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Turnover in 2008 MN House Party Control Follow-up

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My Smart Politics entry on Monday for Twin Cities Public Television's Almanac: At the Capitol site prompted a quick reply by the GOP leadership. Minnesota House Minority Leader Marty Seifert offered a thoughtful rejoinder here to my historical analysis demonstrating the rarity of turnover in party control in consecutive elections for the Minnesota House.

Representative Seifert offered several arguments indicating why 2008 will be different—that the DFL will have trouble holding serve due to a variety of factors, some of which I acknowledged in my original commentary. Seifert also asserted the top of the GOP ticket will be much stronger in 2008 than in 2006, benefiting the new crop of Republican House candidates.

I have since replied to the Minority Leader's posting here, offering more historical evidence from across the Upper Midwest that the kind of "buyer's remorse" that would be required in the electorate to prompt an immediate flip-flop back to the GOP in 2008 is a rarity: about once per 50 years for the elections to the House in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (it is even more rare for Senate elections). Smart Politics applauds the Minority Leader's staunch defense of his Party and his optimistic gaze into the future. In the meantime, Smart Politics will continue to look to the past to measure trends and baselines in voting behavior.

Previous post: GOP Unlikely to Take Back Minnesota House in 2008
Next post: Upper Midwestern States Contemplate Presidential Primary Dates

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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