Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


MN-02: Rowley Closes Gap

Bookmark and Share

Coleen Rowley, the DFL candidate in Minnesota's 2nd US House district, has closed her deficit to 2-term GOP incumbent John Kline from 20 to 8 points in less than three weeks, according to polls released by SurveyUSA in late September and mid-October. The poll's media sponsor is KSTP-TV Channel 5.

Rowley, an ex-FBI agent, has seen her support rise from 35% to 42% since September 2006, while the percentage of likely voters planning to vote for Kline dropped from 55% to 50% during this span. Independence Party candidate Doug Williams garnered 5% in both polls.

Rowley's surge raises several questions: is this increase in support a result of voters in her district becoming more familiar with her candidacy? Or is her rise in the polls reflective of the national trend affecting House races nationwide that see Democrats becoming very competitive in previously safe GOP-controlled districts?

The internals of the SurveyUSA poll show an increase in those self-identifying as Democrats compared to the September poll (33% to 37%), while those identifying as Republicans dropped a bit (42% to 39%). It is possible those who only identify weakly with the Republican Party are now abandoning their party at the margins. It is also possible—as this was a poll of likely voters—that such republicans are not indicating a strong motivation to vote in November and are therefore being screened out of the survey process.

In any case, those who indicate they are likely voters are not on the fence as to which candidates they support: only 2% were undecided in the October 13-15 poll. Any further rise in support for Rowley from this point forward can therefore probably be read as a peeling away of voters from Kline—and a result of the anti-GOP nationwide trend.

Previous post: Upper Midwest US House Races Tighten in GOP Held Districts...But Is a Revolution Afoot?
Next post: Cable Television News Election Forecasts

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting