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Klobuchar Builds Lead Over Kennedy In Latest Humphrey Poll

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In the five weeks since the last Humphrey Institute survey, DFL nominee for Senate Amy Klobuchar has increased her lead from 52-36 to 55-33 over GOP nominee Mark Kennedy. While this 22-point lead is 3 to 7 points larger than what most polls have reported during the past month, it is consonant with a new poll just released by St. Cloud State (October 15-27), which has Klobuchar up by 25 points (56-31). Both polls show Independence Party nominee Robert Fitzgerald lagging at 3 percent.

These results reinforce the trend of a healthy double-digit Klobuchar advantage reported by most surveys throughout October: a SurveyUSA poll from October 21-23 showed Klobuchar with a 16-point lead among likely voters, an October 6-11 Minnesota Poll of likely voters had Klobuchar up 19 points, and Rasmussen surveys of likely voters on October 25th and October 4th indicated Klobuchar had leads of 15 and 17 points respectively.

Below are excerpts from the new report by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance on its latest US Senate poll:

"With only a week before Election Day, Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, has widened her lead over her Republican opponent, Mark Kennedy, to 22 percentage points, 55 percent to 33 percent. The Humphrey Institute survey of 663 likely Minnesota voters was conducted October 23-28, 2006 and has a 3.8 margin of error.

Klobuchar's commanding lead results from three factors:

1. She has rallied Democrats and broadened her appeal to Republicans, independents and men and women while receiving lower negative evaluations than Kennedy.

2. The Senate election is setting up as a referendum on President George W. Bush, the War in Iraq, the country's direction, and Congressional ethics. A consistently negative reaction to these national personalities and conditions is boosting Klobuchar's campaign.

3. Kennedy's campaign is underperforming. This is evident in comparisons with the performance of Governor Tim Pawlenty—another Republican running in a difficult year for his Party."

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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