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John Edwards Surging in Early Iowa Polling

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While momentum shifts have not been so noticeable in national polls for the Democratic nominee for president (nearly all of which have Hillary Clinton with a significant lead over Barack Obama), such shifts have occurred in early polling at the state level, including Iowa, which will hold the first contest for delegates in the nation in January 2008. In the latest survey by American Research Group—its fourth poll since December 2006—a surge in support for John Edwards has put him in a virtual tie with Clinton.

The last field date of the ARG survey, conducted March 19-22, overlapped one day with the news cycle in which Edwards and his (very popular) wife Elizabeth announced her cancer had returned. The press coverage following that announcement for Edwards, and his decision to continue his campaign, was exceedingly positive.

In the ARG poll, Clinton remains at the top, the preference of 34 percent of likely Democratic caucus voters. Clinton's support has remained consistent across all four surveys—hovering around one-third in all of them (31, 35, 31, and 34 percent respectively from December to March).

Edwards now polls at 33 percent, up from 27 percent in February and 18 percent in late January. The rise in support for Edwards is correlated with former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's decision to drop out of the race in February (Vilsack was polling in the low double digits in the Hawkeye State) as well as a tapering off in the buzz over Barack Obama. Obama's support of 16 percent in Iowa in March is down from 23 percent in February and close to his original level of support in late January before Vilsack ended his presidential bid (14 percent).

It is unclear whether or not Vilsack's reported endorsement of Clinton (likely to come on Monday) will give Clinton any boost in support, or whether Edwards will get a further bump (particularly from female voters) in light of the developments with his wife's health. Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen speculates the 'sympathy factor' for Mrs. Edwards will likely have significant political currency with the Edwards campaign in Iowa.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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