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WI State Legislative Shakeup in 2006 At Near Historic Levels

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The reclaiming of the Wisconsin state Senate by the Democratic Party received some fanfare last month in the Badger State, but the extent of Democratic pickups in the state Senate and state Assembly is nearly unprecedented over the past half-century of Wisconsin state politics.

Democrats had controlled the 33-seat state Senate for 12 of the last 16 legislative sessions dating back to 1974, although Republicans had been the majority party since 2002. The 4-seat pick-up by the Democrats in 2006 (shifting a 19-14 deficit to an 18-15 advantage) was the second largest gain achieved by either party in the chamber dating back to 1960.

In the 99-seat state Assembly, the Democrats picked up 8 seats, reducing the GOP's 59-39 advantage (1 seat was vacant) to 52-47. This marked the second largest pickup in seats by either party in Assembly elections in nearly 50 years (in 1970 the Democrats gained 19 seats in a tidal wave election).

While virtually no one gave the Democrats a chance to win the Assembly, Republicans are indeed fortunate to have retained control: Democrats lost 3 districts by just 0.7 (District 47), and 1.1 (Districts 80 and 87) percentage points. A change in a few hundred votes in each of those districts would have meant the Republicans—who have controlled the Assembly since 1994—would have been on the short end of a 50-49 margin.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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