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Clinton, Obama, Romney Get Bump in New IA Poll

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Five weeks and an official announcement of her candidacy later, Hillary Clinton has increased her early advantage over John Edwards in a new poll of likely Democratic Iowa Caucus voters by American Research Group.

Clinton, who declared her run for the presidency approximately one week before the poll's field dates, expanded her 11-point 31-20 lead over Edwards to 17 points (35-18) in the new February poll. Barak Obama's support also increased from 10 to 14 percent. Homegrown former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack continues to languish behind these favorites—with his support declining from 17 to 12 percent. A recent Iowa Poll by the Des Moines Register found more Iowans do not want Vilsack to run for president (47 percent) than do (40 percent).

On the Republican side, likely GOP Caucus voters still give Rudy Giuliani the nod (27 percent) even though the former federal prosecutor and New York City mayor has not yet officially entered the race. The only positive movement in the new February poll was towards former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney—whose support increased from 6 to 11 percent.

As a reminder of the volatility in the Iowa Caucuses, consider this: these Iowa polls are nearly 12 months out from Caucus Day. In polls by American Research Group ending just four days before the Caucuses in 2004, John Kerry polled at 21 percent and John Edwards polled at 22 percent. Kerry ended up with 38 percent of the Caucus vote and Edwards with 32 percent in a huge 11th hour shift in momentum towards those candidates—and away from Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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