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New Zogby IA Poll Shows Momentum for Clinton

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A new poll of likely Democratic Iowa caucus voters released this week by Zogby finds Senator Hillary Clinton gaining momentum in Iowa in her bid to win the Democratic nomination. Clinton's support in Iowa increased from 16 to 24 percent in just three weeks, leaving her tied with John Edwards in the Hawkeye State. Barak Obama was the preference of 18 percent of the 500 likely Democratic caucus voters surveyed, with former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack a distant fourth at 9 percent—falling from 16 percent in mid-January.

The pecking order of Clinton-Edwards-Obama-Vilsack in Iowa in the new Zogby poll is the same as an American Research Group poll released ten days ago, though in that poll Clinton had extended her lead over Edwards to 17 points.

Vilsack has repeatedly stated he will win his home state's caucus next January. To do so is imperative for his campaign, as Vilsack is running very low in the national polls, well-behind not-as-yet candidate Al Gore who places fourth in most surveys.

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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