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Norm Coleman Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Al Franken in New Poll

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One of the Democratic National Committee's most targeted U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is assuredly the one held by Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman. Thus far Al Franken has emerged as the most prominent candidate to challenge Coleman in the Senator's bid for a second term.

The latest public polling results in a match-up between Coleman and Franken finds Coleman with a 10-point lead, 46-36 percent in a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on March 7th by Rasmussen Reports.

Franken's level of support is similar to the results of a poll conducted nearly a month prior by SurveyUSA, in which he garnered 35 percent. Coleman, however, registered 57 percent in that SurveyUSA poll. The largest difference between the two polls (both of which are conducted via 'automated surveys'—in which questions are asked by a computer-dialed automated recorded voice) is the number of those surveyed indicating they were 'undecided.' In the Rasmussen poll 18 percent were undecided, compared to just 8 percent a month earlier by SurveyUSA. SurveyUSA polling has a history of generating a low percentage of 'undecided' respondents; it is unclear whether or not the organization is including 'leaners' in their data.

Coleman remains relatively popular among Minnesotans, and this is reflected in the Rasmussen poll: Coleman garners a 51 percent favorability rating. In 2002 Coleman earned a favorability rating at or above 50 percent in all six surveys conducted by the Minnesota Poll.

Franken had a 39 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable rating in the new Rasmussen poll, with more than twice as many respondents (15 percent) indicating they had not yet formed an opinion about Franken as compared to Coleman (7 percent).

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  • Go Norm Coleman!

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    Remains of the Data

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    Political Crumbs

    Curse of the '4'?

    Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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