Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


A Tale of (Two?) States: Demographic Support for Republican Gubernatorial Candidates in MN and WI Strikingly Similar

Bookmark and Share

The 2006 gubernatorial races in Minnesota and Wisconsin had key similarities: 1-term incumbents defending their seats with job approval rankings hovering around 50%. Pundits viewed seats in both states to be very vulnerable.

Despite these similarities, the candidacies of Republican challenger Mark Green in Wisconsin and GOP incumbent Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota were quite different. Green's platform was much more closely aligned with conservatives and the 'religious right' while Pawlenty flaunted more 'moderate credentials.' However, upon examining exit poll data conducted in each state, the level of support attributed to republican candidates in the Gopher and Badger States were quite striking across several key demographics.

For starters, Green and Pawlenty each received 48% of the white vote in their respective states and nearly an equal level of support from males (50% for Pawlenty, 49% for Green).

Voters in different age groups also spoke with one voice across the two states: Pawlenty and Green received nearly identical support of 18-29 year-olds (41% for Pawlenty, 40% for Green), 45-59 year olds (46% for each) and voters 60 years and older (44% for each). Voters age 30-44 voted for 52% for Pawlenty and 50% for Green.

The GOP gubernatorial candidates fared equally poorly among those earning less than $50,000 per year (36% for Pawlenty, 35% for Green) and fairly well among those earning $50,000 per year or more (51% for Pawlenty, 50% for Green).

Religious voter support for these republican candidates was also quite similar in each state: 53% of Protestants went for Pawlenty and 53% went for Green; Catholics votes 49% for Pawlenty and 48% for Green. Those who attended church more than weekly lent nearly identical support to Pawlenty (69%) and Green (70%).

Pawlenty and Green each received 8% of the Democratic vote in their respective states, while voters who strongly approved of George W. Bush's job performance came out strong for both Pawlenty (93%) and Green (92%).

Pawlenty (34%) and Green (35%) similarly suffered among voters who felt the war in Iraq was extremely important to their vote. Each candidate fared much better among those who stressed terrorism (51% support to each) and the economy (51% support to each) as very important issues for their vote.

While the political climate in Minnesota and Wisconsin is fairly similar overall, it is interesting that republican candidates with noticeably different platforms would fare so similarly among key demographic groups in their respective states.

Previous post: Gubernatorial Approval Ratings Rise Noticeably After Elections
Next post: Wisconsin State Legislative Recount Summary

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

Mary Burke: English First?

While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting