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Smart Politics is the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance's blog at the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs that is home to timely, pointed, non-partisan discussion of Upper Midwestern and national politics. Smart Politics excavates the key issues driving the 2008 elections as well as provides perspective on statewide and district campaigns in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Unlike most political blogs, Smart Politics' political discussion is driven by thoughtful non-partisan analysis: the Center boasts the largest on-line collection of Upper Midwestern public opinion and historical election results. Smart Politics is an on-line extension of the wide array of public events and programs convened by the Center to promote an informed and engaged citizenry.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Live Blog: Moving Forward On Health Care Reform
2:25 p.m. "Moving Forward On Health Care Reform" is the final panel at the Humphrey Institute's four-day series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Lawrence Jacobs (Director, Center for the Study of Poltiics and Governance, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota). The panelists are:
* U.S. Senator Bob Bennett (R-UT)
* U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN)
* Jeff Korsmo (Executive Director, Mayo Clinic Health Policy Center)
* Steve Mahle (Executive Vice President of Healthcare Policy, Medtronic)
* Grace-Marie Turner (President of the Galen Institute)
2:29 p.m. Senator Klobuchar says Congress needs to address the geographic financial differences in the cost of health care as well as rural health care issues. Klobuchar believes health care will be the number one domestic issue in the next session of Congress.
2:31 p.m. Senator Bennett says that although almost everyone agrees that the health care system is broken, but that it never gets fixed. And, after attempts to fix it, there is usually 'blood on the floor' from the political battle. However, enough time has passed since the Clinton effort that now is the right time to try to get things done, and it is especially pressing because things have "only gotten worse" since then.
2:41 p.m. Senators Bennett and Ron Wyden (D-OR) have written a bill (The Healthy Americans Act), the premise of which is to put control of the services into the hands of the employees and out of the hands of employers to put market forces in play. He adds that Republicans have always - and correctly - opposed universal coverage. He says we have a defacto universal coverage system now and "it's called the emergency room."
2:47 p.m. However, Bennett says we do need to cover everybody - just not in the 'frivilous' and 'expensive' way we do it now through the emergency room system, and that Republicans must realize this. He says this is the "Noah's Ark" bill, as they only accept co-sponsors in pairs: a Democrat and a Republican. The bill now has 16 co-sponsors on the bill, which Bennett believes will demonstrate to the next President that there is a bi-partisan approach to health care that is viable.
2:54 p.m. Bennett believes they have discovered the primary source of cost control in health care: quality. He adds that if every American got their health care in one of the top 3 regions for quality in the country (Salt Lake City, Rochester, MN, and Washington), the cost of health care would be one-third what it is today.
3:06 p.m. Turner says the issue of affordability is a given to any health plan, and the reason we don't have affordable health care is that it is tied to the employer-based system. This linkable must be 'unlocked.' Turner is worried about having an individual mandate for coverage as part of the bill (problems being a shortage in the workforce as well as defining what is a minimum level of coverage and how that level might be too expensive for some people).
3:15 p.m. Korsmo says the jury is still out as to whether the health care work force could absorb the introduction into the health care system of millions of more insured patients, however that a more efficient system could probably handle this increase.
3:25 p.m. Mahle says there are perverse consequences with the current system, whereby there is little incentive, for example, for medical device manufacturers to make products that last longer.
3:26 p.m. Miinnesota's Republican Senator Norm Coleman is one of the co-sponsors of the Bennett-Wyden bill.
Live Blog: Tax Policy at a Crossroads
12:20 p.m. "Tax Policy at a Crossroads" is the 3rd panel today at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Howard Gleckman (Senior Research Associate, Urban Institute). The panelists are:
* Leonard Burman (Director, Urban - Brookings Tax Policy Center)
* Austan Goolsbee (Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and Senior Policy Advisor to Senator Barack Obama)
* John Taylor (Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Economic Advisor to Senator John McCain)
* Joel Slemrod (Paul W. McCracken Collegiate Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy, Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan and Director of the Office of Tax Policy Research)
12:29 p.m. Taylor states McCain does not want to raise taxes on anyone if elected president. McCain's tax play is 'focused on health care' and would provide a $5,000 tax credit to all Americans, including those who are not employed.
12:39 p.m. Goolsbee faults President Bush for trillions of dollars of unfunded tax cuts and thus increased budget deficits. Goolsbee links McCain's tax plan with the Bush plan - adding billions of dollars per year to the budget deficit. On Obama's side, he states Obama will reduce taxes for 95 percent of Americans.
12:44 p.m. Goolsbee says 2/3 of Obama's tax plan goes to people making less than $65,000 per year, and under McCain's plan it is just 6 percent and therefore "following the Bush playbook" and not benefiting "ordinary Americans."
12:45 p.m. Goolsbee is coming out much more on the attack against McCain than Taylor did against Obama.
12:48 p.m. Slemrod states both tax plans would retain most of the Bush tax cuts, but that McCain would collect about $100 billion less per year. McCain also emphasizes business tax cuts and on capital income. Obama would raise more revenues on high income individuals, as in the Clinton era. Obama would collect substantially less from middle-income taxpayers. Slemrod says there is no sign of fundamental tax reform under either plan.
12:52 p.m. Slemrod adds there is no sign either policy will address the long-term fiscal imbalance between the promises the U.S government has made in Social Security and Medicare.
12:54 p.m. Slemrod suggests one rough way to compare the McCain and Obama tax plans is to (imperfectly) compare the Clinton and Bush years.
12:57 p.m. Burman says a major change to the income tax system is going to come soon out of necessity in this country. Action will be forced due to, for example, all of President Bush's tax cuts will expire by 2010, in addition to the unprecented demands that will be placed on the federal government by the retirement of baby boomers.
1:01 p.m. Burman criticizes the two candidates for running health policy changes (e.g. credits) through the tax system. Burman says we need to 1) pay for government and end deficit spending, 2) not rely so heavily on the income tax for our tax system, and instead adopting, for example, value-added taxes, and 3) simply the tax system so it gains more support and does not seem so unfair by seeming to benefit the wealthy, who find loopholes.
1:13 p.m. After Taylor accused Obama of having a tax increases, Goolsbee vehemently disagreed and said Obama's plan has a 'net tax cut.' Taylor quipped that is a 'not tax cut.'
1:15 p.m. Goolsbee takes a shot at McCain's tax plan as a "trickle down" policy.
1:21 p.m. When asked how he would pay for the tax cuts, Goolsbee does not initially give specifics (he does not say from where cuts in spending would come). When pressed he lists: a responsible drawdown in the War in Iraq, ending direct subsidies to high-income farmers and student loan providers, reducing earmarks back to 1994 levels, and ending no-bid contracts.
1:26 p.m. For his part, Taylor relies on an increased revenue stream from economic growth and cutting the growth of spending, rather than listing particular budget cuts. He also wishes to end agricultural subsidies (like ethanol) and earmarks.
Live Blog: Convention Politics and the Fall Elections II
10:15 a.m. "Convention Politics and the Fall Elections" returns as the second panel this morning at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Lawrence Jacobs (Director, Center for the Study of Poltiics and Governance, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota). The panelists are:
* Norman Ornstein (Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute)
* Stuart Rothenberg (Editor and Publisher, The Rothenberg Political Report)
* Vin Weber (Chairman, National Endowment for Democracy and Partner, Clark and Weinstock)
10:23 a.m. The panel is talking about Sarah Palin - her selection and RNC speech. Ornstein says Tim Pawlenty was vetted quite thoroughly -- he was "given the full body cavity search" while Palin was "allowed to walk around the metal detector." Ornstein says McCain has now energized the base with the Palin selection; he needed to do this because McCain was someone originally supported by just about 12 percent of the GOP last year.
10:25 a.m. Palin's position on abortion, creationism, and sex education differ from that of McCain, Ornstein says.
10:28 a.m. Weber says people who know Palin and have worked with her says she is an impressive person to work with. That said, Weber believes if you look at her resume she is short on qualifications. Weber believe Palin can connect with an audience even with those who may not agree with her on the issues.
10:33 a.m. Rothenberg says the Republican Party will be punished 'down ballot' in the 2008 election, but the 'McCain brand' is more popular than the 'Republican brand' and therefore he is running a tight race with Obama.
10:36 a.m. Rothenberg was on the floor last night and says everyone, including moderate Republicans, were electrified by Palin.
10:45 a.m. Ornstein says the McCain campaign is going to quarantine Palin, having her give speeches and talk to local press, but not the national press (and that she will go before Sean Hannity long before she talks to Tom Brokaw).
10:51 a.m. Rothenberg says the types of groups McCain needs to draw into his camp to win the election are: the 2004 Bush coalition, the old white working class Democratic constituency (former Reagan Democrats), older voters, and military voters. Rothenberg says Palin is not going to attract Hillary voters and if he does attract some women it will be older, married women who tend to vote Republican anyway.
10:58 a.m. Ornstein says it will remain a 4 or 5 point race until the debates.
11:10 a.m. Rothenberg says there will be a 10-15 seat gain for the Democrats in this election in the U.S. House and 5-6 seats in the Senate. He says it all has to do with the Republican brand and disastisfaction with Bush.
11:15 a.m. Regarding the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Rothenberg calls it a toss-up, with a slight edge to Coleman. Weber thinks Coleman is going to win, but not by a large margin. Both agree that Franken's high negatives will be difficult to overcome.
11:17 a.m. Weber does not see much impact by third parties in the 2008 presidential race, though if Ron Paul had launched a third party campaign, that would have been another story. Weber says "Ron Paul believes things that Republicans want to believe, but can't."
Live Blog: Democracy and America's Role in the World
8:20 a.m. "Democracy and America's Role in the World" kicks off Day 4 at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by J. Brian Atwood, Dean, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota. The panelists are:
* Henry Kissinger (Secretary of State, 1973-1977)
* Lorne W. Craner (President, International Republican Institute)
* Michael J. Gerson (Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations)
* Richard N. Haas (President, Council on Foreign Relations)
* Vin Weber (Chairman, National Endowment for Democracy and Partner, Clark and Weinstock)
* Kenneth Wollack (President, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs)
8:23 a.m. Atwood begins by stressing the importance of developing democracy around the world. Atwood sits on an advisory board to Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice on this issue. Support for democracy development is eroding, largely due to recent U.S. actions in Iraq, Atwood states; he also says we have harmed our democracy abroad by abandoning habeas corpus at Guantanamo, and 'flirting with torture.' Atwood says we have made little progress at developing democracy in Iran and Egypt and that we "don't even try" in Saudi Arabia.
8:31 a.m. Gerson says there will eventually be a crisis in Egypt, because little effort has been made to give an alternative between authoritarianism and radical Islam that is consonant with U.S. interests. Gerson acknowledges "hyprocrisy is an essential element in the democracy agenda." Haass agrees "inconsistency can be a virtue" in democracy promotion. Haass says democracy should not be a defining principle of our relations with foreign countries. He admits he is a "card carrying realist." He adds we need to think as much about implementation as we do purpose.
8:38 a.m. Craner describes the League of Democracies, which John McCain is backing, though there are limits to its utility. The concept of the League is not to promote democracy, says Weber, it is based on the promotion of shared interests among democracies and addressing other problems.
8:42 a.m. Secretary Kissinger says society is like an organism - there is only a rate of change it can absorb, and if you go beyond that, violence will necessarily result. Kissinger says he saw American go through a period of self-hatred during Vietnam that did not exist in the 1950s. The domestic debate, he adds, was not over Vietnam per se, but whether the U.S. government was essentially one that preferred war to peace.
8:52 a.m. Regarding China, Kissinger says we need to make sure strong Chinese (anti-Western) nationalism isn't substituted for communism.
9:13 a.m. Weber says America cannot come in to these non-democratic countries and 'big foot' its way into promoting democracy. He says democracy-building organizations are always looking for 'on the ground leadership' as opposed to a direct U.S.-led effort which 'is certain to fail.'
9:16 a.m. Regarding Guantanamo and torture issues, Craner says it has hurt our relations with Europe, but that it is hard to make the case it has hurt our efforts in dictatorships. He says he knows of no person seeking greater human rights and democracy in these countries that would not want our help because of Guantanamo and torture. People around the world know we are not perfect; all they ask is for the institutions to develop democracy.
9:32 a.m. Kissinger says the issue of what to do with Saudi Arabia has defeated every presidential administration. He says it is an unviable system, because almost any possible alternative will most likely be worse than the current regime there. Kissinger says a consumer group needs to be formed to help combat the monopoly that defines the oil 'marketplace.'
9:35 a.m. Haass says oil is the biggest constraint to realize American interests around the world.Oil impedes the normal democratic evolution of societies and this will continue so long as the U.S. does not have an energy policy, he adds.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Follow Up: Obama to Disappoint Supporters…By Appearing On The O’Reilly Factor
On July 31st Smart Politics outlined several reasons why Barack Obama should not follow in the footsteps of 2000 Democratic Presidential nominee Al Gore, who declined to grant an interview to Bill O’Reilly on his top-rated cable television news program, The O’Reilly Factor.
I argued that, in addition to Senator Obama stating he would appear on the Fox program back in January during the New Hampshire primary, Obama would gain favor among independents by heading into the ring that is generally considered to be one of the toughest media forums.
Still, despite O’Reilly’s reputation, I maintained politicians are generally, “Treated with respect by the host,” and candidates like Obama, “Will not regret appearing on O'Reilly's show.” While the net benefits might not be substantial for Obama, I noted, “Not appearing will hurt him.”
That analysis inspired several comments on this site from (presumably) Obama supporters, or at least O’Reilly/Fox News detractors, who scoffed at the notion that Obama should grant O’Reilly an interview:
“It would be absolutely stupid for any candidate to go on any show where the host is hostile to them and their agenda.”
“The Democrat has very little to gain and a whole lot to lose from making an appearance. … I just don't see it happening. And for good reason.”
“Actually, there should be no discussion about why or why not Obama should go on Fox News. What would be the point? I say "screw" O'Reilly" and Fox News, too. Fox will manipulate the interview with their editing. No one will hear the real interview. Nothing positive will come out of an interview on Fox News for Obama. CBS and Fox News belong together, both are unfair and definitely unbalanced. End of story.”
“For me, the major problem with Obama going on any FOX program is that it grants the network a sense of legitimacy that it should not be afforded. It does not follow traditional journalistic values and should not be treated as a news organization as such--it should be handled for what it is, which is a mouthpiece of the radical right-wing.”
The disdain the left feels for O’Reilly (and Fox News) is well known by those who traverse the blogosphere, or who, for example, tune in to Keith Olberman’s Countdown show on MSNBC (which airs at the same time as The Factor).
But Obama apparently does not share these sentiments, and, if he does, his actions suggest otherwise, by scheduling this crafty counter-programming event during McCain's big night. (Perhaps Obama realizes what even The Nation understands (the self-described ‘flagship of the left’): that O’Reilly is, “Soft on prominent players – no matter what their politics”).
In this instance, Obama is not playing the tune sung by the left wing of his supporters, and is instead simply playing smart politics: O’Reilly will interview Barack Obama on Thursday, September 4th. The interviews will run in multiple segments starting Thursday night and ending next week.
Live Blog: Transportation and Climate Change: Promoting Sustainable Growth and Prosperity
2:40 p.m. "Transportation and Climate Change: Promoting Sustainable Growth and Prosperity?" is the final panel today at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Ray Suarez (Senior Correspondent, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer). The panelists are:
* Senator Slade Gorton (Former Senator, State of Washington)
* U.S. Representative John L. Mica (R-FL) (Ranking Republican Leader on the U.S. House Transportation and Infrastrcture Committee)
* Chris Coleman (Mayor, City of Saint Paul)
* George W. Bilicic, Jr. (Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.)
* Bruce Katz (Vice President and Director, Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institution)
* Tom Darden (CEO, Cherokee Investment Partners)
2:42 p.m. Katz says our transportation system as a nation is broken, and that we need to revisit the vision and priority it was given in the 1950s.
2:47 p.m. Senator Gorton says one of the problems with effectuating change in transportation policy today is that we do not done a good job of defining and measuring our policy objectives and outputs.
2:50 p.m. Many panelists agree that this conversation about transportation would not have occurred during Democratic and Republican National Conventions in the past. Transportation's relationship to environmental (e.g. climate change) and energy needs (e.g. cost of gasoline, dependence on foreign oil) has heightened its importance on the policy agenda.
2:55 p.m. Congressman Mica agrees that our transportation system is broken, half-joking he was late to the panel because "it is hell getting around the Twin Cities" (and cities across the country, he adds). Mica says we need a national strategic transportaion plan - it needs to be defined. The financing system (based on gasoline taxes) is also broken.
3:01 p.m. Mayor Coleman is skeptical about the role of private markets into meeting the transportation needs of our communities. Senator Gorton agrees, because, for example, mass transit is heavily subsidized and there is no way the private sector would bid on, say, a light rail system which charges a fare of just $1.50.
3:18p.m. Darden says the last group you want to ask when formulating transportation policy is the engineers, who want to fix every problem - not seeing the forest through the trees. Suarez says the last group you want to ask is actually the public, who do not want to pay more taxes, tolls etc.
3:28 p.m. Some panelists - Darden and Bilicic - believe the public will is there to make important transportation policy changes, because they are away of its impact on the global economy as well on quality of life issues.
Live Blog: Building a Better, Safer World: What Would a McCain Presidency Do?
12:40 p.m. "Building a Better, Safer World: What Would a McCain Presidency Do?" is the third panel today at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Nina Easton (Washington Bureau Chief, Fortune). The panelists are:
* Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
* Robert C. (Bud) McFarlane (President, McFarlane Associates, Inc. and former National Security Advisor to President Reagan)
* Ambassador Robert Portman (Former Director, Office of Management and Budget, former United States Trade Representative)
* Ambassador Richard Williamson (Special Envoy to Sudan)
12:55 p.m. Easton says there has been a growing consensus that military means have to be complemented by other means to effectuate other U.S. interests around the world, such as trade interests.
1:01 p.m. Ambassador Williams says the top 3 foreign policy priorities in a McCain administration would be dealing with the growing Iranian challenge in the Middle East and its effect on the resolution of the Iraq War, the growing military strength and trade implications in dealing with China, and the growing threat of Russia.
1:05 p.m. Lieberman jokes that if Hubert Humphrey were still a leader in the Democratic Party he would not be at the (Republican) Convention -- as Humphrey also embodied a 'muscular foreign policy.' Lieberman believes the role of free trade will help millions grow out of poverty, and thus use this 'soft American power' as one of the tools to combat radical Islam. However, Lieberman says there are simply 'evil' people in the world and that they can only be dealt with by 'arousing fear' or dealing with them head on. Lieberman says McCain will also make diplomacy a priority in his administration.
1:07 p.m. It should be noted McCain received a rousing applause (whether out of appreciation or respect) from the audience after Easton referenced Lieberman's speech at the RNC last night.
1:10 p.m. McFarlane talks about the problems with the education of young children and adolecents (especially in Pakistan) and that McCain understands that a decent education system is needed in these countries to give more options to these children to be something other than a day laborer or a terrorist. He says we need to spend "more than the pittance we do right now" in these countries.
1:15 p.m. Lieberman says the U.S. has a much better reputation around the world than people think - especially in Asia - where the U.S. serves as a buffer between nations that do not trust each other. As such, American involvement in the education system across the world would not be met with as much resistance or suspicion as one might think, he says.
1:20 p.m. Portman says that trade is 'the single best weapon we have' to help our foreign policy interests. Portman emphasizes not only the importance of U.S. trade with Islamic countries, but also opening up trade between these nations. Economic freedom 'almost always translates into political freedom,' he adds.
1:23 p.m. Lieberman says the Democratic Party has changed significantly in just eight years on key issues, such as free trade, and that is part of the reason he could be the VP nominee in 2000 and now supporting the GOP nominee in 2008. He adds that McCain knows trade is a very convenient 'scapegoat.'
1:26 p.m. Ambassador Williams says giving advice to McCain on foreign policy is like giving advice to Tiger Woods on golf.
1:29 p.m. Lieberman says prior to 9/11 he would have said the foreign policy challenge for U.S. interests in this century would be our relations with Asia and economic and trade interests with that region. China and Russia are following a foreign policy that is mercantilist and frustrating U.S. interests (e.g. their economic relations with Iran).
1:36 p.m. Lieberman says there does need to be an exit strategy in Iraq, but, with regards to what strategy there are two scenarios: 1) if there was nothing more the U.S. could do to achieve our goal of helping Iraq to become a self-governing country and 2) when the United States achieves that goal.
1:38 p.m. Lieberman closes by touting McCain's extraordinary experience in foreign policy. He says his experience is 'unmatched.'
1:44 p.m. McFarlane says getting off foreign oil is a top priority for John McCain. He says we need to find a new way to run our cars our trucks - and that we have the technology now to do it.
2:01 p.m. McFarlane says McCain has studied Reagan and how to deal with our enemies. He believes McCain will not be jingoistic and overextend our U.S. military by, for example, sending our fleet to Georgia. But, he adds, McCain will take important steps to try to change Russia's behavior, such as denying them entry into the World Trade Organization unless it 'shapes up.' He will focus on the financial vulnerabilities of Russia as a means of soft power to effectuate positive change. McFarlane says the next generation of Russian leaders will be much better, but that this generation - including Putin - are self-serving 'thugs' who act without the interests of the Russian people. He said Russia "is a third world country when you get ten clicks outside of Moscow."
Live Blog: Convention Politics and the Fall Elections
10:05 a.m. "Convention Politics and the Fall Elections" is the second panel this morning at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by former Minnesota Congressman Tim Penny (President, Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation). The panelists are:
* Thomas Mann (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution)
* Ramesh Ponnuru (Senior Editor, National Review)
* Larry Sabato (Direction, Center for Politics, University of Virginia)
* Vin Weber (former Minnesota Congressman, Chairman, National Endowment for Democracy and Partner, Clark and Weinstock)
10:10 a.m. Mann has been struck by the different levels of interest, energy, and fundraising between the two parties, with Democrats holding a huge advantage in this regard. On the Republican side, Mann noted how 1/.3 of the seats were vacant at the Excel Center during last night's Republican National Convention proceedings, compared to the exceedingly high emotion and turnout in Denver at the Democratic Convention where security had to close the doors when the seats were full.
10:19 a.m. Mann says McCain knows the election is more a long-shot than a toss-up.
10:25 a.m. Sabato reveals he just got a text message from the Press Secretary of a "very, very conservative Governor" asking whether the Republican convention is as dismal in person as it appears on television.
10:28 a.m. Sabato says he ran into Governor Pawlenty on the street. After telling the Governor he thought he was going to get the nod, Pawlenty told him he was "One chromosome away from being picked."
10:31 a.m. Sabato says the only thing that gives him pause in predicting an Obama victory is the issue of "racial leakage" (whites who say they will vote for Obama, but just can't bring themselves to do so in the voting booth). He says there will be some of this across America, but he's not sure how much.
10:35 a.m. Ponnuru believes the only thing that is giving McCain a chance in 2008 is that Democrats won back Congress in 2006. If Republicans had remained in control they could not use the drilling issue, for example, as they campaign to solve the issue of gas prices this year.
10:38 a.m. Weber says the model for a McCain victory is in France where Sarkozy was able to win despite an unpopular outgoing president from his own party.
10:44 a.m. Weber says McCain's best chance to win is to make this an ideological contest between himself and Obama. (i.e. "It's not a question of change, but what kind of change.").
10:52 a.m. Mann says if McCain was elected he would not want to continue the ideological wars that have taken place during the last two years of the Bush presidency. He says McCain would rather 'stick it' to his own party and work with the Democrats than to become a loyal partisan.
10:58 a.m. Sabato believes Obama would govern as a moderate or moderate-liberal if elected. Sabato thinks Obama is much more cautious than people realize, and will govern in a way that will be at odds with his #1 National Journal ranking (rankings with which Sabato has great problems).
11:08 a.m. Sabato observes that both McCain and Obama are running traditional campaigns in that they are largely avoiding the press (McCain is no longer running the 'straight talk express').
Live Blog: The Greater Middle East
8:20 a.m. "The Greater Middle East" kicks off Day 3 at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations. The panelists are:
* Michael Barnett (Harold Stassen Chair of International Relations, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota)
* Steven A. Cook (Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations)
* Valie R. Nasr (Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations)
* Meghan O'Sullivan (Senior Fellow and Adjunct Lecturer, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)
8:34 a.m. O'Sullivan, a former National Security Advisor on Iraq for the Bush administration, attributes the rise in U.S. troops and the standdown of the Shia militias in Iraq as two of the key reasons for the improvement on the security front during the past 1.5 years.
8:37 a.m. O'Sullivan says the U.S. underestimates the national identity held by Iraqis -- if asked to describe themselves, she believes most would describe themselves as Iraqis in the top 2 or 3 descriptors. And though Iraqis may not consider themselves Iraqis first, that is not crucial to national stability.
8:42 a.m. In discussing Iran, Nasr says the end goal of their government is to get a committment from the United States to diplomatic recognition. This recognition - ideally for the Iranians - would lead to a normalization of relations, as well withdrawing U.S. troops in the regions, and a guarantee of the current regime's survival. Iranians have the North Korea model in mind of baby-step negotiations that eventually leads, two or three years down the road, that each side has come far enough that the United States is committed to the process.
8:45 a.m. Barnett says a resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would have only a limited impact on the region. Barnett believes what we are facing in Iran and Iraq pales to what we are facing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict -- that he has never been more 'depressed' about that situation in his lifetime.
8:55 a.m. Cook says the regimes in the Middle East are much stronger and flexible than is currently viewed by the U.S., though this stability is not necessarily in the interest in the U.S. (as it produces individuals and groups that wish to harm not only the regime, but also America).
9:04 a.m. Nasr says Pakistan's government could very well collapse and be the first major crisis of the next presidential administration. Nasr believes there could be a total ethnic breakdown and civil war in Pakistan and the Pakistan military may not be up to the task to manage the situation.
9:09 a.m. Haass observes there has been a pushback in Afghanistan against coalition forces due to a resurgence of national identity / pride, just as the U.S. is starting to ramp up its presence there. O'Sullivan says more troops in Afghanistan is not the answer -- the 'Iraq solution' will not translate there. O'Sullivan believes there is no number of U.S. troops that could stabilize that country.
9:15 a.m. Cook says the soar in oil prices has created countries in the Middle East which are "plastic guilded in gold." (e.g. the Gulf Arab states). In these countries there is not a strong call for democracy, which is frequently brought about by a battle for reources, because there are resources a plenty.
9:29 a.m. Nasr and Cook agree that while many governments in the region privately would support the U.S. to put Iran 'under seige,' they would not publicly support this measure, or allow an attack from its borders, because they realize public opinion in the region is very supportive of Iran. Furthermore, when Israel enters into the equation, sectarian differences in the Middle East disappear.
9:34 a.m. When asked why the United States does not take a non-interventionist approach to the Middle East, O'Sullivan claims, vaguely, things would then even get worse in the region. (although she does not explain how things would get worse for the United States per se).
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Live Blog: How Would They Govern?
1:45 p.m. The final panel today at the Humphrey Institute's America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention is "How Would They Govern?" The panel is moderated by Thomas Mann (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution) and Norman Ornstein (Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute). The panelists are:
* Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
* Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
* Lynn Sweet (Washington, D.C. bureau chief for the Chicago Sun-Times and columnist for The Hill)
* Jackie Calmes (Economic Policy reporter at the New York Times)
1:55 p.m. Mann states that Democrats are certain to pick up 3 to 4 seats in the Senate and 10 to 15 seats House in the 2008 election. Therefore, if John McCain were elected president he would face large Democratic majorities in Congress. If Barack Obama was elected he would face great expectations, with unified party government in D.C.
1:58 p.m. Senator Kyl says McCain certainly enjoys working across the aisle with Democrats, and, in fact, enjoys not checking with the Republican leadership when deciding to work with a Democrat on a particular issue. Kyl says McCain would want to reach out to Democrats if elected president - the question is whether the Democratic leadership would want its caucus to work with him.
2:03 p.m. Kyl says there's nothing the public hates more than "wasteful Washington spending," and although earmarks only make up a fraction of government spending, it would be a valuable symbolic fight for McCain to wage if elected.
2:05 p.m. Senator Klobuchar says Obama's top 3 priorities will be health care reform, energy and climate change, and bringing the troops home from Iraq. Klobuchar believes if the Senate picks up 5 or 6 seats, Obama will be able to work with enough Republicans to get to 60 to get some of his bold legislation through.
2:09 p.m. Ornstein says even if Democrats got 60 seats in the Senate, conservative Democrats like Ben Nelson and Independent Joe Lieberman are not 'sure votes' and may peel off to prevent a filibuster-proof majority from being realized. Klobuchar now agrees this will be true on some issues.
2:13 p.m. Kyl warns that Obama would be wise not to push too much of his 'liberal agenda' too soon. The backlash could 'kick you out the door.'
2:17 p.m. Mann states that whether Obama or McCain is elected, both would govern in a way - in terms of their relationship with Congress - that is quite different to George W. Bush. Kyl notes that Bush is not an extreme partisan and he came to Washington hoping to work across the aisle; however, after working with Ted Kennedy on education, "it was all downhill from there."
2:21 p.m. Calmes said when Bush took office he and Karl Rove made a decision not to make the mistake George H.W. Bush made of alienating the base.
2:25 p.m. Sweet says the difference in 2008 is that the next President will be a Senator, and thus the relations with Congress will be different. Sweet also says Obama would not be shy about disappointing his base - he will get to 60 any way he can.
2:29 p.m. Kyl says a McCain presidency would be quite unpredictable - he goes with his instincts quite often. Kyl believes big changes might be possible with McCain, since he has worked with Democrats on significant legislation in the past.
2:33 p.m.Kyl cautions that it is "Hard to overstate how corrosive partisan politics have taken over D.C. ... we all hate it, but it's hard not to participate in it sometimes."
2:35 p.m. Kyl says neither Obama nor McCain would be shy to go over the heads of the folks in Washington and take their agenda to the people - like Ronald Reagan - but unlike George W. Bush.
2:52 p.m. Calmes says the positions McCain has taken in 2008 to hold the base are not those that he truly believes based on his past campaigns and voting record.
Live Blog: Truth Telling in the Media and the Fall Elections
11:40 a.m. The third forum this morning at the Humphrey Institute's America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention is "Truth Telling in the Media and the Fall Elections." The panel is moderated by Kathleen Hall Jamieson (Professor of Communication and Director, Annenberg Public Policy Center). The panelists are:
* Bill Adair (Washington Bureau Chief, St. Petersburg Times and Editor, PolitiFact)
* Brooks Jackson (Director, Annenberg Political Fact Check)
11:45 a.m. Kathleen Hall Jamieson says it is generally believed most ads lie and cannot be relied on because they are pandering and not a forecast for governing, However, Jamieson, says this is not true - with candidate ads being more 'true' than not. Jamieson says officeholders generally true to achieve the main goals as advertised in their political campaigns - though they might not successfully see those goals enacted.
11:55 a.m. Adair says they have investigated 600 political messages at his organization in the presidential campaign; he says the media has been scared into balancing points with counterpoints wishing to appear to be 'fair,' when sometimes 'facts are just facts.'
12:05 a.m. Adair says the biggest deception by the Obama campaign regarding McCain and giving big tax breaks to big oil and drug companies. The biggest deception by the McCain campaign is on Obama's tax plan (the extent to which he will raise taxes).
12:10 a.m. Jackson says Obama misled the public in his Denver speech by claiming to pay for all of his programs through closing tax loopholes. This would not come close, and the truth is Obama would raise taxes on the very wealthy - which he did not mention in the speech. But, Jackson adds, even adding in that component likely will not pay for all of his programs.
12:12 a.m. Jackson agrees with Adair that McCain has misled the public on Obama's tax plan - such as his support for middle-class tax hikes and history of supporting tax increases.
12:15 a.m. Adair explains how his organization has had an impact on candidate's changing their message in the campaign. Obama had stated McCain voted with Bush 95 percent of the time; PolitiFact pointed out the correct number is 90 percent, and that is the number Obama used in his Thursday night acceptance speech. Jackson notes that Obama used to state he "worked his way through college;" now Obama correctly states he got through college "through scholarships and hard work" - a difference, to be sure.
12:23 a.m. Jackson and Adair agree that web ads by campaigns need to be checked just like paid media advertising. They view these as 'electronic press releases' and, since the public will be exposed to the messages (they are frequently aired by tv news programs), they need to be checked.
12:26 a.m. Adair and Jackson admit both organizations have made their own mistakes and thus posted corrections on their sites.
12:30 a.m. When asked why the media refers to Obama as a 'black candidate' when the fact is he is 'bi-racial' or 'mixed race' Adair says that is because Obama refers to himself as a 'black candidate.'
12:35 a.m. Adair also checks mass e-mails, even those that have ridiculous claims, such as "Barack Obama is the anti-Christ." The e-mail said the Book of Revelations said the anit-Christ is a charming man in his late 40s. PolitiFact checked not whether Obama was the anti-Christ, but whether that description was actually in the Book of Revelations. It was not.
Live Blog: What Are Americans Looking For?
10:00 a.m. "What Are Americans Looking For?" is the second forum today in the Humphrey Institute's America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by the always colorful columnist E. J. Dionne (Washington Post, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution). The panelists are:
* Charlie Cook (Editor and Publisher of The Cook Political Report and Political Analyst for the National Journal Group)
* Andrew Kohut (President, Pew Research Center)
* Bill McInturff (Co-Founder, Public Opinion Strategies)
10:20 a.m. Charlie Cook is the first speaker and says understanding public opinion has been a detriment in understanding this presidential election during the last 1.5 years. (e.g. John McCain's campaign was nearly dead one year ago). Cook explains how this is an election that Republicans should not have a prayer to win - more than 4:1 Americans think the country is on the wrong track etc. However, McCain has a different brand than a typical Republican candidates, and that is why he is running a close race with Obama. Cook says the selection of Sarah Palin for VP is either 'brilliant' or 'insane.'
10:25 a.m. Cook says he overestimated the importance of experience in this presidential race. He says Bush's low approval ratings have devalued experience as a necessary component for a party's nominee. This is why Obama has a chance to become President, says Cook. Cook believes McCain wanted to pick Joe Lieberman as his VP -- to really stir things up -- but was told by enough Republicans that a mutiny would ensue, so he did the next best thing he could do to stir things up -- select Palin.
10:30 a.m. Kohut of the Pew Research Center asks whether young voters will indeed turn out and vote for Obama in November at the rates pollsters are projecting. Republican turn-out is also at issue due to indifference towards McCain. Kohut says independents always decide elections, and they are currently about split between both candidates. Independents want to know whether McCain will govern differently than Bush, and they are currently split about 50/50 on this issue.
10:38a.m. Other issues Kohut says are important in this election: McCain's age, Obama's inexperience, and whether race will remain a second tier issue.
10:40 a.m. McInturff address the issues Americans are concerned about in this election compared to a year ago. America's dependence on foreign oil has increased substantially, as have economic issues. McInturff believes, however, that Americans are now starting to get used to $4 a gallon gas. Independents, more than even Democrats, want the U.S. to be less involved around the world - to address the concerns in America first.
10:50 a.m. McInturff finds that in focus groups there is popularity for a more isolationist / Pat Buchanan model of foreign policy, but it receives low support as people do not find it a feasible model.
10:58 a.m. Kohut says the Republican Party has lost its advantage on the issue of terrorism, compared to 2004, but that John McCain has not - he leads Obama by double-digits when asked which presidential candidate could best handle the issue.
11:01 a.m. McInturff explains why independents have a more isolationist streak than Democrats or Republicans. Independents represent approximately 20 percent of the electorate, but do not follow elections as closely as core Democrats or core Republicans, are less education, and make less money. As a result, they do not see the wisdom or benefits of the federal government spending billions and billions of dollars on foreign interests.
11:11 a.m. The panelists are 'skeptical' that the Palin selection will recruit uncommitted 'Hillary Democrats' in a meaningful way.
Live Blog: Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next Administration
8:25 a.m. "Foreign Policy Challenges for the next Administration" kicks off the second day at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations. The panelists are:
* Edward Alden (Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations)
* Kim Holmes (Vice President, Davis Institute for International Studies, Heritage Foundation)
* Michael A. Levi (Fellow for Science and Technology and Director, Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Council on Foreign Relations)
* Benn Steil (Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations)
8:32 a.m. The first topic discussed is immigration. Alden outlines how the U.S. economy has benefitted from the openness of our immigration policy (e.g. half of the patents registered in the U.S. come from immigrants). Alden explains the differences between Barack Obama and John McCain on immigration - notably that it is not a priority for Obama. McCain has stated during the Republican primary he has 'listened to the people' and will now secure the border first before any other immigration reform. Alden states the U.S. cannot have border security without 'comprehensive' immigration reform.
8:38 a.m. Holmes tackles the issue of Russia and its insurgence into Georgia. Holmes states that the Russia has miscalculated the Euro-American response to Russia's actions, which has uniformly condemned the Georgia incident. Holmes says we must make it clear that Georgia will be a member of NATO and to prop up the current Georgian government. Otherwise, Russia will continue to push its 'sphere of influence.'
8:49 a.m. Steil discusses the fragile U.S. and international economy that the next president will inherent - the housing and mortgage markets, soaring inflation, low to negative growth, and the financial credit crunch that institutions are facing internationally.
8:57 a.m. Holmes discusses the changing role of international institutions, such as the United Nations, where he observes U.S. influence has waned. The institution is much more Democratic, as opposed to its initial Western European-centric power distribution that defined the U.N. upon its formation decades ago. Holmes believe the international institutions are not doing what they should be doing (e.g. covering for human rights abuses) and they are not serving U.S. and western European interests like they were intended to do.
9:03 a.m. Levi is not optimistic as to the prospects of global climate agreements being tranlsated into meaningful change, although he does not more nations have been signatories to global climate agreements than trade agreements.
9:08 a.m. Holmes says the U.S. should give a security guarantee to Israel to let it be clear what the U.S. reaction would be if Iran woud use force against Israel. That is Plan B. Plan A is to take out the Iran nuclear program before it reaches operational status - Holmes expects that will be taken out (through Israel as surrogates).
9:21 a.m. Haass outlines the costs the U.S. would face if a military option were implemented against Iran (e.g. Iranian terrorist attacks in Afghanistan and Iraq, reconstitution of the nuclear program, increased national support in Iran for the program etc.). Holmes is confident any reconstitution would be faced with additional Israeli action to counter that threat.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Live Blog: Conservatism Today
2:15 p.m. "Conservatism Today" is the fourth panel convened today at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. Moderating this afternoon's panel is E.J. Dionne (Columnist, Washington Post and Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution). The panelists are:
* Ross Douthat (Associate Editor, The Atlantic)
* Mickey Edwards (Lecturer, Princeton University and Director, Aspen Institute-Rodel Fellowships in Public Leadership)
* David Frum (Contributing Editor, National Review Online and Rsident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute)
2:28 p.m. Douthat examines what has made the white working class vote in increasing numbers for Republicans over the past few decades. Some argue Republicans have 'duped' working class white voters by appealing to a variety of social issues (e.g. gay marriage) while enacting policies contrary to the interests of these working class voters (and not enacting legislation on these social issues in the meantime). Others argue for reasons centering on Republican 'purity' (i.e. limited government) stemming out of the 1964 Goldwater campaign and moving forward through Reagan etc.
2:36 p.m.Edwards notes that the origins of American conservatism were based in the Constitution - the Equal Rights Amendment, giving D.C. a vote in Congress etc. Edwards believes self-identified conservatives today have gotten away from the origins of conservatism. Edwards says consevatives have now become Republicans first and crossed the line so that Repubican members of Congress view a Republican President as the head of their party, not the head of a separate brach of government which they are supposed to check.
2:44 p.m. Former Bush speechwriter Frum states the Republican Party has been in decline since the mid-1990s. Frum notes there has been a collapse of support among the affluent for the Republican Party, in addition to young voters. Frum adds Republicans have also alienated working class Americans in recent years due to economic conditions which has seen a lot of expansion, but little benefit to the working class. Democrats also now have a 5:3 advantage over Republicans on the issue of ethics.
2:55 p.m. Former Minnesota Congressman Vin Weber says Republicans have wrestled with the notion of its principles of limited government with the fact that most people see a role for government in their lives.
3:05 p.m. Edwards says conservatives should be for 'limited' government, but not 'small' government - that is, there is a limited scope of what government should do, but there will be a set of issues that it will have a great role to play. "It is not our job to shut down the government," he adds.
3:15 p.m. Frum states he is very worried about McCain's selection of Palin last week - he hopes McCain did his homework on Palin, but he fears he did not. Frum acknowledges the selection has fired up social conservatives in a good way, but not the country as a whole. Douthat says he blogged about the positives of a McCain/Palin ticket months ago. Edwards believes Palin was selected because McCain had to take a gamble - the race, although polling close, was Obama's to win.
3:25 p.m. Frum believes that McCain's political philosophy and campaign is one of contradictions -- for environmental protection but also for more domestic drilling. Weber says McCain is more like FDR, who also did not campaign on a consistent message.
Live Blog: The Future of U.S. Foreign Assistance
11:45 a.m. The third panel this morning at the Humphrey Institute's America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention is entitled, "The Future of U.S. Foreign Assistancde: Effective Development and National Security. The panel is moderated by Matthew McLean, Vice President, Millennium Challenge Corporation. Panelists for this event are:
* U.S. Representative John Boozman (R-AR), Member U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
* Richard Fontaine, Foreign Policy Advisor, McCain '08
* Jim Kolbe, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States (former U.S. Representative from Arizona)
* Ambassador Andrew S. Natsios, Distinguished Professor in Practice of Diplomacy, Georgetown University
* Raymond Offenheiser, President, Oxfam America
* Vin Weber, Chariman, National Endowment for Democracy and Partner, Clark and Weinstock
* Honourable Michael Wilson, Canadian Ambassador to the United States
11:55 a.m.The United States sends nearly 200 billion dollars in developmental foreign assistance each year, only approximately 25 million of which comes directly from the federal government. The United States contributes more in absolute dollars than any other government, although it ranks among the lowest in terms of GDP percentage (though this does not factor in non-governmental contributions).
11:58 a.m. Offenheiser believes the current system of foreign aid needs critical reforms, as it is not serving its intended purpose or filling the needs of those it is intending to help. The U.S. has no national development strategy, unlike defense and diplomacy strategies, according to Offenheiser. He adds our laws our 'out of place and out of time' and is undermining U.S. leadership in foreign policy (the U.S. Foreign Assistance Act was written in 1961).
12:01 p.m. The American public, however, is a hard sell when it comes to sending more governmental dollars overseas on developmental aid. A poll conducted a few years ago by the Washingotn Post (June 2002) found only 8 percent of Americans believe we were spending 'too little' on foreign aid, with 22 percent stating the U.S. spent about the right amount, and 56 percent stating we spend 'too much.'
12:01 p.m. Former Congressman Kolbe believes we need more transparency in our aid giving, as well as "pruning the tree" of U.S. foreign assistance - less earmarks and more streamlined aid.
12:13 p.m. Ambassador Natsios agrees that the organizational structure of U.S. foreign aid is 'a mess.' Natsios says one of the reasons is the decrease in the number of AID foreign service officers. Foreign aid functions need to be recentralized in Washington, D.C. as well as in the field, the Ambassador concludes.
12:16 p.m. Congressman Boorman says the biggest hurdle to foreign aid in D.C. is that there is no constituency for it. Boorman says our aid can go a long way in improving our foreign relations -- in Africa, for example, President Bush was treated 'like a rock star' and America has positive ratings around 70 percent.
12:22 p.m. Former Congressman Vin Weber believes democracy (workers' rights, women's rights etc.) must be central to our foreign affairs strategy, but it must go hand-in-hand with foreign assistance.
12:31 p.m. Canadian Ambassador the U.S. Wilson comments on Canada's policy in Afghanistan and how it gives developmental assistance. Canada has six priorities there including building the security forces, helping government to provide basic services, providing humanitarian services, building Afghan institutions (e.g. elections), and assisting Afghan-led political solutions. Canada has increased its aid to Afghanistan by 50 percent to 1.9 billion. The Ambassador says there can be no developmental aid without security - two Canadian schools have been burnt down by the Taliban.
12:36 p.m. McCain foreign policy advisor Fontaine outlines McCain's record for U.S. aid while in the Senate in recent years. If elected president, McCain would eradicate malaria in Africa, calling for the private sector to match governmental aid. McCain would also be committed to fight world AIDS.
Live Blog: Climate Change and Energy Security
9:45 a.m. The second panel this morning at the Humphrey Institute's America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention is entitled "Climate Change and Energy Security." Moderated by Reid Detchon (Executive Director, Energy and Climate, United Nations Foundation), the panelists are former New York Governor George E. Pataki (Chairman, Pataki-Cahill Group), Robert C. McFarlane (former National Security Advisor to President Reagan, President McFarlane Associates, Inc.), R. James Woolsey (fromer Director of Central Intelligencce under President Clinton, Venture Partner, VantagePoint Venture Partners), and J. Michael Davis (Assistant Laboratory Director, Energy and Environment, Northwest National Laboratory, former Assistant Secretary of Energy under President George H.W. Bush).
9:53 a.m. Bud McFarlane believes the U.S. is in a fix with our dependence on foreign oil, but that in 15 years the U.S. can, not only reduce that dependence with new technologies, but also have a new fleet of cars that will reduce pollution lower than levels required by the Kyoto Treaty.
10:01 a.m. Davis says markets need to be shaped by policy, as they do not care about security interests. Electricity is taken for granted, Davis states, and we need to reshape our way of thinking on the demand side.
10:05 a.m. Detchon introduces Pataki as a 'green Republican.' Pataki says there is no area that is more important for policy to impact markets - and it can do so in a positive way. Pataki believes government needs to create incentives for our transportation and energy sectors.
10:12 a.m. Former CIA Director Woolsey says energy must be as secure as possible, as cheap as possible, and as clean as possible. Woolsey states we need to prepare for malignant (accidental) problems as well as malevolent problems (e.g. terrorists). Regarding oil, 9 out of 10 of the largest oil producing nations (Norway being the exception) are kingdoms or dictatorships. Woolsey says we need to move towards using electricity and flexible fuel vehicles. Brazilians went from 5 percent to 75 percent of its vehicle fleet which are flexible fuel in just two years.
10:25 a.m. McFarlane explains how energy policy and security issues in China explain their lack of support for U.N. resolutions to have meaningful sanctions against Iran as well as their seeming indifference to the crisis in Darfur (where China has significant energy investments in both Iran and Sudan). The same can be said for the Europeans towards Russia.
10:45 a.m. Pataki says we need a consistent national policy on energy. The U.S. should lead by example, Pataki states, in order to get China and India to reduce their own emissions.
10:51 a.m. Woolsey says in the venture capital business there is an incentive to look for new, disruptive, innovative practices. Upwards of 85 percent of such investments fail.
11:01 a.m. McFarlane believes there is hope for Detroit being on the brink of a Renaissance in terms of new technology cars. Woolsey agrees and says the president of GM is committed to having some of its vehilcles run on electricity, flex-fuels etc. in the next few years.
11:12 a.m. Both Davis and McFarlane indicate support for drilling in ANWAR, though this is not the overall focus of their energy strategies discussed today.
Live Blog: Faith and Politics
8:15 a.m. The Humphrey Institute's America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention kicks off this morning with a panel discussing 'Faith and Politics.' Moderated by Krista Tippett, Host and Producer of Speaking of Faith, the panelists are Richard Land (President, Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, Southern Baptist Convention), Steven Waldman (Co-founder, CEO and Editor, Beliefnet.com), and Jim Wallis (Editor, Sojourners).
8:25 a.m. Tippett states that the role of religion in presidential campaigns has been turned on its head in this campaign, with the Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, quite comfortable talking about religion, while the Republican nominee, John McCain not so comfortable.
8:27 a.m. Wallis says religion is no longer a monologue by the religious right -- simply on issues like gay marriage and abortion. He says its now a dialogue also raising issues such as poverty, war etc. Wallis says the religious right is not a monolithic movement.
8:38 a.m. Richard Land says Evangelicals are 'absolutely giddy' over the selection by John McCain of Sarah Palin for vice-president.
8:41 a.m. Wallis says religion has been 'used and abused' at political conventions. In fact, according to a late June CBS poll, nearly half of registered voters nationwide (48 percent) believe it is inappropriate for political candidates to talk about their religious beliefs as part of their political campaigns, while half (50 percent) believe it is appropriate.
8:46 p.m. Waldman says that at the 2004 DNC there was one forum on religion, but in 2008 he said there more than he could attend - at least a dozen. He characterizes the Democrats moving in 'baby steps' towards a pro-life position. Land disagrees -- he says the Democratic platform is now more pro-choice.
8:50 p.m. Wallis says Democrats should make more of an effort make abortion reduction a priority.
8:53 p.m. An August ABC News / Washington Post poll found 54 percent of adults believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 44 percent believe it should be illegal in most or all cases.
9:02 p.m. Wallis says you don't get to say you're pro-life and then start more wars.
9:11 p.m. Waldman says the spread of the lie that Barack Obama is a Muslim (which a double-digit number of Americans believe) has been 'diabolical.'
9:20 a.m. Land believes McCain helped himself with the selection of Palin, although he had been getting a substantial number of Evangelicals in the Republican primaries. Evangelicals had lingering problems with McCain for the McCain-Feingold bill.
9:28p.m. Waldman believes when we look back at this era one of the greatest failings of religious leaders is their failure to come out strongly against the use of torture.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Humphrey Institute to Host Premier Politics & Policy Forum September 1-4
As the Republican National Convention convenes in St. Paul on September 1, the University of Minnesota and the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs is creating the premier forum for independent and respected analysis and commentary during the Convention.
America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention will offer a series of public forums on the presidential election and American politics and a wide range of domestic and foreign policies.
Speakers, panelists, and moderators during the coming week include:
· Former New York Governor George Pataki
· Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and former Senators Trent Lott (R-MS) and Slade Gorton (R-WA),
· U.S. Representatives John Boozman (R-AR), John Mica (R-FL)
· Former CIA director James Woolsey
· Reagan NSA adviser Bud McFarlane
· Ambassadors Andrew S. Natsios, and Honourable Michael Wilson (Canadian Ambassador to the U.S.)
· David Frum, E.J. Dionne, and Ray Suarez of The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer
· Charlie Cook, Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, Larry Sabato, and Stuart Rothenberg
· Notable Minnesota political figures: Mayor Chris Coleman, and former Congressmen Vin Weber and Tim Penny
Seating for forums is limited. Please tune in to all RNC forums through live internet broadcasting beginning Monday morning.
Monday’s schedule:
7:00 AM. Registration – Continental Breakfast
8:00 AM. Welcome and Program Outline
8:15 AM. Panel A: Faith and Politics
· Richard Land, President, Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, Southern Baptist
Convention
· Steven Waldman, Co-founder, CEO and Editor, Beliefnet.com
· Jim Wallis, Editor, Sojourners
· Moderator: Krista Tippett, Host and Producer, Speaking of Faith, American Public Media
9:30 AM. Break
9:45 AM. Panel B: Climate Change and Energy Security
Cosponsored with UN Foundation Better World Fund
· J. Michael Davis, Assistant Laboratory Director, Energy and Environment, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (former Assistant Secretary of Energy under President George H.W. Bush)
· Robert C. (Bud) McFarlane, President, McFarlane Associates, Inc. (former National Security Advisor to President Reagan)
· George E. Pataki, Chairman, Pataki-Cahill Group (former Governor of New York)
· R. James Woolsey, Venture Partner, VantagePoint Venture Partners (former Director of Central Intelligence under President Clinton)
· Moderator: Reid Detchon, Executive Director, Energy and Climate, United Nations Foundation
11:15 AM. Break
11:30 AM. Panel C: The Future of U.S. Foreign Assistance: Effective Development and National Security
Cosponsored with Oxfam America and The German Marshall Fund of the United States
· U.S. Representative John Boozman (R-AR), Member, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
· Richard Fontaine, Foreign Policy Advisor, McCain ‘08
· Jim Kolbe, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States
· Ambassador Andrew S. Natsios, Distinguished Professor in Practice of Diplomacy, Georgetown University
· Raymond Offenheiser, President, Oxfam America
· Vin Weber, Chairman, National Endowment for Democracy and Partner, Clark and Weinstock
· Honourable Michael Wilson, Canadian Ambassador to the United States
· Introductory comments: J. Brian Atwood, Dean, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs
· Moderator: Matthew McLean, Vice President, Millennium Challenge Corporation
1:00 PM. Lunch
2:15 PM. Panel D: Conservatism Today
· Ross Douthat, Associate Editor, The Atlantic
· Mickey Edwards, Lecturer, Princeton University and Director, Aspen Institute-Rodel Fellowships in Public Leadership
· David Frum, Contributing Editor, National Review Online and Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
· Moderator: E.J. Dionne, Jr., Columnist, Washington Post and Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
3:30 PM. Conclude
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Commentary: Why Picking Sarah Palin Was Smart Politics
When I walked into the post office on University Avenue in Minneapolis yesterday, two friendly clerks with whom I’ll occasionally discuss politics exclaimed to me, “You were right!”
Well, not quite. For about two months it is true that I have been telling anyone who asked (including my friends at the local Post Office) that McCain’s smartest choice for Vice-President was Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska.
However, I must confess, that I was not at all certain McCain would give the nod to Palin when I went to bed Thursday evening. Obviously, in retrospect, I should not have doubted McCain’s moxie and, perhaps, his ability to play smart politics.
You see, the choice seemed to be a fairly obvious one once Hillary Clinton’s prospects of securing the VP slot faded quickly after the Democratic primary season ended. In late June 2008, a source of mine who had a source inside the selection process (yes, that would be a seemingly fuzzy source, twice-removed) told me McCain had narrowed his selection down to two candidates – but that such selection between the two was “contingent on which candidate Obama picked.”
What that told me was McCain would select a woman if Obama did not.
In an interview I gave with WCCO-TV earlier this month, I told reporter Jason DeRusha that Obama would be well served to pick Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas as his running mate – thus minimizing the attractiveness to McCain of making Palin his VP nominee. (Who knows who McCain’s “other pick” would have been had Obama gone with Clinton or Sebelius. Perhaps Minnesota’s own Tim Pawlenty?).
Now, as to why Palin is a smart pick for McCain.
Democrats today have vehemently argued that 'disgruntled' Clinton supporters will not vote for a (McCain)/Palin ticket. The most common reason they give is that Palin is staunchly pro-life.
The problem with that argument is striking: if the non-Obama Clinton supporters (many of whom are women) were so concerned with policies, such as abortion, they would have flocked to Obama’s camp long ago. The truth is a segment of these voters have already decided to back McCain, who is pro-life.
The truth is this segment of Clinton supporters (a segment ranging from 20 to 50 percent, depending on which poll you read) were backing Hillary because she was a woman, not because they foremost supported traditional Democratic policies. Some of these Clinton backers were thus probably politically agnostic prior to 2008, but were inspired this time around to support a female candidate for president.
Now, will Palin, as a VP nominee, reel in all of those Clinton supporters for McCain? No. But will she reach enough of them? Perhaps.
Democrats also are not going to gain any traction with the second argument they made against Palin today: playing the ‘inexperienced card.’
The problem with that tactic is not so much because Obama himself is potentially vulnerable to such a charge, but because the independents that McCain wishes to shore up or lure into his camp with the Palin selection are likely to be wooed precisely because Palin is a D.C. outsider and thus necessarily lacks the sort of experience that these Democrats are highlighting. To win over the majority of independents, McCain must reclaim the mantle of the maverick he once wore so proudly, and selecting Palin, the Governor of Alaska, certainly enhances that image. (Western governors are notorious for wearing the maverick reputation on their sleeves – remember those great Bill Richardson ads in the early stages of the Democratic primary?).
Moreover, if Democrats insist experience is so objectively valuable a commodity to a successful presidency, all one needs to consider is how the job performance of modern presidents in their second term is nearly always much poorer and riddled with questionable decision-making after having one full term of presidential experience under their belt. (e.g. Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43).
In an election likely to be decided by a few points, the actions and the debate performances of the presidential candidates themselves will likely be the determining factor – not the VP selection. But, in a dead-even race, McCain’s pick of Palin may just inspire just enough otherwise apolitical Americans, non-partisans, or disillusioned Clinton supporters to get out and vote to write a different chapter in our history books – one in which the ‘first’ is the first female Vice President of the United States.
Friday, August 29, 2008
We Are Not Traitors: Obama Scores Biggest Applause With Right-Wing Rhetoric
Barack Obama’s speech accepting the Democratic Party nomination was largely well-received and accomplished several things he was perceived to need to do:
· Acknowledge Hillary (and Bill) Clinton’s efforts to rally her supporters to his side.
· Provide some specifics as to the blueprint of his presidential agenda.
· Show he can take on John McCain, without completely abandoning his fight against ‘politics as usual’ and his crusade for bringing change to Washington, D.C.
· Appeal to the African-American community by recognizing the historical significance of the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream" speech through a message of unity; that is to say, by not appearing to campaign as a ‘black candidate’ (in fact, MLK was not even mentioned by name once in those passages).
All of these components of Obama’s speech generated a favorable reaction from the large crowd assembled in Denver, to be sure. But what seemed to truly get Democrats on their feet was none other than the sort of fire and brimstone rhetoric that comes straight from the GOP playbook.
Regarding the fight in Afghanistan, although Obama implemented a liberal-friendly euphemism for ‘kill’ (‘take out’) the crowd roared at this hawkish passage:
“I argued for more resources and more troops to finish the fight against the terrorists who actually attacked us on 9/11, and made clear that we must take out Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants if we have them in our sights. John McCain likes to say that he'll follow bin Laden to the Gates of Hell, but he won't even go to the cave where he lives.”
Obama also cited, to a favorable reaction, Democratic presidents in America’s history who were, essentially, “tough guys” when it came to foreign policy:
“We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don't tell me that Democrats won't defend this country. Don't tell me that Democrats won't keep us safe.”
And, finally, in perhaps Obama’s most passion-filled delivery of the evening, he recognized the sacrifices our military makes to keep us safe:
“The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America, they have served the United States of America. So I've got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first.”
Now, all of these statements are far from controversial. Only the smallest fraction of Americans would not want our next president to kill Bin Laden, defend our country, and support our troops.
But these statements were crucial to the Obama campaign even though they were, generally, not the kind of statements Obama used during his primary campaign.
And that is because this was the quintessential ‘general election speech;’ delivered to show independents, conservative Democrats, and liberal Republicans that Obama too can be a ‘tough guy’ – just like a Republican. That is to say, Democrats are not traitors and will defend our country.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
3rd CD: DFL Experiences Historical Bump in Presidential Election Years
Upon 9-term Republican U.S. Representative Jim Ramstad’s retirement announcement in 2007, the DFL knew Ramstad’s open 3rd CD seat would be a competitive race and a potential pick-up for the party in 2008. (The DFL is running Iraqi War veteran Ashwin Madia against Republican State Representative Erik Paulsen).
But the DFL can expect an extra bump in 2008, beyond that which it would normally experience in this year’s open seat battle. That is because for the past 20 years, the GOP margin of victory in the 3rd CD has decreased in every presidential election year from the previous off-year cycle. The consistent uptick for DFL candidates in presidential election years has held even in the face of redistricting, which changes the demographics of districts every 10 years.
· When Mike Dukakis carried the Gopher State in 1988, the DFL picked up 3.6 points in the 3rd CD from their 40.2-point loss in 1986.
· Bill Clinton’s first victory in Minnesota in 1992 found the DFL again picking up 3.6 points from their 34-point loss in the district in 1990.
· When Bill Clinton was reelected in 1996, the DFL picked up 6.6 points from their 46.9-point loss in the district during the Republican Revolution of 1994.
· The DFL picked up 10.6 points during Al Gore’s victory in 2000, after having lost the 3rd CD by 48.4 points in 1998.
· And when Ramstad won his 8th term in 2004, he did so by 14.8 points less with John Kerry carrying the state, compared to Ramstad’s 44.1-point victory in 2002.
Ramstad won the 3rd CD by 29.9 points in 2006, but most pundits now rate the race as a toss-up, even though the GOP has carried the banner of the 3rd CD in the Gopher State in every election since 1960.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Trust in Government Drops By Nearly Half In Minnesota Since 2004
As Minnesotans prepare once again to be at the heart of another competitive presidential election, the Gopher States’ view of government has eroded precipitously during the last four years.
According to the latest Humphrey Institute / Minnesota Public Radio survey, only 28 percent of likely voters believe our government can be trusted to do what’s right ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time.’ Nearly four years ago, in October 2004, a Humphrey Institute poll revealed that half of likely voters in Minnesota trusted the government – a decline of 44 percent.
Today, four times as many Minnesotans believe the government can ‘never’ be trusted (8 percent, double the number from 2004) as those who believe it can be trusted ‘just about always’ (only 2 percent).
Overall, 71 percent of Gopher State residents believe government can be trusted just ‘some of the time’ or ‘never’ – a steep increase from 48 percent in 2004.
This erosion of trust in government is alarming, but should not come as a surprise to those following other trends in public opinion. The latest HHH/MPR poll also shows President Bush, our head of government, holding just a 32 percent job approval rating in Minnesota – down from 51 percent from the October 2004 Humphrey Institute poll.
Moreover, the HHH/MPR poll reveals only 18 percent of likely Minnesota voters believe the country is headed in the right direction; in 2004, more than double that number (42 percent) were optimistic about the direction of the country (Rasmussen, October, 2004).
Despite Minnesotans being overwhelmingly disappointed with our government, our (Republican) president, and the direction of our country, Democrat Barack Obama is still locked in a tight race with John McCain in the Gopher State (as well as nationwide). A great pool of hungry voters thus awaits whichever presidential candidate can inspire optimism about how government will act under his leadership.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Upper Midwesterns Back McCain on Foreign Policy; Domestic Policy Mixed
A series of SurveyUSA polls across the Upper Midwest finds registered voters more confident John McCain can better handle foreign policy issues and immigration, while Barack Obama has the edge on health care. In a surprising turn, Obama ends up with a draw against McCain on economic issues.
The polls, conducted in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin from August 15-17, bolster the conventional wisdom that McCain’s forte is foreign policy. In all three states, registered voters believe the Arizona Senator would do a better job handling the war in Iraq and fighting terrorism.
Despite opposition to the war in Iraq across the Upper Midwest in recent years, McCain’s support for the war – and his steadfast support for the troop surge in 2007 – does not seem to have damaged the GOP nominee. McCain is viewed as better equipped to handle the war in Iowa (49 to 42 percent), Minnesota (46 to 43 percent), and Wisconsin (50 to 41 percent). This is not a good sign for Obama, whose centerpiece foreign policy argument is that he has better judgment than McCain (Obama was opposed to the war back in 2003).
McCain – and Republican candidates generally – have held an advantage over Democrats when it comes to handling the war on terrorism, and the SurveyUSA poll supports that trend. McCain holds a double-digit advantage over Obama in all three states on the terrorism issue: 53 to 36 percent in Iowa, 50 to 36 percent in Minnesota, and 53 to 35 percent in Wisconsin.
On the domestic front, although McCain as recent as early 2007 shared similar views on immigration policy to Obama, the Arizona Senator now holds a clear edge on the issue (McCain has since adopted a more hard-line policy emphasizing border enforcement first, consonant with his Party and Americans overall). McCain holds a double-digit advantage on immigration in Wisconsin (49 to 36 percent), and a somewhat smaller lead on the issue in Iowa (45 to 38 percent) and Minnesota (44 to 37 percent).
To no surprise, Barack Obama holds a very large advantage on the issue of handling health care. Health care was a centerpiece to Obama’s primary campaign victory, and has been an issue Democrats have long held the upper hand against the GOP. McCain has also been taken to task by pundits for his lack of a vision on domestic policy issues. Obama holds a double-digit lead over McCain on health care in Iowa (51 to 33 percent), Minnesota (52 to 37 percent) and Wisconsin (48 to 38 percent).
But when it comes to economic issues, Obama has not been able to leverage the unease Upper Midwesterns are feeling with high gas prices and difficulties with the home mortgage sector under the current Republican administration. Obama holds only a slight advantage over McCain on the economy in Iowa (47 to 43 percent) and Minnesota (46 to 44 percent), with McCain slightly on top in Wisconsin (45 to 43 percent). Pundits have criticized Obama for not mapping out enough specifics in his economic plan.
The SurveyUSA polls confirm that the Upper Midwest is the battleground for the 2008 presidential campaign.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Obama-Biden: Familiar Bedfellows...Though You'd Never Know It
Most of the weekend’s media coverage of Barack Obama’s pick of Joe Biden to be his vice-presidential running mate focused on two competing, though related, angles:
First, that Biden was a good choice because he will shore up Obama’s perceived lack of experience, especially on foreign policy issues; Biden is the current chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
Secondly, commentators (as well as the McCain campaign) have highlighted some telling quotes from Biden during his second presidential bid last year – that Obama is not experienced enough for the White House and that he (Biden) would be honored to run with (or against) McCain for president.
Republicans may – to some degree – also try to make mileage out of Biden’s more trivial verbal gaffes he’s delivered over the years. But those remarks (unlike the ones appearing in the McCain ad) will likely not damage the Obama campaign. The fact that Biden is so affable and generally well regarded – by the media and his fellow Republicans – means it will be pretty easy to dismiss such comments as Biden “shooting from the hip.?
In fact, it is Biden’s easy-going, no-nonsense nature and regular-guy flair that will make him a formidable opponent in the Vice-Presidential debate. Biden’s use of humor and speaking style helps him to mask what should be his biggest weakness as Obama’s runningmate: that Biden is a liberal Senator with a very liberal voting record.
It is well known that National Journal’s 2007 voting record analysis deemed Barack Obama to be the nation’s most liberal Senator. But Biden himself ranked third on that very list – just one one-hundredth of a point behind second place, and just ahead of none other than socialist-leaning Bernie Sanders of Vermont (a Senator so liberal he does not even daydream of becoming President).
The Obama-Biden ticket might rival the most liberal Democratic presidential tickets ever assembled; it is certainly more liberal than the John Kerry/John Edwards ticket in 2004.
Republicans will no doubt try to use this to their advantage, but, with Biden, the criticism and liberal tag just might not stick. In the 2007 Democratic primary presidential debates Biden’s skilled oratory made him appear to be many things – a satirist, a guy you’d want to have a beer with, and, perhaps most importantly, the most conservative candidate on the stage.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Why Dean Barkley Is Hurting Al Franken's U.S. Senate Chances
A new U.S. Senate poll released today by the Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio finds Norm Coleman and Al Franken virtually deadlocked in the