Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Klobuchar Builds Lead Over Kennedy In Latest Humphrey Poll

Bookmark and Share

In the five weeks since the last Humphrey Institute survey, DFL nominee for Senate Amy Klobuchar has increased her lead from 52-36 to 55-33 over GOP nominee Mark Kennedy. While this 22-point lead is 3 to 7 points larger than what most polls have reported during the past month, it is consonant with a new poll just released by St. Cloud State (October 15-27), which has Klobuchar up by 25 points (56-31). Both polls show Independence Party nominee Robert Fitzgerald lagging at 3 percent.

These results reinforce the trend of a healthy double-digit Klobuchar advantage reported by most surveys throughout October: a SurveyUSA poll from October 21-23 showed Klobuchar with a 16-point lead among likely voters, an October 6-11 Minnesota Poll of likely voters had Klobuchar up 19 points, and Rasmussen surveys of likely voters on October 25th and October 4th indicated Klobuchar had leads of 15 and 17 points respectively.

Below are excerpts from the new report by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance on its latest US Senate poll:

"With only a week before Election Day, Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, has widened her lead over her Republican opponent, Mark Kennedy, to 22 percentage points, 55 percent to 33 percent. The Humphrey Institute survey of 663 likely Minnesota voters was conducted October 23-28, 2006 and has a 3.8 margin of error.

Klobuchar's commanding lead results from three factors:

1. She has rallied Democrats and broadened her appeal to Republicans, independents and men and women while receiving lower negative evaluations than Kennedy.

2. The Senate election is setting up as a referendum on President George W. Bush, the War in Iraq, the country's direction, and Congressional ethics. A consistently negative reaction to these national personalities and conditions is boosting Klobuchar's campaign.

3. Kennedy's campaign is underperforming. This is evident in comparisons with the performance of Governor Tim Pawlenty—another Republican running in a difficult year for his Party."

Previous post: Hatch Builds Lead in New Humphrey Institute Poll
Next post: Iowa Poll Roundup and Smart Politics Projections

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting