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Obama Catches Edwards in Early 2008 Iowa Caucus Poll

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Illinois Senator Barack Obama and ex-Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards lead the field for the all-important support of Democratic Iowa caucus voters, according to a new poll by KCCI-TV released earlier this week (the poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.0 points).

Edwards, who has campaigned continuously in Iowa during the past few years, could only eke out a tie at 22% with the junior senator from Illinois. The momentum demonstrated by Obama's unofficial campaign, is perhaps the bigger story coming out of this poll than Hillary Clinton's disappointing 10%. Tim Vilsack (12%) came in third place, and is the only candidate in the field who has announced his candidacy other than Dennis Kucinich (4%).

Poll-watchers no doubt are intrigued by these results, but consider the 2004 Election to see just how much things can change in campaigns as well as the minds of Iowa voters in just a year. In one of the first polls conducted by KCCI-TV for that election (March 2003), Richard Gephardt led the field with 22%, only to receive half that support (11%) and land in fourth place on the day of the caucus some ten months later.

On the other side, Howard Dean polled at just 6% back in March 2003—good for only 5th place, and well behind Joe Lieberman (16%), who didn't even campaign in Iowa. On Caucus Day in 2004, Dean had amassed 18% of the Democratic vote (and had been polling even higher until a poor last week of the Iowa campaign), and Lieberman received 0%.

Edwards quadrupled his support from 2003 to 2004, from 8% in the early poll to a very strong 32% in the January Caucus. The fresh-faced Edwards, who was a media darling in 2004, is no doubt fearing that Obama, several years his junior, is the new Edwards.

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Next post: No Surprises in Early Iowa GOP Poll

5 Comments


  • The headlines say it all. I think that the Democratic ticket in 2008 should be Edwards - Obama

    Talk about a hot ticket. This one would be unbeatable. Edwards has the background - Obama appeals to the lower generation and to minorities. That leaves the women to Hillary and yet I have met too many women who will not vote for her. They are tired of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton power change. Things in DC need to evolve and with Hillary there is no evolution, just the same-old...

  • Just to let everyone know we will have our polling system ready in about a week at: www.adison.edu/political-polls.htm - this is where .edu sites and .gov sites will be able to build their own poll and put it on their own site. Also at adison we have just started www.getoutthevote.net and encourage everyone to get involved and informed about the continuing voting crisis...

  • Preston thanks for links, looks like it is all panning out !

  • Nice prediction son!!

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

    Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

    Political Crumbs

    Haugh to Reach New Heights

    The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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