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Will Minnesotans Split Their Ticket in November?

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Three polls released inside of the last two weeks by the Star Tribune, Humphrey Institute, and Minnesota Public Radio all show DFL US Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar with a significant, double-digit lead over GOP nominee Mark Kennedy. These three polls also show DFL gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch running neck and neck with Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty.

One reason Pawlenty may be running comparatively strong in his statewide race compared to Kennedy is, of course, the incumbency advantage that he enjoys. However, incumbency aside, it should not come as a surprise that Minnesotans may split their vote come this November.

In half of the eight elections since 1960 in which both gubernatorial and US Senate races were on the ballot, Minnesotans collectively split their ticket—electing one republican and one DFL candidate to these offices four times.

In 1960, 1966, and 1990, the state elected Republican governors (Elmer Andersen, Harold LeVander, Arne Carlson) and DFL senators (Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, Paul Wellstone). In 1982, Minnesotans elected DFL Governor Rudy Perpich and GOP Senator Dave Durenberger.

While a lot can change in the next six weeks, 2006 may yet be another year in which the state elects a republican governor and a DFL senator. The Kennedy campaign will not be heartened by this news, but the Pawlenty camp should by now realize the state's schizophrenic political history offers him enough wiggle room to give him a strong chance at keeping his job in St. Paul.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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