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New Zogby IA Poll Shows Momentum for Clinton

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A new poll of likely Democratic Iowa caucus voters released this week by Zogby finds Senator Hillary Clinton gaining momentum in Iowa in her bid to win the Democratic nomination. Clinton's support in Iowa increased from 16 to 24 percent in just three weeks, leaving her tied with John Edwards in the Hawkeye State. Barak Obama was the preference of 18 percent of the 500 likely Democratic caucus voters surveyed, with former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack a distant fourth at 9 percent—falling from 16 percent in mid-January.

The pecking order of Clinton-Edwards-Obama-Vilsack in Iowa in the new Zogby poll is the same as an American Research Group poll released ten days ago, though in that poll Clinton had extended her lead over Edwards to 17 points.

Vilsack has repeatedly stated he will win his home state's caucus next January. To do so is imperative for his campaign, as Vilsack is running very low in the national polls, well-behind not-as-yet candidate Al Gore who places fourth in most surveys.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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