Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Iraq, Coleman, and Minnesotans' Views on the War

Bookmark and Share

Norm Coleman has taken specific measures during the last few months to distinguish himself from his Republican Party that has by and large backed President George W. Bush's efforts in the War in Iraq during the past 3+ years. In January Coleman was quick to relay concerns about the President's plan to send an additional 21,500 troops to Iraq. This month he broke with his Party's leadership by trying to bust a GOP filibuster to prevent a floor debate on a resolution criticizing that troop build-up.

Many commentators have speculated that Coleman (along with other GOP Senate incumbents up for election in 2008) is strategically framing his positions on Iraq much more in line with his constituency which, along with most of America, has become increasing critical of Bush's handling of the war and skeptical of the reasons for which it was started.

To the extent Coleman needs to answer his critics and skeptics, he will have that opportunity on the campaign trail next year if not before. The question Smart Politics investigates today is the extent to which Minnesota has soured on the Iraq campaign.

The most recent Minnesota Poll data from October 2006 found those Minnesotans viewing the United States' efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq as going badly outnumbered those who viewed it as going well by a 2.5 to 1 margin: 70 percent to 28 percent. That is a moderate increase from nearly two years prior when 58 percent viewed the U.S. effort as going badly, compared to 39 percent who viewed it as going well (MN Poll, January 2005). Nearly one year into the campaign the numbers were reversed: 64 percent positive versus 34 percent negative (MN Poll, December 2003).

Minnesotans are also quite critical of President Bush's handling of the war. In four polls conducted by the Minnesota Poll in 2003 Bush averaged an Iraq approval rating of 61 percent. In 2004, Bush's Iraq approval rating dropped noticeablely to 42 and 40 percent in two Minnesota Poll's taken late in that year's presidential campaign. Bush's rating on Iraq also dropped from 49 percent in a 2004 MPR / Pioneer press poll to just 26 percent last autumn (MPR / Pioneer Press Poll, September 2006).

What do Minnesotans want the U.S. to do about what the vast majority view as a poorly handled situation in Iraq? A September 2006 MPR / Pioneer Press poll found 55 percent supporting the establishment of a timetable for the withdrawal of troops, with 35 percent opposed to such a strategy.

It is impossible to say how events will unfold in Iraq during the next two years, or whether or not the Iraq war will be the most important issue to Minnesotans when casting their vote for Senator in 2008. It is quite unlikely, however, that the issue will be off the table, and, as such, decisions and statements made now by Coleman and whomever the DFL nominee will be in 2008 are certainly going to be scrutinized down the road.

Previous post: Harkin Lashes Out At Bush Iraq War Plan and GOP Colleagues
Next post: Obama Fights Back At Australian PM, Though Fails Math Test

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting