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Many Familiar Faces To Depart Capitol Hill After '06 Election

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The anti-GOP wave that struck D.C. two weeks ago resulted in 22 Republican U.S. House incumbents being given their 2-month notice. This turnover, while quite high by historical standards, is perhaps not as remarkable as the fact that most of these incumbents had served their districts for a decade or more and had cruised to victory in 2004.

Eighty-one percent of these incumbents (17) enjoyed double-digit victories in 2004 and sixty-two percent (13) of them won by at least 20 points in the previous election cycle. Fourteen of these incumbents also had served at least 10 consecutive years in the U.S. House. The departing incumbents are:

PA-10. Donald Sherwood (4-term). 92-point negative turnaround from 2004.
TX-23. Henry Bonilla (7-term). 47-point turnaround.
NY-20. John Sweeney (4-term). 38-point turnaround.
NY-19. Sue Kelly (6-term). 36-point turnaround.
CT-05. Nancy Johnson (12-term). 34-point turnaround.
FL-22. Eugene Clay Shaw (13-term). 32-point turnaround.
PA-07. Curt Weldon (10-term). 31-point turnaround.
MN-01. Gil Gutknecht (6-term). 31-point turnaround.
PA-04. Melissa Hart (3-term). 31-point turnaround.
IN-08. John Hostettler (6-term). 30-point turnaround.
NH-01. Jeb Bradley (2-term). 30-point turnaround.
CA-11. Richard Pombo (7-term). 28-point turnaround.
NH-02. Charles Bass (6-term). 28-point turnaround.
AZ-05. J.D. Hayworth (6-term). 27-point turnaround.
KY-03. Anne Northrup (5-term). 25-point turnaround.
IA-02. James Leach (15-term). 22-point turnaround.
KS-02. Jim Ryun (5-term). 19-point turnaround.
NC-11. Charles Taylor (8-term). 18-point turnaround.
IN-02. Chris Chocola (2-term). 17-point turnaround.
PA-08. Mike Fitzpatrick (1-term). 13-point turnaround.
CT-02. Robert Simmons (3-term). 8-point turnaround.
IN-09. Michael Sodrel (1-term). 4-point turnaround.

Of particular note is that 11 incumbents incurred a 30+ point turnaround from the previous election cycle (scandal-plagued Donald Sherwood hadn't even faced a Democratic challenger in 2004 or 2002).

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1 Comment


  • It serves them right, all these rubber-stamping Bush puppets. What went wrong, was it the money sliding under the door, was it the power, was it the threat of turning up missing? How can these great politicians live in such fear?

    The only way to stop the corruption is to secure for decades the majority and ask questions, not just pass bills when they have not even been read or understood. Restore the bill of rights and control these "out-of-control" spy agencies.

    If Bush continues to implement things that 80% of America is against he will give the democrats the edge they need to take further windfalls in the 08 election. But what does he care, America will find out that hundreds of billions of tax dollars are missing and many pockets are full including the pockets of the entire Bush family.

    We got burned, not only by bad politics but by political thieves.

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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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