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Many Familiar Faces To Depart Capitol Hill After '06 Election

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The anti-GOP wave that struck D.C. two weeks ago resulted in 22 Republican U.S. House incumbents being given their 2-month notice. This turnover, while quite high by historical standards, is perhaps not as remarkable as the fact that most of these incumbents had served their districts for a decade or more and had cruised to victory in 2004.

Eighty-one percent of these incumbents (17) enjoyed double-digit victories in 2004 and sixty-two percent (13) of them won by at least 20 points in the previous election cycle. Fourteen of these incumbents also had served at least 10 consecutive years in the U.S. House. The departing incumbents are:

PA-10. Donald Sherwood (4-term). 92-point negative turnaround from 2004.
TX-23. Henry Bonilla (7-term). 47-point turnaround.
NY-20. John Sweeney (4-term). 38-point turnaround.
NY-19. Sue Kelly (6-term). 36-point turnaround.
CT-05. Nancy Johnson (12-term). 34-point turnaround.
FL-22. Eugene Clay Shaw (13-term). 32-point turnaround.
PA-07. Curt Weldon (10-term). 31-point turnaround.
MN-01. Gil Gutknecht (6-term). 31-point turnaround.
PA-04. Melissa Hart (3-term). 31-point turnaround.
IN-08. John Hostettler (6-term). 30-point turnaround.
NH-01. Jeb Bradley (2-term). 30-point turnaround.
CA-11. Richard Pombo (7-term). 28-point turnaround.
NH-02. Charles Bass (6-term). 28-point turnaround.
AZ-05. J.D. Hayworth (6-term). 27-point turnaround.
KY-03. Anne Northrup (5-term). 25-point turnaround.
IA-02. James Leach (15-term). 22-point turnaround.
KS-02. Jim Ryun (5-term). 19-point turnaround.
NC-11. Charles Taylor (8-term). 18-point turnaround.
IN-02. Chris Chocola (2-term). 17-point turnaround.
PA-08. Mike Fitzpatrick (1-term). 13-point turnaround.
CT-02. Robert Simmons (3-term). 8-point turnaround.
IN-09. Michael Sodrel (1-term). 4-point turnaround.

Of particular note is that 11 incumbents incurred a 30+ point turnaround from the previous election cycle (scandal-plagued Donald Sherwood hadn't even faced a Democratic challenger in 2004 or 2002).

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1 Comment


  • It serves them right, all these rubber-stamping Bush puppets. What went wrong, was it the money sliding under the door, was it the power, was it the threat of turning up missing? How can these great politicians live in such fear?

    The only way to stop the corruption is to secure for decades the majority and ask questions, not just pass bills when they have not even been read or understood. Restore the bill of rights and control these "out-of-control" spy agencies.

    If Bush continues to implement things that 80% of America is against he will give the democrats the edge they need to take further windfalls in the 08 election. But what does he care, America will find out that hundreds of billions of tax dollars are missing and many pockets are full including the pockets of the entire Bush family.

    We got burned, not only by bad politics but by political thieves.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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