Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


MN-02: Rowley Closes Gap

Bookmark and Share

Coleen Rowley, the DFL candidate in Minnesota's 2nd US House district, has closed her deficit to 2-term GOP incumbent John Kline from 20 to 8 points in less than three weeks, according to polls released by SurveyUSA in late September and mid-October. The poll's media sponsor is KSTP-TV Channel 5.

Rowley, an ex-FBI agent, has seen her support rise from 35% to 42% since September 2006, while the percentage of likely voters planning to vote for Kline dropped from 55% to 50% during this span. Independence Party candidate Doug Williams garnered 5% in both polls.

Rowley's surge raises several questions: is this increase in support a result of voters in her district becoming more familiar with her candidacy? Or is her rise in the polls reflective of the national trend affecting House races nationwide that see Democrats becoming very competitive in previously safe GOP-controlled districts?

The internals of the SurveyUSA poll show an increase in those self-identifying as Democrats compared to the September poll (33% to 37%), while those identifying as Republicans dropped a bit (42% to 39%). It is possible those who only identify weakly with the Republican Party are now abandoning their party at the margins. It is also possible—as this was a poll of likely voters—that such republicans are not indicating a strong motivation to vote in November and are therefore being screened out of the survey process.

In any case, those who indicate they are likely voters are not on the fence as to which candidates they support: only 2% were undecided in the October 13-15 poll. Any further rise in support for Rowley from this point forward can therefore probably be read as a peeling away of voters from Kline—and a result of the anti-GOP nationwide trend.

Previous post: Upper Midwest US House Races Tighten in GOP Held Districts...But Is a Revolution Afoot?
Next post: Cable Television News Election Forecasts

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting