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Clinton Regains Lead in New Iowa Poll

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One month after John Edwards outpolled Hillary Clinton for the first time in American Research Group's (ARG) monthly survey of likely Iowa Democratic caucus voters, Clinton has once again pulled ahead of the former Vice Presidential nominee. Clinton had lead Edwards by 11 points in December 2006, 17 points in late January, 4 points in February, and 1 point in March before Edwards' measured support outnumbered Clinton by 27 to 23 percent last month.

In the new May ARG poll Clinton holds a six-point lead on Edwards—31 to 25 percent—with Barack Obama a distant third at 11 percent. The Clinton-Edwards battle for Iowa has been neck-and-neck since the presidential campaign kicked off late last year—evidenced by the unstable polling results that have emerged out of the Hawkeye State every week or so from pollster to pollster.

Clinton has lead Edwards in 5 of the 6 ARG polls, while Edwards has lead or been tied for the lead in all 4 Zogby polls. Edwards also outpolls Clinton in this month's Iowa Poll (Des Moines Register), but trails the junior Senator from New York in this month's KCCI-TV / Research 2000 survey.

Clinton's measured support in Iowa is therefore far from bleak—and her ARG poll performance provides a good distraction from a recent leak of an internal campaign memo suggesting she should skip the Iowa Caucus (a memo Clinton says she never saw) to focus on other states.

While the Democratic frontrunner in Iowa is far from clear, at this stage Obama appears to be garnering the third most support of likely Democratic caucus voters, with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson settling in fourth—flirting with 10 percent in most surveys.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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