Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Clinton, Obama, Romney Get Bump in New IA Poll

Bookmark and Share

Five weeks and an official announcement of her candidacy later, Hillary Clinton has increased her early advantage over John Edwards in a new poll of likely Democratic Iowa Caucus voters by American Research Group.

Clinton, who declared her run for the presidency approximately one week before the poll's field dates, expanded her 11-point 31-20 lead over Edwards to 17 points (35-18) in the new February poll. Barak Obama's support also increased from 10 to 14 percent. Homegrown former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack continues to languish behind these favorites—with his support declining from 17 to 12 percent. A recent Iowa Poll by the Des Moines Register found more Iowans do not want Vilsack to run for president (47 percent) than do (40 percent).

On the Republican side, likely GOP Caucus voters still give Rudy Giuliani the nod (27 percent) even though the former federal prosecutor and New York City mayor has not yet officially entered the race. The only positive movement in the new February poll was towards former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney—whose support increased from 6 to 11 percent.

As a reminder of the volatility in the Iowa Caucuses, consider this: these Iowa polls are nearly 12 months out from Caucus Day. In polls by American Research Group ending just four days before the Caucuses in 2004, John Kerry polled at 21 percent and John Edwards polled at 22 percent. Kerry ended up with 38 percent of the Caucus vote and Edwards with 32 percent in a huge 11th hour shift in momentum towards those candidates—and away from Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean.

Previous post: Franken's Path to D.C. Could Be a Rocky Road
Next post: Coleman 1 of 2 Republicans to Vote for Debate on Senate Iraq Resolution

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting