According to a new poll released last week by SurveyUSA, the number of Minnesotans who identify themselves as Republicans has dropped to just 25 percent—the lowest level in twenty-five polls released by the organization dating back to May 2005. In October 2006—three weeks before Election Day, 39 percent of Minnesotans identified themselves as Republicans. This level fell to 33 percent in February, 26 percent in March, and 25 percent this month.
Gopher State residents have identified themselves as Democrats in the mid- to high- 30s for the past half year: 36 percent in December, 39 percent in January, 37 percent in February, and 38 percent in both March and April.
Trends in statewide party ID may be an important gauge in determining how vulnerable GOP Senator Norm Coleman will be November 2008. A Minnesota Poll taken in November 2002—when Coleman was elected to his first term in the Senate—found 35 percent of Minnesotans identified themselves as Republicans. This was the highest level for the GOP in more than 40 surveys conducted by the Minnesota Poll from 2000 to 2006.
According to SurveyUSA the number of self-identified Republicans has also fallen below the 30 percent mark in Iowa (29 percent) and Wisconsin (24 percent).