Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


US House Redistricting: Iowa Gets Lowest Marks for Proportionality

Bookmark and Share

In the coming year or so states will begin to outline plans for the redistricting process that will go into effect in 2012 after the 2010 Census results. One way to measure the 'success' of these processes is to examine to what extent the proportion of votes cast for a particular party translates into the proportion of seats won in government.

Smart Politics analyzed US House elections in the Upper Midwest since 1960 and found—collectively—the proportion of votes cast in Minnesota and Wisconsin between democrats and republicans bore a close relationship to the number of seats won between these two parties, while the number of seats won in Iowa was heavily skewed towards the Republican Party.

In Minnesota, the DFL / GOP split 54% to 46% respectively in votes cast since 1960 with the DFL having a 57% to 43% advantage in seats won during this span (105 to 80 seats).

In Wisconsin, the relationship is very similar: democrats and republicans are split 50% to 50% among the nearly 40 million votes cast for those parties since 1960, with Democrats winning a narrow majority of seats (109 to 102, or 52% to 48%).

In Iowa, the distribution is much more skewed in favor of the republicans. Republicans have a 52% to 48% advantage in votes cast, but a much larger 64% to 36% advantage in seats won (88 to 50). For example, in 1990, the GOP won 4 of the 5 US House seats, but there were actually more votes for democratic candidates (400,852) than republican candidates (385,003).

(In South Dakota, republicans have a 51.5% to 48.5% advantage in votes cast, but a 62% to 38% advantage in seats won (21 to 13). South Dakota is a special case, however, because since 1982 it only has an at-large seat, so there is only one district in the race for US House).

Previous post: Voter Turnout Uncertain for 2006 Election
Next post: Bush Drag Not Affecting All Republicans

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting