Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Dropping Gasoline: Dropping Support for Democrats?

Bookmark and Share

Upper Midwesterns have certainly rejoiced at the drop in gas prices during the past few weeks. The current price for a gallon of gas in the Midwest is now $2.45, falling 15 cents a gallon from a week ago and 31 cents a gallon in two weeks. In Minnesota, the price has fallen 41 cents a gallon in two weeks, from $2.79 to $2.38.

This drop appears to be correlated to an increase in support for republicans in a generic congressional matchup with democrats. A national FOX News Poll conducted August 29-30 found democrats to be the preference of 48% of voters, compared to just 32% for the GOP. A FOX News Poll taken this week finds Democrats leading only 41% to 38%, a large net 13-point gain for the republicans.

One of the big questions throughout Campaign 2006 is whether or not the adage "All politics is local" will be trumped by the notion that perceived, prolonged bad news coming out of Iraq will hurt republicans nationally in November. The flip side of this question now becomes whether or not sustained good news for the consumer in gas prices could have the reverse, positive effect for republican candidates across the nation.

Previous post: MN State Legislative Incumbents Hold Serve
Next post: SD Governor: History Is On Rounds' Side...Unless...

3 Comments


  • Do you think it has more to do with gas prices, or the Republican drum-beating surrounding 9/11?

    Look at the polls again in a couple weeks... I'm guessing some of this is a temporary bump based on the politicization of 9/11 by Bush & co.

  • > Look at the polls again in a couple weeks... I'm guessing some of this is a temporary bump based on the politicization of 9/11 by Bush & co.

    Will do. Some economists and pundits have also speculated that citizen rage over the past year's rising gas prices was muted as they did not quite peak high enough to truly generate a change in orientation that might impact voting behavior ($4 or $5 per gallon prices might be necessary to do that).

  • Unfortunately, it would seem that the public is being slowly acclimatized to increased gas prices, as $4 to $5 per gallon was considered outrageous in 2006, but today we are seeing $3.60 to $4.00 per gallon prices constantly.

    This in turn has forced so many other prices to rise due to transportation costs. Threats of $4.00 to $5.00 per gallon no longer seem so devastating to the public, because we've been seeing nearly $4 per gallon for so long.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

    Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

    Political Crumbs

    Mary Burke: English First?

    While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


    Does My Key Still Work?

    Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting