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Upper Midwest State Legislative Projections

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The last in a series of election projections, Smart Politics predicts which political party will win control of state legislatures across the Upper Midwest. Democrats are in an advantaged position in most states in each legislative chamber to pick up seats, based on the GOP needing to protect a higher number of vulnerable (open, competitive) districts than the Democrats. Smart Politics projects 3 legislative bodies will switch from Republican to Democratic control.

  • IA State Senate (25-25, DEM tie-breaker): Democrats pick up at least 3 seats, retain control.
  • IA State House (51-49, GOP): Democrats pick up at least 5 seats. Democrats take control from the GOP.
  • MN State Senate (38-29, DFL): DFL picks up at least 2 seats and retain control.
  • MN State House (68-66, GOP): DFL picks up at least 7 seats. DFL takes control from the GOP.
  • SD State Senate (25-10, GOP): Democrats pick up 2 seats. GOP retains control.
  • SD State House (51-19, GOP): Democrats pick up 4 seats. GOP retains control.
  • WI State Senate (19-14, GOP): Democrats pick up 3 seats. Democrats take control from the GOP.
  • WI State Assembly (59-39, GOP): Democrats pick up at least 7 seats. GOP narrowly retains control.
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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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