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No Surprises in Early Iowa GOP Poll

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Last week's Iowa poll that unofficially launched the 2008 Election season found little surprises on the Republican side of the ballot. John McCain (27%) and Rudy Giuliani (26%) led the field of several potential Republican candidates (virtually none of whom have officially declared their candidacy for president).

While four Democrats registered in double digits in a poll of likely Democratic caucus voters, only McCain and Giuliani reached double digits for the Republicans in the poll, sponsored by KCCI-TV on December 18-20. Mitt Romney (9%), Newt Gingrich (7%), and Condi Rice (4%) were the only other candidates to garner at least 1% support from likely Republican Iowa caucus voters.

Both Barack Obama and John Edwards led McCain 42-39 in a head-to-head matchup; Obama (43-38) and Edwards (42-38) also had the upper hand on the former federal prosecutor and Mayor of New York City.

Democrat (and out-going Iowa governor) Tom Vilsack also led McCain 41-35 and Giuliani 42-35, while both McCain (43-37) and Giuliani (39-35) had the edge on Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups.

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Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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