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Obama Catches Edwards in Early 2008 Iowa Caucus Poll

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Illinois Senator Barack Obama and ex-Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards lead the field for the all-important support of Democratic Iowa caucus voters, according to a new poll by KCCI-TV released earlier this week (the poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.0 points).

Edwards, who has campaigned continuously in Iowa during the past few years, could only eke out a tie at 22% with the junior senator from Illinois. The momentum demonstrated by Obama's unofficial campaign, is perhaps the bigger story coming out of this poll than Hillary Clinton's disappointing 10%. Tim Vilsack (12%) came in third place, and is the only candidate in the field who has announced his candidacy other than Dennis Kucinich (4%).

Poll-watchers no doubt are intrigued by these results, but consider the 2004 Election to see just how much things can change in campaigns as well as the minds of Iowa voters in just a year. In one of the first polls conducted by KCCI-TV for that election (March 2003), Richard Gephardt led the field with 22%, only to receive half that support (11%) and land in fourth place on the day of the caucus some ten months later.

On the other side, Howard Dean polled at just 6% back in March 2003—good for only 5th place, and well behind Joe Lieberman (16%), who didn't even campaign in Iowa. On Caucus Day in 2004, Dean had amassed 18% of the Democratic vote (and had been polling even higher until a poor last week of the Iowa campaign), and Lieberman received 0%.

Edwards quadrupled his support from 2003 to 2004, from 8% in the early poll to a very strong 32% in the January Caucus. The fresh-faced Edwards, who was a media darling in 2004, is no doubt fearing that Obama, several years his junior, is the new Edwards.

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5 Comments


  • The headlines say it all. I think that the Democratic ticket in 2008 should be Edwards - Obama

    Talk about a hot ticket. This one would be unbeatable. Edwards has the background - Obama appeals to the lower generation and to minorities. That leaves the women to Hillary and yet I have met too many women who will not vote for her. They are tired of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton power change. Things in DC need to evolve and with Hillary there is no evolution, just the same-old...

  • Just to let everyone know we will have our polling system ready in about a week at: www.adison.edu/political-polls.htm - this is where .edu sites and .gov sites will be able to build their own poll and put it on their own site. Also at adison we have just started www.getoutthevote.net and encourage everyone to get involved and informed about the continuing voting crisis...

  • Preston thanks for links, looks like it is all panning out !

  • Nice prediction son!!

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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