Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Klobuchar Builds Lead Over Kennedy In Latest Humphrey Poll

Bookmark and Share

In the five weeks since the last Humphrey Institute survey, DFL nominee for Senate Amy Klobuchar has increased her lead from 52-36 to 55-33 over GOP nominee Mark Kennedy. While this 22-point lead is 3 to 7 points larger than what most polls have reported during the past month, it is consonant with a new poll just released by St. Cloud State (October 15-27), which has Klobuchar up by 25 points (56-31). Both polls show Independence Party nominee Robert Fitzgerald lagging at 3 percent.

These results reinforce the trend of a healthy double-digit Klobuchar advantage reported by most surveys throughout October: a SurveyUSA poll from October 21-23 showed Klobuchar with a 16-point lead among likely voters, an October 6-11 Minnesota Poll of likely voters had Klobuchar up 19 points, and Rasmussen surveys of likely voters on October 25th and October 4th indicated Klobuchar had leads of 15 and 17 points respectively.

Below are excerpts from the new report by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance on its latest US Senate poll:

"With only a week before Election Day, Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, has widened her lead over her Republican opponent, Mark Kennedy, to 22 percentage points, 55 percent to 33 percent. The Humphrey Institute survey of 663 likely Minnesota voters was conducted October 23-28, 2006 and has a 3.8 margin of error.

Klobuchar's commanding lead results from three factors:

1. She has rallied Democrats and broadened her appeal to Republicans, independents and men and women while receiving lower negative evaluations than Kennedy.

2. The Senate election is setting up as a referendum on President George W. Bush, the War in Iraq, the country's direction, and Congressional ethics. A consistently negative reaction to these national personalities and conditions is boosting Klobuchar's campaign.

3. Kennedy's campaign is underperforming. This is evident in comparisons with the performance of Governor Tim Pawlenty—another Republican running in a difficult year for his Party."

Previous post: Hatch Builds Lead in New Humphrey Institute Poll
Next post: Iowa Poll Roundup and Smart Politics Projections

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting