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Upper Midwest State Legislative Projections

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The last in a series of election projections, Smart Politics predicts which political party will win control of state legislatures across the Upper Midwest. Democrats are in an advantaged position in most states in each legislative chamber to pick up seats, based on the GOP needing to protect a higher number of vulnerable (open, competitive) districts than the Democrats. Smart Politics projects 3 legislative bodies will switch from Republican to Democratic control.

  • IA State Senate (25-25, DEM tie-breaker): Democrats pick up at least 3 seats, retain control.
  • IA State House (51-49, GOP): Democrats pick up at least 5 seats. Democrats take control from the GOP.
  • MN State Senate (38-29, DFL): DFL picks up at least 2 seats and retain control.
  • MN State House (68-66, GOP): DFL picks up at least 7 seats. DFL takes control from the GOP.
  • SD State Senate (25-10, GOP): Democrats pick up 2 seats. GOP retains control.
  • SD State House (51-19, GOP): Democrats pick up 4 seats. GOP retains control.
  • WI State Senate (19-14, GOP): Democrats pick up 3 seats. Democrats take control from the GOP.
  • WI State Assembly (59-39, GOP): Democrats pick up at least 7 seats. GOP narrowly retains control.
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    Remains of the Data

    Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

    A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

    Political Crumbs

    Small Club in St. Paul

    Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


    Respect Your Elders?

    With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


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