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Upper Midwest State Legislative Projections

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The last in a series of election projections, Smart Politics predicts which political party will win control of state legislatures across the Upper Midwest. Democrats are in an advantaged position in most states in each legislative chamber to pick up seats, based on the GOP needing to protect a higher number of vulnerable (open, competitive) districts than the Democrats. Smart Politics projects 3 legislative bodies will switch from Republican to Democratic control.

  • IA State Senate (25-25, DEM tie-breaker): Democrats pick up at least 3 seats, retain control.
  • IA State House (51-49, GOP): Democrats pick up at least 5 seats. Democrats take control from the GOP.
  • MN State Senate (38-29, DFL): DFL picks up at least 2 seats and retain control.
  • MN State House (68-66, GOP): DFL picks up at least 7 seats. DFL takes control from the GOP.
  • SD State Senate (25-10, GOP): Democrats pick up 2 seats. GOP retains control.
  • SD State House (51-19, GOP): Democrats pick up 4 seats. GOP retains control.
  • WI State Senate (19-14, GOP): Democrats pick up 3 seats. Democrats take control from the GOP.
  • WI State Assembly (59-39, GOP): Democrats pick up at least 7 seats. GOP narrowly retains control.
  • Previous post: Minnesota Poll Roundup and Smart Politics Projections
    Next post: The Day After: Smart Politics Scorecard, Part I

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    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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