Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Will 2008 Republican National Convention Have An Impact On MN Presidential Vote?

Bookmark and Share

When the Republican National Committee announced in September 2006 that its Site Selection Committee had voted to recommend the Twin Cities to host the 2008 Republican National Convention, it continued an interesting trend in GOP party politics. For the fourth consecutive convention, the Republicans will convene on a state which voted Democratic in the previous presidential election cycle.

The 2008 convention, to be held in St. Paul at the Xcel Energy Center September 1-4, is based on an RNC committee decision that takes into account a variety of factors such as the "number and proximity of hotels, size of the arena and its capacity to hold the convention, transportation, security, media work space, convention office space, and ability to finance the operation." (RNC press release, September 27, 2006)

No doubt all of this is true. However, everything being equal, are Republicans purposefully planting their flag on 'enemy territory' in order to make inroads in that state?

The trend began in 1996, when the GOP convention was held in San Diego. In the presidential election that year, Republican Bob Dole performed about as well in California as compared to incumbent President George H.W. Bush's performance in 1992 (each losing by 13 points). In 2000, the national convention was held in Philadelphia, and the GOP gained 5.0 points in Pennsylvania from 1996. In 2004, the GOP convention was held in New York City, and President George W. Bush gained 6.7 points in New York State from his campaign there in 2000.

This selection trend is in contrast to where national Republican conventions were held in the previous few generations. From 1960 to 1992, 8 of the 9 presidential conventions were held in states that were carried by Republican presidential nominees in the previous election.

The Democratic Party, however, has taken a divergent path in recent years. Its last 4 national conventions have been held in states that have gone Democratic in the previous presidential election cycle (Boston, 2004; Los Angeles, 2000; Chicago, 1996; New York City, 1992). The 2008 Democratic Convention finalists appear to be Denver (which, if selected, would buck this trend) and New York City (which would continue it).

In the future, if the Democrats are serious about making inroads in the South as their Chairman Howard Dean proclaims, perhaps they should adopt the GOP strategy and consider descending on a city like Atlanta or Charlotte. It is true that many of the country's major metropolitan areas happen to be in blue states, but there are still several large cities in red states to consider—should they ever put in bids (Houston, #4; Phoenix #6, San Antonio #7; Dallas #9; Indianapolis, #12; Jacksonville, #13; Columbus, #15).

As for 2008, will the GOP's presence in St. Paul have a positive impact on the presidential vote in Minnesota overall for the Party as it did in Pennsylvania and New York in 2000 and 2004?

Previous post: Smart Politics Meets Twin Cities Public Television
Next post: Collegiality in 110th Congress Enhanced by Rosie-Donald Junk News Feud

1 Comment


  • I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. And i think you have great job to writing article. Keep writing and sharing about anything. Very..very nice blog.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting