown is viewed as being much more liberal than most high profile Republican candidates and officeholders nationwide.

The 38-year U.S. Senate election drought for the GOP in Massachusetts is only eclipsed by the states of West Virginia (54 years, 1956) and Hawaii (40 years, 1970). The Democratic hold on West Virginia might very well end once 92-year old Robert Byrd is no longer on the ballot - Byrd has served 51+ years in the Senate to date.

In the Upper Midwest, North Dakota is tied, along with Maryland, for the 5th longest GOP U.S. Senate election victory drought in the nation at 30 years - with Republicans favored to win the open seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Byron Dorgan this November.

Wisconsin has the 8th longest GOP drought in the country at 24 years. The last Republican elected by the Badger State to the U.S. Senate was Robert Kasten, Jr. in 1986. Kasten was defeated by Democrat Russ Feingold in 1992.

Minnesota is tied for the 19th longest Republican election victory drought in the U.S. at eight years (Norm Coleman, 2002).

Number of Years Since the Republican Party Last Won a U.S. Senate Election by State

Rank	State	Senator	Elected	Years
1	West Virginia	W. Chapman Revercomb	1956	54
2	Hawaii	Hiram Fong	1970	40
3	Massachusetts	Edward Brooke	1972	38
3	New Jersey	Clifford Case	1972	38
5	Maryland	Charles Mathias	1980	30
5	North Dakota	Mark Andrews	1980	30
7	Connecticut	Lowell Weicker	1982	28
8	Wisconsin	Robert Kasten, Jr.	1986	24
9	California	Pete Wilson	1988	22
10	New York	Al D'Amato	1992	18
11	Delaware	William Roth	1994	16
11	Michigan	Spencer Abraham	1994	16
11	Washington	Slade Gordon	1994	16
14	Arkansas	Tim Hutchinson	1996	14
15	Illinois	Peter Fitzgerald	1998	12
16	Montana	Conrad Burns	2000	10
16	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	2000	10
16	Vermont	Jim Jeffords	2000	10
19	Colorado	Wayne Allard	2002	8
19	Minnesota	Norm Coleman	2002	8
19	New Mexico	Pete Domenici	2002	8
19	Oregon	Gordon Smith	2002	8
19	Virginia	John Warner	2002	8
24*	Alaska	Lisa Murkowski	2004	6
24*	Florida	Mel Martinez	2004	6
24*	Iowa	Chuck Grassley	2004	6
24*	Louisiana	David Vitter	2004	6
24*	Missouri	Kit Bond	2004	6
24*	New Hampshire	Judd Gregg	2004	6
24*	North Carolina	Richard Burr	2004	6
24*	Ohio	George Voinovich	2004	6
24*	Pennsylvania	Arlen Specter	2004	6
24*	South Dakota	John Thune	2004	6
34*	Arizona	Jon Kyl	2006	4
34*	Indiana	Richard Lugar	2006	4
34*	Nevada	John Ensign	2006	4
34*	Utah	Orrin Hatch	2006	4
38*	Alabama	Jeff Sessions	2008	2
38*	Georgia	Saxby Chambliss	2008	2
38*	Idaho	Jim Risch	2008	2
38*	Kansas	Pat Roberts	2008	2
38*	Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	2008	2
38*	Maine	Susan Collins	2008	2
38*	Mississippi	Thad Cochran	2008	2
38*	Nebraska	Mike Johanns	2008	2
38*	Oklahoma	James Inhofe	2008	2
38*	South Carolina	Lindsey Graham	2008	2
38*	Tennessee	Lamar Alexander	2008	2
38*	Texas	John Cornyn	2008	2
38*	Wyoming	Michael Enzi	2008	2

* Denotes state in which the Republican Party won its most recent gubernatorial election. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:03 AM ¤

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All other states Election 2010 U.S. Senate

Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: Special Elections Frequently See Flip in Voter Preferences

More than half of U.S. Senate special elections since 1970 have resulted in a partisan flipping of voter preferences

The special election for Massachusetts' U.S. Senate seat is garnering significant national attention for what is perceived as a surprising degree of competitiveness. Massachusetts, one of the most Democratic-friendly states in the country, has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Edward Brooke in 1972.

Most polls show the matchup between Democratic Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley and Republican state Senator Scott Brown a dead heat with Brown surging.

Many Democratic loyalists are explaining away the highly competitive race as a result of poor campaigning by Coakley.

Republicans, meanwhile, see the Senate race as an extension of the national momentum the GOP is experiencing across the country; as evidenced last November when the Party picked up two gubernatorial seats - in Virginia and New Jersey.

However, a Smart Politics historical analysis finds that turnover in special election contests is actually quite common. In fact, since 1970, there has been more turnover than not - with voters changing their partisan preference at the ballot from the last time the Senate seat in question was up for election in 13 of 20 races.

In most of these states, appointments have been made to temporarily fill the U.S. Senate seat in the interim - and frequently such appointees have gone on to win the special election. Since the first popular vote special election in 1914, 22 appointees have won the special election contest.

However, in the case of Massachusetts, the appointee, Democrat Paul Kirk, is not on the ballot.

Overall, the partisan flip-flopping in U.S. Senate special election contests among the electorate has been on the rise, with 65.0 percent of seats flipping since 1970, 48.8 percent flipping since 1942, and 36.2 percent flipping since 1914.

Seven of these 13 partisan shifts in special elections since 1970 have been from Democrats to Republicans (Alaska in 1970, Minnesota in 1978, Washington in 1983, Texas in 1993, Tennessee in 1994, Oklahoma in 1994, and Missouri in 2002), with six from Republicans to Democrats (Illinois in 1970, New Hampshire in 1975, Pennsylvania in 1991, California in 1992, Oregon in 1996, and Georgia in 2000).

(Note: a partisan shift or 'flip' is defined here as a change among the electorate from the last time the Senate seat was on the ballot. Such a flip is not necessarily synonymous with a 'pick-up' in the Senate Chamber, however, as such changes sometimes already occurred after gubernatorial appointments changed the seat from one party to another, with the appointee incumbent then going on to win the special election (e.g. Georgia 2000, Pennsylvania 1991, Washington 1983, Alaska 1970)).

The tightness of the Massachusetts race is also not surprising in light of the fact that special elections have been much more competitive than regular U.S. Senate contests in recent years.

A Smart Politics analysis of the fourteen U.S. Senate special elections since 1990 finds the average margin of victory was 16.7 points, whereas the margin of victory in those fourteen states for full-term U.S. Senate seats was 26.4 points.

Even when pick-ups have not occurred, special elections over the past two decades have resulted in some competitive races for both Democrats in heavily Republican states and vice-versa.

For example, in the heavily Republican state of Kansas, the average margin of victory for full-term U.S. Senate races has been 39.8 points since 1990. However, the 1996 special election race between Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat Jill Docking was decided by only 10.6 points.

And in Mississippi's 2008 special election, Republican Roger Wicker defeated Ronnie Musgrove by 9.9 points. Republicans had trounced Democrats in full-term U.S. Senate contests by an average of 48.1 points since 1990.

Republicans have also made Democrats sweat bullets in heavily Democratic states. For example, in 1990, Democrat Daniel Akaka defeated Republican Patricia Saiki in a Hawaiian special election by just 9.4 points. The average margin of victory by Democratic U.S. Senate candidates in the six elections since has been a whopping 44.4 points.

Given the fact that special U.S. Senate elections are much more competitive than regular Senate races and that voters frequently 'flip' and vote into office the opposite political party from when the Senate seat in question was last on the ballot, it should not be so stunning that the Coakley-Brown matchup is as close as polls suggest heading into Tuesday's election. (Particularly given the current political environment that shows many Democrats struggling nationwide).

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:36 AM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota U.S. House

Minnesota Republicans to End Census Period with Best U.S. House Electoral Record Since 1970s

GOP will reverse four decade-long decline of losing net seats to the DFL each Census period

With Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen dashing the DFL's hopes for a Party record seven seats in the Minnesota U.S. House delegation in 2008, the Republican Party of Minnesota has virtually guaranteed it will string together its best electoral performance in U.S. House races during the current 2002-2010 Census period since the 1970s.

To be sure, the GOP won ugly in 2008. Only 38.1 percent of Minnesotans cast their ballots for Republicans in U.S. House contests in 2008, which was the lowest percentage of ballots cast for GOP U.S. House candidates since the Great Depression (32.5 percent in 1934). Votes for Republican U.S. House candidates had not dipped below the 40 percent mark since the second time FDR was elected president back in 1936.

Still, taking the long view, the electoral map has been rosier for Republicans of late in this Democrat-leaning state in U.S. House contests.

During the 1992-2000 Census period - despite the Republican Revolution that propelled the GOP to take back the U.S. House and score dozens of pick-ups nationwide - Minnesota Republican candidates won only 27.5 percent of U.S. House races (11 of 40 seats).

This was the worst showing in state history for the GOP - dipping past the previous low water mark of 35.0 percent of races set during the previous 1982-1990 cycle (14 of 40 seats).

In the current 2002-2008 Census period, Republicans have won 14 of 32 contests, or a 43.8 percent clip.

Even if the GOP only holds their three seats in what most analysts are projecting to be a banner year at the ballot box for Republicans nationwide this fall, Minnesota Republicans will have won six more seats during this Census period than during the 1992-2000 cycle.

Of course, the power of the Republican Party has fallen significantly in the Gopher State over the past few generations (as it has in neighboring Wisconsin and northern states generally).

Since statehood, Republicans have won 64.4 percent of all general and special election U.S. House races in Minnesota (368 of 571).

During a stretch from the 1860s through the 1900s, the GOP won more than 85 percent of U.S. House seats in Minnesota: 90.0 percent from 1862-1870, 93.3 percent from 1872-1880, 64.3 percent from 1882-1890, 91.4 percent from 1892-1900, and 91.1 percent from 1902-1910.

But from the 1960s through the 1990s, Republicans became mired in a gradual downward spiral - losing more and more elections to the DFL each Census period.

· From 1962-1970 Republicans won 55.0 percent of U.S. House elections in Minnesota (22 of 40).
· From 1972-1980 the GOP won 48.8 percent of such contests (20 of 41) - the first Census period in which they did not win a majority of races.
· From 1982-1990 Republicans won just 35.0 percent of U.S. House races (14 of 40).
· From 1992-2000 the GOP won only 27.5 percent of U.S. House elections (11 of 40).

Republicans still face an uphill battle as they endeavor to once again gain a majority of seats in the state's U.S. House delegation.

The extent to which the partisan leanings of the Gopher State have changed over past generations vis-à-vis the national political landscape can be seen thusly:

Prior to the Republican Revolution of 1994, the Minnesota U.S. House delegation was comprised of a majority of Republicans in 26 of the 27 general elections since statehood in which the Republican P arty won a majority of U.S. House races nationwide.

(In one instance, 1868, there was a tie - with Democrats and Republicans each winning one seat in the Gopher State's then two-seat delegation).

In fact, during these 27 general election cycles (1858, 1860, 1862, 1864, 1866, 1868, 1870, 1872, 1880, 1888, 1894, 1896, 1898, 1900, 1902, 1904, 1906, 1908, 1916, 1918, 1920, 1922, 1924, 1926, 1928, 1930, 1946), Minnesota Republicans won a staggering 160 of the 178 seats, or 89.9 percent. Democrats (and the DFL in 1946) won only 7 seats during these elections, with third parties winning 11 seats.

However, when Republicans controlled the U.S. House after the 1994 election and through the next five election cycles thereafter, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates won only 17 of 48 seats, or just 35.4 percent.

It might be a mistake, however, to assume that the conclusion to be drawn from this data is that significant movements to the GOP nationally are going to have little effect on Republican success in the Gopher State.

No doubt, the DFL staved off losses in the 1990s and 2000s (and will likely continue to do so even if there is a backlash against Democrats in 2010) due to the good will and name recognition long-serving DFLers Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar have amassed in their 7th and 8th Congressional Districts respectively.

Both of these districts will undoubtedly be fiercely competitive once these senior members of the state's U.S. House delegation decide to retire.

Percentage of Minnesota U.S. House Seats Won by Republicans During Each Census Period Since Statehood

Period	GOP	Dem/DFL	Third	Total	% GOP
2002-2008	14	18	0	32	43.8
1992-2000	11	29	0	40	27.5
1982-1990	14	26	0	40	35.0
1972-1980	20	21	0	41	48.8
1962-1970	22	18	0	40	55.0
1952-1960	25	21	0	46	54.3
1942-1950	33	11	1	45	73.3
1932-1940	26	4	15	45	57.8
1922-1930	42	0	10	52	80.8
1912-1920	43	4	4	51	84.3
1902-1910	41	4	0	45	91.1
1892-1900	32	2	1	35	91.4
1882-1890	18	6	1	28	64.3
1872-1880	14	1	0	15	93.3
1862-1870	9	1	0	10	90.0
1857-1860	4	2	0	6	66.7
Total	368	168	32	571	64.4

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:00 AM ¤

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Foreign affairs Minnesota

Klobuchar, Ellison, and Oberstar Issue Press Releases on Haitian Disaster

Minnesota's senior Senator and 5th and 8th CD U.S. Representatives are the only members of state's Congressional delegation to issue statements on the Haitian situation

As of Wednesday evening, only three members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation had issued press releases concerning the earthquake and humanitarian disaster in Haiti - all DFLers: Senator Amy Klobuchar and Representatives Jim Oberstar and Keith Ellison.

While each of these members duly acknowledged the scope of the tragedy and the need for significant aid to the poorest nation in the Western hemisphere, the tone and purpose of their messages were fairly distinct.

Klobuchar focused on what her office is getting done and relayed practical information to her constituents, Oberstar stressed the potential political consequences of the disaster and warned of further consequences if there is a failure to adequately assist the Haitian people, and Ellison sent condolences from himself and his 5th District and emphasized the general need for aid, but without addressing the troubling political undertones.

Senator Klobuchar called the earthquake "a disaster of catastrophic proportions" and expressed her sympathy for the Haitian people. However, the primary focus of Klobchar's message was on practicalities and providing critical information to her constituents.

Senator Klobuchar explained how her office is working with the State Department for the evacuation of American citizens and to help expedite the adoption process of Haitian children to Minnesotans who already had pending adoptions underway. Klobuchar also released the phone numbers, hotlines, and e-mail addresses for concerned Minnesotans who are trying to locate or get in touch with members of their family in Haiti.

Representative Oberstar, who lived in Haiti from 1959-1962 as an English language instructor for students of the Haitian Military Academy, called the earthquake a "human tragedy of unimaginable proportions" and explained the need for strong U.S. involvement both in moral and political terms:

"As the richest nation in the world, we have a moral responsibility to help the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere in a time of such dire need... It is imperative for us to intervene in this crisis to ensure that there will be long-term political stability in the region. Our government has to show that it can partner with the Haitian government to provide services to the people, order amongst the chaos, and to show signs for long-term recovery."

Oberstar revisited the need for a stronger democracy in Haiti as a point of emphasis in his statement:

"This is a pivotal moment for democracy in Haiti. President Rene Garcia Preval has established stability, continuity and trust in government. If, as expected, the Preval government sets the stage for presidential elections for November 2010, and he, as is required under the constitution does not run for reelection, then Haiti can enter an unprecedented period of political stability that will foster economic growth, and investor confidence will come back to the country. Conversely, if the Haitian government fails in this humanitarian crisis, the political turmoil will be unimaginable, and will plunge the country into another decade, or more, of even worse distress."

Oberstar closed with a warning as he explained the need for all nations of the international community to contribute to help ameliorate the crisis in Haiti:

"This is truly a critical moment in the history of the entire Caribbean region. If, over these weeks following the earthquake, the international community does not shore up the government, does not provide the humanitarian assistance and restore the services of government to the people, then there will be an equal political earthquake and collapse."

Oberstar also relayed his message via Twitter and Facebook.

By contrast, Congressman Keith Ellison struck a simpler tone of sympathy and condolences to the Haitian people:

"I extend my heartfelt condolences to the citizens of Haiti. My thoughts and prayers are with those suffering and in pain; those who have lost family members, homes, and their means of livelihood in this disaster."

Ellison also stressed the need for mammoth assistance to Haiti. However, unlike Oberstar, Representative Ellison avoided any reference to the controversial political situation and complicated political history of the small Caribbean nation:

"I join with my fellow Members of Congress in exploring every way possible to most effectively marshal national and international resources to assist our neighbors who had very little - and have lost even that...This quake is going to require a relief effort of historic proportions. The nation's major infrastructure is reported to have been destroyed in the earthquake. I implore the State Department, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Defense Department to use every resource at their disposal to come to the aid of our Haitian brothers and sisters...The good people of the 5th Congressional District of Minnesota and I stand ready to help in any way we can."

As of late Wednesday evening none of the three Republican members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation (John Kline, Michele Bachmann, and Erik Paulsen) had issued press releases on the Haitian disaster, nor had DFL Senator Al Franken, DFL Congressmen Tim Walz and Collin Peterson, or DFL Congresswoman Betty McCollum.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 10:05 PM ¤

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MN Election 2010 Minnesota

From the U.S. Senate to St. Paul: Dayton (and Coleman?) Try to Make History

Pathway from 1 of 100 to 1 of 50 has been steep and narrow for Minnesota politicians

(This report is the seventh installment in Smart Politics' 'Pathway to the Governor's Mansion' Series. Past reports analyzed the political experience, geographic background, ethnic background, age (part 1), astrological signs, and age (part 2) of successful gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota history).

Republican Pat Anderson's announcement on Monday that she was ending her gubernatorial bid due, in part, to the looming candidacy of fellow GOPer Norm Coleman ("The shadow is real," Anderson proclaimed) shines the spotlight even more fully on the will-he-or-won't-he-run former U.S. Senator and Mayor of St. Paul.

Should Coleman enter the race, he would join DFLer Mark Dayton in a quest to become the first Minnesotan ever to be elected U.S. Senator and then be elected Governor of the Gopher State.

Few, in fact, have ever tried such a political venture.

First things first - let's get a technicality out of the way. There has been one Minnesotan in history that served in the Senate and then was elected Governor. However, DFLer Elmer Benson was appointed to his U.S. Senate seat when Republican Thomas Schall died in December 1935. Benson served just 10 months in the Senate and was then elected Governor in 1936.

But only two other Minnesotans have ever received their party's nomination for governor after being elected to serve in the U.S. Senate - and both lost their respective gubernatorial general election contest.

Democrat Henry Rice, who served in the United States Senate for nearly five years from 1858 to 1863, ran for Governor of Minnesota in 1865 - losing by 11.2 points to Republican William Marshall in the midst of 19 consecutive gubernatorial victories by the GOP from 1859-1896.

Approximately 60 years later, Farmer-Laborite Magnus Johnson won a special election to the U.S. Senate in 1923 to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Republican Knute Nelson. Johnson served a little more than 1.5 years in D.C., but lost his reelection bid in 1924. Johnson then ran for Governor in 1926 on the Farmer-Labor ticket, but lost by 18.4 points to GOP incumbent Theodore Christianson. (Johnson had also previously lost the gubernatorial election of 1922 - by 2.1 points to Republican Jacob Preus).

No other former U.S. Senator from the Gopher State has subsequently received their party's nomination for governor.

And while the path has been steep and narrow for Minnesota politicians to go from the U.S. Senate to the governor's mansion, the reverse has been much easier. Four governors of the Gopher State have later gone on to be elected to serve in the U.S. Senate:

· Republican Alexander Ramsey was elected Governor of Minnesota in 1859 and 1861 and was then elected to the U.S. Senate in 1863 and 1869.
· Republican Cushman Davis was elected Governor in 1873 and was subsequently elected to the U.S. Senate in 1886, 1892, and 1898.
· Republican Knute Nelson was elected Governor in 1892 and 1894, resigned in his second term, and was then elected to the U.S. Senate in 1895, 1901, 1907, and by popular vote in 1912 and 1918.
· Republican Edward Thye was elected Governor in 1944 and was then elected twice to the U.S. Senate, in 1946 and 1952 (losing his bid for a third term to DFLer Eugene McCarthy in 1958).

(Two-time DFL gubernatorial victor Wendell Anderson also became a U.S. Senator, but was appointed to the seat to fill the vacancy caused by the election of Democrat Walter Mondale to the Office of Vice President in 1976).

Interestingly, while the U.S. Senate-Gubernatorial pathway is not well-trodden, there have been several governors of the Gopher State who were previously members of the (slightly less elite) U.S. House of Representatives:

· Democrat Henry Sibley, the state's first governor elected in 1857, had served as a Territorial Delegate to Congress both from Wisconsin (1848-1849) and Minnesota (1849-1853).
· Republican Governor Alexander Ramsey had previously served as a U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania as a Whig in 1842 and 1844.
· Republican Governor Knute Nelson had also previously been elected three times to the U.S. House - in 1882, 1884, and 1886.
· Democrat John Lind was elected Governor in 1898 and had previously been elected three times as a Republican to the U.S. House (1886, 1888, and 1890) and also subsequently as a Democrat in 1902.
· Democratic Winfield Hammond was elected Governor in 1914 after having been elected to the U.S. House in 1906, 1908, 1910, and 1912.
· Republican Al Quie was elected Governor in 1978 after having served for 11 terms in the U.S. House, winning a special election in 1958 and 10 subsequent elections through 1976.

One wonders if once-rumored gubernatorial candidates Tim Walz of the 1st CD and Michele Bachmann of the 6th CD are aware of this historical oddity that U.S. Representatives have had a much easier time getting elected governor of the Gopher State than its U.S. Senators.

None of the current batch of gubernatorial candidates has served in the U.S. House, although Republican hopeful Phil Herwig ran as the GOP nominee in the 8th CD against Jim Oberstar twice - in 1992, losing by 29.4 points, and in 1994, losing by 31.5 points.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:13 AM ¤

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Crime and punishment Minnesota

How Predictive is the Recent Spate of Minneapolis Homicides?

Episodic events at the beginning of the year should not be cast as signs that the City is in the midst of a violent crime frenzy

After a shocking triple homicide earlier in the week and another gun death Friday evening brought the Minneapolis homicide tally for 2010 to five after just eight days, violent crime has once again became headline news in the local media.

One difficulty that is presented when sensationalistic stories riddle the news media (and the greater community) is how to interpret these tragic episodic incidents and whether or not they are signs of longer-term crime trends the City will face this year.

For example, the temptation is strong to place greater emphasis on these violent crimes because they occurred at the beginning of the year (and decade).

The danger of doing so should be obvious. To use these episodic events as projections for the level of crime Minneapolis will face this year would mean that a crime wave has descended upon the city and its homicide records will be shattered:

· Through the first eight days of 2010, the City of Minneapolis was on 'pace' for 228 homicides for the year, which would be 135 percent higher than the city's all-time record of 97 murders in 1995.

· The City was also on 'pace' for 19 murders in the month of January - nearly double the highest number of murders the city has seen in a month since 1999 (10, in June 2005).

Despite these recent homicides, the truth still is that murder is an extremely rare crime. And when a few homicides take place within a short time span, they tend to present a skewed view of how the long-term trends will likely play out for the City.

In short, because these murders occurred in a convenient 'frame' for the media - the start of a new year - their predictive meaning of how violent crime will play out in Minneapolis in 2010 is elevated over longer, historical trend data that is much more telling.

For example, back in January 2007, Minneapolis experienced a similar situation that it is enduring today, when five murders were committed in the first two weeks of the year.

But did that mean the City was on pace for 10 homicides for the month and a record 122 homicides for the year? Of course not.

In fact, Minneapolis ended up with 2 more murders in January 2007 for a total of 7 for the month.

And the murder 'rate' of 1 out of every 3 days that the City had experienced during the first two weeks of 2007, was followed by a much lower rate of 1 out of every 8.3 days for the rest of the year (42 homicides during the remaining 350 days), for a final tally of 47.

Still, even casting the aforementioned dubious hypothetical projections aside, January 2010 has already tallied the city's 29th highest number of homicides in a month over the past 133 months (11+ years).

Compare that to 2009, when Minneapolis recorded two of the sevens months in which no homicides were recorded during the past 11 years (February and May 2009) and the highest monthly tally of homicides for any month was just three (July, August, and September).

However, in the end, it is much too early to be using these episodic crime events as any sort of prediction of what is to come in 2010 - either formally or through the informal, disquieting suggestions by the if-it-bleeds-it-leads media that crime is starting to spin out of control and that the City of Lakes is under siege by violent criminals.

Just as in 2008 - when the zero murders that were recorded in January did not serve as a sign for what was to come later that year (the City ended up with 39), the first week and a half of January 2010 will similarly not dictate the murder rate for the rest of this year.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:21 AM ¤

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IA Election 2010 Iowa MN Election 2010 Minnesota SD Election 2010 South Dakota WI Election 2010 Wisconsin

Can the GOP Sweep All Four Upper Midwestern Gubernatorial Contests in November?

Republicans have swept nearly half the gubernatorial election cycles in the region over the past 100 years, including 1990 and 1994

This November, the states of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin will each hold gubernatorial elections - the last three of which will be open-seat races.

While Democrats expect to be competitive in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, it has been 48 years since the Democratic Party has won all three of these states in the same election cycle (1962). And it has been 52 years since the Democrats won all four states in the region (1958).

However, it has only been 16 years since Republicans ran a clean sweep through the gubernatorial elections in the Upper Midwest - winning all four states in 1994.

The Republican Party thus has its eyes set on another Upper Midwestern sweep in 2010 - even though the GOP must defend two open seats (South Dakota and Minnesota).

Republicans have historically dominated gubernatorial races in this four state region. Over the past 100 years, the GOP has won 72.0 percent of governorships, or 121 of 168 contests.

Democrats (and the DFL) have won just 39 races in the region (23.2 percent) with third parties winning the remaining 8 contests (4.8 percent).

In fact, since 1906, when Iowa joined Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin in holding its gubernatorial elections in even-numbered years, the GOP has swept through all four states in 17 of 40 election cycles.

Republicans have won each of the four states seven times since the end of WWII: in 1946, 1948, 1950, 1952, 1978, 1990, and 1994. Since 1906 the GOP also won all four states in 1910, 1912, 1916, 1918, 1920, 1922, 1924, 1938, 1940, and 1944.

Democrats were shut out from the winner's circle in each of these 17 election cycles plus an 18th - in 1942 - when the Republicans won Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota and the Progressive Party candidate won the State of Wisconsin.

Democrats, meanwhile, have swept through the region just one time in the last century - in 1958.

(Republicans also failed to win a gubernatorial race in 1932 and 1934 when a mix of Democrats, Progressives, and Farmer-Laborites were elected in the region).

Here is a snapshot of the historical trends over the past 100 years:

South Dakota

In South Dakota, two-term GOP Governor Tim Rounds in term-limited. Even so, the Mount Rushmore State is always the safest bet for a GOP victory in the region. Republicans have won eight gubernatorial elections in a row dating back to 1978, as well as 35 of the last 43 races over the past century (81.4 percent).

The Democratic gubernatorial drought in South Dakota is the longest of any state in the country.

Iowa

The one incumbent on the ballot in 2010 will be Iowa's Democratic Governor Chet Culver. Culver, however, saw his approval numbers dip to as low as the mid-30s this past year (August 2009, SurveyUSA) and may face a formidable opponent in former 4-term Republican Governor Terry Branstad.

The 12-year hold the Democratic Party of Iowa will have had on the governor's mansion at the end of Culver's 1st term is actually the longest the Democrats have ever held the office in Hawkeye State history.

Democrats have never won four consecutive gubernatorial elections in Iowa as they are seeking to do in 2010, having won three in a row on two other occasions: 1932-1934-1936 and 1962-1964-1966.

Overall, the GOP has won 32 of 43 gubernatorial races in Iowa over the past 100 years (74.4 percent) with Democrats winning the remaining 11 (25.6 percent).

Wisconsin

In the Badger State, unpopular Democratic Governor Jim Doyle announced several months ago he would not be on the ballot in 2010, but his absence from the race has not seen quite the avalanche of candidates as seen in Minnesota after Governor Tim Pawlenty's announcement he would not seek a third term early last summer.

Had Doyle run and won, which would have been an extremely unlikely prospect, he would have been the first 3-term Democratic governor in Wisconsin's 160+ year history.

Republicans have won 30 of 42 gubernatorial contests in the Badger State over the past 100 years (71.4 percent), compared to just 9 for the Democrats (21.4 percent) and 3 for third parties (7.1 percent).

Minnesota

The Gopher State has presented Republicans with their stiffest gubernatorial competition in the region. And although most analysts label this open-seat race a 'toss up' the DFL does not have history on its side.

The GOP has won 24 of 40 contests over the past century (60.0 percent), with Democrats and the DFL winning 11 races (27.5 percent), and third parties winning 5 (12.5 percent).

At 23+ years, the DFL also currently has the third longest gubernatorial drought in the nation for the Democrats, behind only South Dakota and Utah.

Moreover, Democrats have had historical difficulties in winning gubernatorial elections in Minnesota with a Democrat in the White House - losing 22 of 25 such races since statehood.

Margin of Republican Victory (or Loss) in Upper Midwestern Gubernatorial Elections, 1906-2006

Year	Iowa	Minnesota	South Dakota	Wisconsin
2006	-9.6	1.0	25.6	-7.4
2002	-8.2	7.9	14.9	-3.7
1998	-5.8	-2.7	31.1	21.0
1994	15.2	29.2	14.9	36.3
1990	21.7	3.3	17.8	16.4
1986	3.9	-13.0	3.6	6.5
1982	6.3	-18.9	41.8	-14.9
1978	17.3	7.0	13.2	9.5
1974	17.1	-33.4	-7.2	-11.1
1972	18.1		-20.0
1970	4.4	-8.5	-9.6	-9.3
1968	8.2		15.4	6.1
1966	-11.1	5.7	15.4	7.4
1964	-36.7		3.4	1.2
1962	-5.2	0.0	12.2	-1.0
1960	4.2	1.5	1.4	-3.2
1958	-8.2	-14.5	-2.8	-7.3
1956	-2.4	-3.2	8.8	3.8
1954	3.1	-5.9	13.4	3.1
1952	4.1	11.3	40.4	25.2
1950	18.6	22.4	21.8	7.0
1948	12.0	8.0	22.2	10.0
1946	15.3	19.3	34.4	20.7
1944	12.4	23.8	31.0	12.2
1942	25.7	13.8	23.0	-13.2
1940	5.6	15.6	10.2	0.9
1938	7.0	25.7	8.0	19.4
1936	-0.3	-22.1	3.2	-17.0
1934	-8.2	-6.9	-17.9	-21.0
1932	-5.6	-18.3	-13.2	-10.6
1930	32.6	-23.0	6.8	36.8
1928	25.6	32.3	-5.6	15.5
1926	43.0	18.4	-7.1	49.7
1924	45.4	4.9	31.0	11.9
1922	41.0	2.1	16.3	65.8
1920	20.1	17.2	30.0	17.2
1918	3.7	14.7	27.1	13.0
1916	24.6	39.1	17.3	15.0
1914	6.1	-3.6	14.9	6.6
1912	0.3	9.4	2.8	3.0
1910	4.4	20.5	22.5	16.0
1908	12.8	-8.0	15.9	17.1
1906	4.8	-26.1	38.6	25.1

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:01 AM ¤

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Economy and jobs Minnesota

Will Pawlenty Have a Minnesota Economic Recovery to Run on in 2012?

Minnesota has endured second lowest increase in unemployment in the country since the 2008 Election

Although he governs a state mired in a budget crisis and continues to be dogged by the media for his aggressive travel schedule, Governor Tim Pawlenty may nonetheless be quietly padding his 2012 resume for his handling of the Gopher State economy.

With new national unemployment numbers for December set to be announced on Friday morning, the most recent state-level statistics show Pawlenty presiding over the second lowest increase in seasonally adjusted unemployment rates across the nation over the past year.

From November 2008 to November 2009, Minnesota's jobless rate has increased 21.3 percent - from 6.1 to 7.4 percent. That marks the second lowest rate of increase across the 50 states, bested only by Vermont's nation low 20.8 percent increase.

During this 12-month span, Minnesota has moved up 8 slots on the list of states with the lowest unemployment rates in the nation. The Gopher State is currently tied for the 16th lowest jobless rate in the country. Back in November 2008, Minnesota was tied for the 24th lowest.

During this same period, the neighboring state of Iowa has dropped from tied for the 7th lowest to 9th lowest while its rates have increased 55.8 percent. Wisconsin has fallen from tied for 18th lowest to 22nd lowest as its rates have climbed 51.9 percent.

South Dakota's unemployment rate remains the third lowest in the country as it was one year ago, although its rates are up 47.1 percent. North Dakota has moved up from #2 to #1 with a jobless rate of just 4.1 percent even though its jobless rate has jumped 28.1 percent during this 12-month period.

Of course, it is conceptually tricky for a governor of any state to boast about a record that has endured significant job losses, just not as bad as most of the country.

Moreover, when Governor Pawlenty took office in January 2003 Minnesota had the 13th lowest unemployment rate in the nation - so the Gopher State is down three spots across the nearly seven years of the Pawlenty administration. Minnesota's unemployment rate has increased 57.4 percent during that span, which is the 24th highest rate of increase in the country.

That said, Minnesota's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate relative to the national rate has improved during Pawlenty's two terms. Back in January 2003, Minnesota's jobless rate of 4.7 percent was 19 percent lower than the nation overall (5.8 percent). Through November 2009, the Gopher State's 7.4 percent jobless rate was 26 percent lower than the country as a whole (10.0 percent).

And as the Republican Party looks for more talking points heading into the 2010 election season, it may want to note that eight of the ten states with the lowest rates of increase in unemployment since November 2008 have GOP governors at the helm: Vermont (#1), Minnesota (#2), Nebraska (#3), Louisiana (#4), Alaska (#6), North Dakota (#7), Mississippi (#9), and Connecticut (#10).

Change in Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate by State, November 2008-November 2009

Rank	State	Governor	Nov '08	Nov '09	Change
1	Vermont	GOP	5.3	6.4	20.8
2	Minnesota	GOP	6.1	7.4	21.3
3	Nebraska	GOP	3.6	4.5	25.0
4	Louisiana	GOP	5.3	6.7	26.4
5	Colorado	DEM	5.4	6.9	27.8
6	Alaska	GOP	6.8	8.7	27.9
7	North Dakota	GOP	3.2	4.1	28.1
8	Maine	DEM	6.2	8.0	29.0
9	Mississippi	GOP	7.4	9.6	29.7
10	Connecticut	GOP	6.3	8.2	30.2
11	Montana	DEM	4.9	6.4	30.6
12	Kansas	DEM	4.8	6.3	31.3
13	Arkansas	DEM	5.5	7.4	34.5
14	New York	DEM	6.3	8.6	36.5
15	Indiana	GOP	7.0	9.6	37.1
16	Arizona	GOP	6.4	8.9	39.1
17	Pennsylvania	DEM	6.1	8.5	39.3
18	Rhode Island	GOP	9.1	12.7	39.6
19	Missouri	DEM	6.8	9.5	39.7
20	Oregon	DEM	7.8	11.1	42.3
21	Hawaii	GOP	4.9	7.0	42.9
22	Tennessee	DEM	7.2	10.3	43.1
23	Virginia	DEM	4.6	6.6	43.5
24	Georgia	GOP	7.1	10.2	43.7
25	North Carolina	DEM	7.5	10.8	44.0
26	Massachusetts	DEM	6.1	8.8	44.3
27	Maryland	DEM	5.1	7.4	45.1
28	South Dakota	GOP	3.4	5.0	47.1
29	Kentucky	DEM	7.2	10.6	47.2
30	Texas	GOP	5.4	8.0	48.1
31	California	GOP	8.3	12.3	48.2
32	Ohio	DEM	7.1	10.6	49.3
33	South Carolina	GOP	8.2	12.3	50.0
34	Washington	DEM	6.1	9.2	50.8
35	Delaware	DEM	5.6	8.5	51.8
36	Wisconsin	DEM	5.4	8.2	51.9
37	Michigan	DEM	9.6	14.7	53.1
38	Nevada	GOP	8.0	12.3	53.8
39	New Jersey	DEM	6.3	9.7	54.0
40	Iowa	DEM	4.3	6.7	55.8
41	Idaho	GOP	5.8	9.1	56.9
42	Illinois	DEM	6.9	10.9	58.0
43	Oklahoma	DEM	4.4	7.0	59.1
44	Florida	GOP	7.2	11.5	59.7
45	New Hampshire	DEM	4.1	6.7	63.4
46	Utah	GOP	3.8	6.3	65.8
47	Alabama	GOP	6.2	10.5	69.4
48	New Mexico	DEM	4.6	7.8	69.6
49	West Virginia	DEM	4.3	8.4	95.3
50	Wyoming	DEM	3.1	7.2	132.3

Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:10 AM ¤

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Campaign finances

Beyond Tim Robbins: Fellow Politicians Not Contributing to Bachmann's 2010 Campaign

Prominent Minnesota politicians once offered financial support early in Bachmann's D.C. career

A bewildered blogosphere was buzzing earlier this week when a report emerged that actor Tim Robbins once gave $500 to Michele Bachmann's inaugural campaign for Congress back in 2006 (as well as to other Republicans).

While the donation of money of any denomination by one of Hollywood's most outspoken liberal actors to a candidate who would soon become one of the most outspoken conservatives on Capitol Hill is undoubtedly titillating for D.C. watchers, a larger story has been overlooked about the dearth of financial support Bachmann has received from high-profile political figures this year, particularly in comparison to many of her colleagues in the Gopher State's U.S. House delegation.

In November of last year, Smart Politics reported that Bachmann stood alone as the only U.S. House member to have received no large donor contributions from notable Minnesota politicians through the first three quarters of the current election cycle.

By contrast, tens of thousands of dollars from political figures have poured into the campaign coffers of the other members of Minnesota's U.S. House delegation and its high profile Congressional hopefuls (like Maureen Reed and Tarryl Clark). Contributions have come from two former U.S. Senators, two former U.S. Representatives, five 2010 gubernatorial candidates, several state legislators, and local governmental officials across Minnesota.

While Bachmann has proved to be an expert fundraiser in general, leading the delegation with nearly $1 million raised this cycle through September 2009, notable current and former public officials are not getting out their checkbooks for the 2-term Congresswoman from Stillwater.

That has not always been the case, however.

For example, back in August 2006 former U.S. Senator Rudy Boschwitz contributed $2,000 to Bachmann's campaign. In her first year in D.C., Boschwitz contributed another $2,300 in November of 2007.

Boschwitz is still actively supporting GOP officeholders - giving $500 to Congressman John Kline last September - but has given no large donor funds to Bachmann over the last two years.

In August 2006 and September 2006 former 6-term Republican Congressman Vin Weber contributed $1,000 each month to Bachmann. Weber followed that up with contributions in July 2007 of $1,000, November 2007 of $2,700, and August 2008 of $300.

But in the current election cycle, while Weber has given money to Republican Congressman Erik Paulsen, he has contributed no large donor funds to Bachmann.

Bachmann also received $1,000 back in February 2008 from former 2006 Minnesota GOP gubernatorial candidate Sue Jeffers.

Meanwhile, Bachmann's two DFL challengers, Maureen Reed and Tarryl Clark, have seen financial support from the likes of former 6-term DFL U.S. Representative and 2002 Independence Party gubernatorial nominee Tim Penny (Reed), former 2006 DFL U.S. Senate candidate Ford Bell (Reed), 2008 3rd Congressional District Independence Party nominee David Dillon (Reed), State Senator Steve Murphy (Reed), former DFL U.S. Senator and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton (Clark), DFL State Senator Terri Bonoff (Clark), former DFL Senate Majority Leader and 2002 gubernatorial nominee Roger Moe (Clark), and DFL State Senator Tony Lourey (Clark).

Whether or not the current lack of financial contributions to Congresswoman Bachmann from fellow former and current political officeholders in Minnesota is a statistical aberration at this point in the 2010 election cycle is not known.

However, there is other circumstantial evidence that Bachmann's rise to stardom in conservative circles may have scared off some political contributors: Smart Politics reported last October that special interest PAC money to Bachmann's campaign is at its lowest level since her Q2 2006 GOP endorsement.

Perhaps the Congresswoman's newfound platform and the prominent airtime she has been given on television to voice her controversial views is indeed giving current and former Minnesota officeholders pause as they consider to which candidates they will open their pocketbooks this election year.

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Posted by Eric Ostermeier at 12:00 AM ¤

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